Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
It is not out of the question that the coming rise in interest rates will derail the housing market recovery. Equally, however, it is plausible that a surge of pent-up demand, combined with low housing inventory, will trigger another boom. We think both …
30th November 2015
US high-yield corporate bonds have performed poorly in November amid concerns over the renewedfall in commodity prices and the prospect of tighter US monetary policy. Looking ahead, we do notthink that this performance will continue, even if the Fed …
25th November 2015
Case-Shiller reported that annual house price growth accelerated to 4.9% in September, the highest rate in more than a year. Low numbers of homes for sale mean that even a small increase in housing demand is enabling those sellers that are in the market …
24th November 2015
As expected, existing home sales contracted in October. While housing demand is being supported by a strengthening labour market and gradual easing in credit conditions, a lack of housing inventory is constraining activity. … Existing Home Sales …
23rd November 2015
Our call over two years ago that the homeownership rate would see further declines has proved broadly correct. But with foreclosures now back to historical norms, and credit conditions gradually easing, the conditions are in place for a slow but steady …
19th November 2015
October’s double-digit drop in housing starts was disappointing. But there are good reasons to believe that starts will bounce back in November. … Housing Starts …
18th November 2015
Low interest rates, falling unemployment and a reduction in the share of mortgages with negative equity all contributed to another drop in the delinquency rate in the third quarter. … Mortgage Delinquencies …
17th November 2015
Housing demand is being supported by a gradual easing in credit conditions, which helped the homeownership rate to pick-up from a 48-year low in the third quarter. But with inventory levels still very low, housing demand is feeding through into higher …
11th November 2015
Following the surge in mortgage applications for home purchase in September, due to the introduction of TRID disclosure rules, the fact that applications only dipped marginally in October is a positive sign. While an increase in mortgage rates may weigh …
4th November 2015
Even accounting for the fact that over the past few months the first estimate of house price inflation from CoreLogic has consistently been revised down, today’s reading of a seasonally adjusted 1.3% m/m rise in September shows that low inventory levels …
3rd November 2015
A drop in the share of mortgages in foreclosure, alongside easing credit conditions which have boosted the number of first-time buyers, has helped the homeownership rate to rise from a 48-year low. … Homeownership & vacancy rates (Q3 …
27th October 2015
The Case- Shiller measure of house prices showed that home values are continuing to grind higher, with the annual rate now at its highest level in almost a year. Tight supply conditions are behind the increase, and point to further gains this year. … …
New home sales recorded a surprise drop of 11.5% in September. Yet new home sales data are notoriously volatile. And, given the strong performance of existing home sales in September, as well as the positive outlook for new home sales implied by other …
26th October 2015
Existing home sales rebounded by 4.7% in September. While there are a number of factors pointing to a moderation in sales over the coming months, over the medium-term the outlook is broadly positive. … Existing Home Sales …
22nd October 2015
As expected, housing starts resumed their upward trend in September, confirming that the disruption over the summer caused by the expiry of a tax-break in New York has now worked through. While the number of building permits issued dropped back to a …
20th October 2015
Lenders have accelerated the easing of mortgage lending standards in recent months, thanks to a steady reduction in mortgage delinquencies and new GSE policies. That has started to boost the number of first-time buyers – a necessary development if the …
16th October 2015
On the basis of past form, the fact the rental vacancy rate has hit a 30-year low would suggest rental growth is set to surge. But the drop in the vacancy rate is being exaggerated by a rise in the number of empty homes being kept off the market. Other …
13th October 2015
The drop in mortgage rates towards the end of September has given mortgage applications a boost, as did the introduction of new disclosure requirements for mortgages as buyers acted early to avoid anticipated delays. A steady recovery in housing starts is …
9th October 2015
The uncertainty generated by September’s Federal Reserve meeting, combined with a drop in mortgage rates to below 4% for the first time since May, helped applications for house purchase reverse most of the dip seen in July and August. … Mortgage …
7th October 2015
House prices rose by a substantial 1.5% m/m seasonally adjusted in August according to CoreLogic. Even accounting for the fact that early estimates of house price growth on this measure tend to get revised down, this data provides further evidence that …
6th October 2015
House prices are picking up again on the back of a very tight housing market.But over the next couple of years, as greater numbers of new homes come onto the market andowners of existing properties see more opportunities to move, conditions should ease, …
2nd October 2015
By posting a 0.5% gain during July, the national Case-Shiller index of house prices is beginning to move into line with other measures which have shown far stronger house price gains in recent months. With inventory levels low and mortgage applications …
