Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The further drop in 30-year mortgage interest rates, to an 18-month low of 3.8%, is starting to be reflected in mortgage applications. Refinancing activity is set for a sustained boom, while the lift to mortgage applications for home purchase should help …
4th February 2015
House price pressures came off the boil at the end of 2014, with the year-on-year rate of house price inflation at or around 5% during the final four months of the year. With the supply of homes for sale set to move closer into balance with demand, prices …
3rd February 2015
The homeownership rate fell again at the end of last year, but the decade-long decline in the share of the population who own their home may now be drawing to an end. In the meantime, however, supply conditions in the rental market are at their tightest …
29th January 2015
The recent decline in mortgage interest rates will trigger a refinancing boom that will span the first half of 2015. But it will be more modest than the one in 2012, and the benefits in terms of lower mortgage delinquencies and higher consumption will …
The strong rise in new home sales in December, which followed an encouraging gain in existing home sales in the same month, means that housing market supply conditions are tightening. That’s putting upward pressure on house prices, which posted the …
27th January 2015
November’s 6% drop in existing home sales always looked suspicious, given the strength of recent macro-economic data and the drop in borrowing costs. So confirmation that sales ended the year on a stronger note is a welcome, if largely anticipated, …
23rd January 2015
The rise in housing starts in December, as well as the upward revisions to the previous two months’ data, suggests that homebuilding was gathering momentum in the closing stages of 2014. The latest decline in mortgage interest rates and the encouraging …
21st January 2015
The decline in long-term Treasury yields almost certainly means that 30-year mortgage interest rates have further to fall and that any subsequent rises will be more gradual than we previously anticipated. The upshot is that housing will remain affordable …
20th January 2015
If production and employment are scaled back, housing markets in some oil-producing States, which have recently been among the most buoyant, could potentially suffer. But any drag that this may generate will be more than offset by the wider boost to …
12th January 2015
The further drop in 30-year mortgage interest rates, to within a whisker of 4%, as well as the rip-roaring performance of the labour market, are yet to be reflected in mortgage applications. But there are good reasons to think that lending will pick up …
7th January 2015
It is too soon to tell whether the slight moderation in the month-on-month rate of house price inflation in November is the first sign that price pressures are coming off the boil again. Regardless, the bigger picture is that the recent acceleration in …
6th January 2015
The new homes market continues to be very subdued, with a further drop in sales in November pushing the stock of new homes up for the ninth month in a row. But a number of factors, including strong employment growth and loosening credit conditions, …
23rd December 2014
Ignore the usual suspects who will claim that the unexpected 6.1% m/m decline in existing home sales in November is a sign that the housing or wider economic recovery just fell off the rails. They didn't. Indeed, with employment growth accelerating and …
22nd December 2014
House prices have regained fresh upward momentum in recent months. But as existing homeowners and homebuilders respond to higher prices by increasing supply, price gains will stabilise at 4% per annum over the next few years. … The acceleration in house …
The latest homebuilding figures were a mixed bag, with starts declining in November but only because of an upward revision to October’s estimate. On balance, these data support our view that the outlook for homebuilding is becoming increasingly positive. …
16th December 2014
Over the past three years the surge in average house prices has dwarfed the rise in rents. However, over the next few years, those patterns look set to go into reverse, with rents likely to rise at an annual average rate of 5% or more, while house price …
11th December 2014
Tighter supply conditions suggest that the moderation in house price inflation may be about to go into reverse. So, too, do solid rates of economic growth and job creation as well as tentative signs that mortgage credit conditions are easing. That said, …
9th December 2014
The low level of mortgage interest rates, signs of an easing in credit conditions and steady gains in employment have yet to be reflected in the data for mortgage applications. But we are optimistic that lending will pick up next year. … Mortgage …
3rd December 2014
October’s CoreLogic index does not fundamentally alter the picture of moderating house price pressures. And with housing more or less fairly valued, and the cost of borrowing set to rise, a period in which prices move broadly in line with incomes now …
2nd December 2014
Housing will be affordable and a touch undervalued even by the end of 2016, despite the prospect of interest rates rising over that period. The upshot is that the recovery in the housing market will continue. But with price growth likely to level off at …
1st December 2014
The modest increase in new home sales in October, which only occurred because September’s reading was itself revised downwards, is consistent with a subdued new homes market. Nevertheless, with credit conditions loosening, employment growth strong and …
26th November 2014
The strongest month-on-month increase in house prices in seven months in September is further evidence that, after the recent slowdown, the pace of house price growth is picking up again. But while a short-term acceleration is possible, the bigger picture …
25th November 2014
The sixth increase in seven months took existing home sales to within a whisker of their pre-taper high in October. Existing home sales are benefitting from the decent labour market recovery and the decline in mortgage interest rates, as well as continued …
20th November 2014
The decline in housing starts in October was entirely driven by a fall in the volatile multi-family component. With single-family starts, building permits and homebuilder confidence all rising, the outlook is becoming increasingly positive. … Housing …
19th November 2014
Strong job creation, falling unemployment and lower mortgage interest rates all helped the downward trend in the number of US households suffering mortgage payment problems continue into the third quarter. The delinquency data support our view that the …
