Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The monthly pace of house price gains slowed for the fourth consecutive month in May, to just 0.1% m/m. Looking ahead, loosening housing market supply conditions will keep house price inflation subdued for the foreseeable future. … CoreLogic House …
1st July 2014
The rising inventory of homes for sale and the hit to housing demand from the severe winter weather are feeding through to slower house price inflation. Although home sales will now recover, a further rise in supply will ensure that house price inflation …
30th June 2014
The sharp slowdown in house price inflation in April is unlikely to be a one-off. House price gains will slow further now that housing supply conditions are loosening. … Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales …
24th June 2014
The strong rise in existing home sales in May probably reflects the milder weather and the 35 basis point decline in 30-year mortgage interest rates so far in 2014. We expect the improvement in home sales to remain on track even as mortgage rates start to …
23rd June 2014
The fall in housing starts in May is not a surprise given the size of the gain the month before, although the size of the decline was bigger than we or the consensus expected. Looking ahead, there are plenty of reasons to expect housing starts to rise, …
17th June 2014
Tentative signs that rising house prices are increasing the ability of many households to meet minimum deposit criteria increase the chances that the most recent jump in mortgage applications might finally mark the start of a more sustained improvement. …
13th June 2014
The most recent data have provided support for our view that the sharp drop in sales and starts seen over the past few months would prove temporary. New and existing home sales, as well as housing starts, all rose. To be fair, the gains were typically …
11th June 2014
The fall in mortgage applications for home purchase over the past week left them languishing at a six-week low. But with housing still undervalued, the economy gathering momentum and mortgage interest rates dropping sharply, we are optimistic that this …
4th June 2014
CoreLogic house price data for April show that the annual pace of house price gains moderated for the second consecutive month. While the process still has some way to go, the data add to the evidence that looser supply conditions are starting to deliver …
3rd June 2014
The US housing market will recover from its current soft patch to post strong gains in home sales and housing starts over the next couple of years. By contrast house price growth will slow, but this will help avoid overvaluation and put the price rebound …
2nd June 2014
North Dakota owes its position as the strongest performing housing market in the US to the scale of shale oil and gas production in the State. Housing markets in a number of the other States sharing in the shale revolution are also outperforming. While …
28th May 2014
The first quarter Case-Shiller figures provide further evidence that the slowdown in the pace of house price gains that we have been expecting is now in train. It’s not implausible that the year-on-year rate of price growth will fall from above 10% to …
27th May 2014
In April, new home sales reversed most of the previous month’s decline to stand just4% below the high seen in October last year. Alongside yesterday’s modest rise inexisting home sales, the data indicate that there is still life in the US housing …
23rd May 2014
Existing home sales registered their first rise in four months in April. And to the extent that a lack of stock has been holding back activity rates in recent months, the further rise in the number of homes on the market was another sign that the housing …
22nd May 2014
Last year’s rise in mortgage interest rates may have dented home sales and housing starts, but it has not dented the downward trend in the number of US households suffering mortgage payment problems. Accordingly, the delinquency data do little to support …
15th May 2014
Fed Chair Janet Yellen expressed worries about the resilience of the housing recovery in her testimony to Congress last week. But the recent sales and mortgage lending figures have been more encouraging. … Positive signs on home sales and mortgage …
12th May 2014
The rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in April, alongside the recent pick-up in the Fed’s measure of the value of residential mortgage lending, are encouraging signs that mortgage lending is increasing. Admittedly, none of this changes the …
7th May 2014
House price gains have held steady at 11%-12% y/y for a year now. But the tight supply conditions which have driven these gains are now loosening, pointing to a moderation in price rises before too long. … CoreLogic House Prices …
6th May 2014
The increase in the share of households renting to a 19-year high in Q1, and the low supply of homes entering the rental market, look like boons for both rental value growth and multi-family homebuilding. … Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller …
29th April 2014
It is too early to take the weakening in activity as evidence that the housing recovery is over. The soft numbers could plausibly be the result of the temporary slowdown in job growth, the recent severe weather or even simple measurement error. If so, …
24th April 2014
The plunge in new home sales in March raises difficult questions about the sustainability of the housing recovery. But with other parts of the economy starting to shrug off the winter malaise, we are not sounding the alarm bells just yet. … New Home …
23rd April 2014
The latest small decline in existing home sales cannot easily be passed off as weather-related weakness, as those regions which suffered most from the severe weather saw sales bounce back in March. But at least the composition of existing home sales is …
22nd April 2014
The below-expectations increase in housing starts in March, which made up for only one-fifth of earlier weather-related falls, suggests that the shortage of labour and lots is constraining the improvement in homebuilding that the fundamentals would seem …
16th April 2014
The unprecedented negative spread between jumbo and conforming mortgage interest rates did not last for long. But the normalisation of the gap between jumbo and conforming rates marks an important stage in the return of private capital to the mortgage …
11th April 2014
The recent housing market activity data have been weak more or less across the board, with new and existing homes sales, as well as housing starts, all declining in February. These falls were largely the result of the recent severe weather, as well as the …
10th April 2014
The slight increase in mortgage applications for home purchase in March was a step in the right direction. But mortgage demand will have to rise much more strongly than this if mortgage-dependent buyers are going to play a larger role in the housing …
2nd April 2014
The CoreLogic measure reported that house prices continued to rise rapidly in February. However, the recent loosening in supply conditions suggests that runaway house price inflation will not continue for too much longer. … CoreLogic House Prices …
1st April 2014
The housing recovery is at a crossroad. We expect looser supply conditions to drive a moderation in house price gains over the next year. But our forecasts assume that declining investor demand will be replaced by mortgage-dependent buyers. If …
27th March 2014
The rapid, double-digit increases in house prices are unlikely to continue now that housing market supply conditions are loosening. … Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales …
25th March 2014
The slight decline in existing home sales in February was the sixth drop in seven months. However, sales of non-distressed existing homes are doing much better. … Existing Home Sales …
20th March 2014
Continued unseasonably severe weather, as well as a shortage of lots, kept housing starts subdued in February. But the size of the shortfall between starts and household formation means that construction won’t stay this low for long. … Housing Starts …
18th March 2014
The biggest risk facing the US housing market is that higher mortgage interest rates and tight credit conditions prevent a recovery in mortgage demand, meaning that mortgage-dependent buyers do not take the place of retreating investors. … What is the …
13th March 2014
New home sales shook off earlier weather effects to post a strong gain in January. Although existing home sales fell again, they should also recover before too long. Nevertheless, the bigger picture is that the recent weakness of housing market demand, …
11th March 2014
The drop in mortgage applications for home purchase in February, which could be related to the introduction of new mortgage lending rules during the previous month, mean that applications are at rock-bottom levels. … Mortgage Applications (Feb. …
5th March 2014
The first CoreLogic house price reading of 2014 suggests that prices started the year on a strong note. But this figure reflects supply and demand conditions from several months ago. The recent weakening in sales activity points to a slowdown in price …
4th March 2014
The strong rise in new home sales in January means that the recovery in housing market activity looks to be back on track. There is considerable scope for new home sales to rise further in 2014. … New Home Sales (Jan …
26th February 2014
House prices rose by a strong 11.4% during 2013 as a whole. However, prices are a lagging indicator of the health of the housing market. The more recent weakness of home sales will weigh on price growth before too long. … Case-Shiller Home Prices …
25th February 2014
Among the recent weather-hit housing market activity data, the further improvement in the mortgage delinquency and foreclosure picture is a timely reminder that the fundamentals of the housing market are still on the mend. … Mortgage Delinquencies (Q4 …
20th February 2014
The sharp fall in housing starts in January looks like further payback following November’s surge, combined with weather-related disruption. So while 2014 has got off to an unpromising beginning, we think that this year will be a strong one for housing …
19th February 2014
Mortgage demand is struggling to shake off the impact of last year’s jump in mortgage interest rates. But providing that the wider economic and labour market recovery remain on track, we see no reason why demand will not pick up as the year progresses. …
14th February 2014
The recovery in housing market activity has taken a knock. Existing home sales edged up in December, but the pending home sales index recorded a worrying slump. New home sales fell substantially in December, and while mortgage applications for home …
13th February 2014
The rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in January means that applications have repeated the pattern of falling in one month and rising in the next for six months now. The outlook for home purchase applications is highly uncertain, but on …
5th February 2014
The growing take up of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) does not look like a long-term threat to the stability of the housing market. Even after recent gains, the size of the ARM market is small. And the majority of new ARMs have initial fixed-rate …
4th February 2014
The final CoreLogic house price reading of 2013 showed that house prices rose by 11% last year. But the year-on-year rate of gains softened in the closing months of the year and is likely to weaken further in 2014. … CoreLogic House Prices …
The slight decline in the homeownership rate at the end of last year is a reminder that, even though the housing market is recovering, the share of the population who own their home probably has further to fall. … Homeownership and Vacancy Rates (Q4 …
31st January 2014
Monthly house price inflation has been in the 0.7%-1.2% range since mid-2013, and November was no exception. But the number of locations in the Case-Shiller 20-City index which are seeing a moderation in annual prices gains is increasing. … …
28th January 2014
The large decline in new home sales in December was probably driven by last month’s unseasonably severe winter weather. Sales activity in January is likely to be weak for similar reasons. But we continue to think that new home sales will stage an …
27th January 2014
The subdued level of homebuilding in Nevada, Arizona, California and Florida is primarily a legacy of the glut of cheap, distressed homes which flooded the market during the recession and crowded out homebuilders. Now that this inventory is being worked …
24th January 2014
It’s too early to conclude that the small increase in existing home sales in December marks the end of the weaker period for sales. But the rise looks consistent with a fading of the negative impact of last year’s hike in mortgage interest rates. … …
23rd January 2014
The drop in housing starts in December was more or less in line with expectations and is explained by the surge in housing starts in the previous month and the winter storms in December. We continue to think that the outlook for housing starts in 2014 is …
17th January 2014