14th November 2014
The various measures of house prices appear to be sending different messages, but on balance it looks like price gains have picked up again following outright falls earlier in the year. The Case- Shiller 20-City measure declined again in August, but the …
12th November 2014
We are not convinced that September’s drop in realtor confidence will herald another large dip in home sales. But it is another reminder that housing valuations are starting to become a drag, rather than a boost, to activity levels. … Valuation picture …
6th November 2014
The decline in mortgage interest rates to a 17-month low in October provided a temporary boost to refinancing activity. Mortgage applications for home purchase were still languishing in the doldrums, but signs that credit conditions are loosening should …
5th November 2014
The month-on-month increase in house prices in September suggests that the housing market is putting the very weak mid-year period behind it. But underlying rates of house price appreciation are still slowing, and with mortgage demand stagnating, there …
4th November 2014
Proposals to lower the minimum down-payment on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-backed mortgages at the same time as reducing banks’ exposure to put-back risk may help accelerate the modest loosening in mortgage credit conditions that is in train. But the …
31st October 2014
Today’s housing market data revealed a further slowdown in underlying house price growth, but the outlook for rental value growth is strengthening. … Homeownership & Vacancy Rates & Case-Shiller …
28th October 2014
New home sales stalled in September, following the previous month’s jump. But with the economic backdrop still favourable and mortgage rates low, we expect sales will resume their upwards trend soon. … New Home Sales …
24th October 2014
The increase in existing home sales in September took sales activity to a 12-month high. Falling mortgage interest rates and a steadily improving labour market bode well for existing home sales from here. … Existing Home Sales …
21st October 2014
Mortgage fees and charges, whether guarantee fees, mortgage insurance premiums or origination points, have increased in recent years. But fees are not weighing significantly on buyer demand and do not point to a lack of capacity among borrowers to absorb …
16th October 2014
The 18% m/m surge in new home sales in August was not enough to outweigh the 1.8% m/m decline in the much larger existing homes market. Strikingly, this decline was due to a weakening in demand from cash buyers and investors triggered by earlier rapid …
9th October 2014
The increase in the CoreLogic measure of house prices in August, although barely half the average monthly gain of 2012 and 2013, suggests that the housing market is putting the soft patch in prices from earlier this year behind it. Nevertheless, we doubt …
7th October 2014
The decline in mortgage interest rates to a 15-month low is doing little to revive mortgage applications. But this measure of mortgage market activity does not sit comfortably with some others, which suggest that activity is improving. … Mortgage …
1st October 2014
The marginal rise in house prices in July, which did no more than reverse the previous month’s decline, supports our view that house price inflation will slow to 4% y/y by the end of this year. … Case-Shiller House Prices …
30th September 2014
Loosening mortgage credit conditions, decent jobs gains and accelerating wage growth will help home sales rise over the next 12 months. But the improvement in selling conditions is also tempting sellers back to the market and triggering an expansion in …
29th September 2014
The increase in new home sales to a six-year high in August suggests that looser credit conditions and strengthening economic activity are finally giving households the confidence to purchase a new home. … New Home Sales …
24th September 2014
The decline in existing home sales in August hints at a vulnerability in the recovery in sales activity – it’s built on higher than normal levels of cash buyers and investors. These groups took a step back in August, and the result was the first drop in …
22nd September 2014
The decline in housing starts in August was worse than we or the consensus had anticipated and stands in stark contrast to surging homebuilder confidence. This weakness should prove temporary, however, with the strengthening economic recovery and shortage …
18th September 2014
The new Case-Shiller house price index improves on its predecessors by giving a monthly read on nation a l house prices. The historical revisions suggest that the housing bust was not as deep as thought and the subsequent recovery has not been as strong. …
11th September 2014
The new Case-Shiller national house price index, now released on a monthly basis, shows seasonally-adjusted prices falling in each of April, May and June. This is a dramatic reversal from the average 0.7% monthly gain of the previous two years. While …
10th September 2014
Mortgage applications for home purchase fell to their lowest level since 1995 in August. Yet other measures of mortgage market activity, such as the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey, suggest that mortgage demand is finally strengthening. … Mortgage …
3rd September 2014
Having all-but stalled during the previous three months, the CoreLogic measure of house prices posted a decent gain in July. But this is probably no more than a temporary reprieve, and we expect house price growth to continue slowing over the remainder of …
2nd September 2014
The house price slowdown that we have long-expected picked up a gear in recent months, suggesting that our forecast for house price inflation to slow to 4% next year is on track . … What next for house …
28th August 2014
The monthly Case-Shiller 20-City measure of house prices posted its second consecutive fall in June. Year-on-year house price inflation has slowed considerably this year, in line with our long-standing forecast. Nevertheless, a sustained downturn in house …
26th August 2014
The decline in new home sales in July, albeit from an upwardly revised level in June, is further evidence that the new homes sector is failing to share in the wider economic recovery. Nevertheless, with mortgage credit conditions now loosening, we expect …
25th August 2014
The unexpected gain in existing home sales in July extends the run of rising sales to four months. Recent falls in mortgage interest rates and the steadily improving labour market mean that the immediate outlook for sales is positive. … Existing Home …
21st August 2014