29th September 2015
New home sales are finally building momentum, and are up by over 18% since June. While low levels of inventory suggest the pace of growth will slow, early evidence that mortgage applications for house purchase are on the up should ensure sales see further …
24th September 2015
After three months of gains, subdued mortgage lending and low inventory levels meant existing home sales fell back in August. Those factors will weigh on sales in the short term, but as lending recovers sales should pick up by the end of the year. … …
21st September 2015
The new Home Purchase Sentiment Index from Fannie Mae has a good track record in forecasting measures of housing market activity. While future performance may not be as impressive, the drop in sentiment over the past couple of months points to a slowdown …
18th September 2015
As expected, the disruption caused by the expiry of a tax-break in New York led to a drop in housing starts in August. But with homebuilder confidence elevated and building permits already recovering, the upwards trend in starts should resume soon. … …
17th September 2015
The first quarter’s recovery in mortgage applications for home purchase appears to have been derailed by a lack of earnings growth and the resulting deterioration in affordability. While earnings shouldpick-up, rates are also poised to rise, suggesting …
10th September 2015
Housing market activity on most measures has seen further gains. Existing home sales rose unexpectedly in July, and are now up 16% since the start of the year. And while starts were essentially flat in July, they are up 10% over the same period, and …
9th September 2015
The drop in interest rates triggered by the market turmoil of the past couple of weeks has given a boost to refinancing activity. Applications for home purchase have been more sluggish, but with credit conditions loosening and employment rising, the small …
2nd September 2015
CoreLogic report that house prices saw a very large rise of 1.5% seasonally-adjusted in July, pushing the annual rate to a 12-month high. Tight market conditions are driving house prices higher, a trend that is set to continue this year. … CoreLogic …
1st September 2015
The housing market is well placed to cope with a gradual rise in interest rates. Indeed, there is some evidence that a gentle rise in rates can spur some potential buyers to get into the market before the best deals are gone, providing a modest short-term …
28th August 2015
New home sales reversed part of June’s sharp fall in July, and alongside a surge in existing sales that has led to the tightest market conditions in a decade. Surprisingly, those tight conditions have yet to feed through to the Case-Shiller measure of …
25th August 2015
Against expectations, existing home sales rose once again in July, to their highest level since the start of 2007. But with the months’ supply of existing homes dropping to its lowest level in a decade, a lack of choice will start to dissuade buyers and …
20th August 2015
The recovery in housing starts continues, as builders respond to improving demandfor new-build homes. The expiry of a tax-break in New York City has distorted thebuilding permit data but other leading indicators, such as homebuilder confidence,point to …
18th August 2015
The share of mortgage borrowers having trouble with repayments dropped again in the second quarter, thanks to low mortgage rates, rising house prices and a solid labour market. That progress should continue, providing a boost to mortgage lending. … …
13th August 2015
Total home sales increased to nearly 6m annualised in June. This was the fastest pace of sales since before the financial crisis and is a clear sign that the market is gradually normalising. Moreover, even if the Fed increases rates twice this year, …
10th August 2015
The upward trend in mortgage interest rates seems to be holding back mortgage applications. However, provided the labour market continues to strengthen as we expect, looser credit conditions and favourable affordability suggest that Fed tightening need …
5th August 2015
Although the CoreLogic measure of annual house price growth increased again in June, the underlying pace of gains has slowed since the start of the year. As a result, the index is finally falling back into line with the other measures of price growth. … …
4th August 2015
Most evidence suggests that credit conditions are loosening, albeit very gradually. As it becomes clearer that the housing and wider economic recoveries are strong enough to cope with a gradual rise in interest rates, lender caution should dissipate, …
29th July 2015
Today’s housing market data suggest that the recent slowdown in house price growth may now be going into reverse. They also support our view that rental value growth could soon reach a 30-year high. … Homeownership & Vacancy Rates / Case-Shiller …
28th July 2015
New home sales unexpectedly declined in June, and have struggled to make much progress since the start of the year. However, the recent growth in existing sales shows that housing demand is strengthening. With the labour market improving steadily and …
24th July 2015
The rise in existing home sales to their highest level since before the financial crisis provides further evidence that the housing recovery has shifted into a higher gear. The resilience of the wider economy and high levels of consumer confidence should …
22nd July 2015
The strong rise in housing starts in June suggests that the home building recovery is building momentum after recent volatility. With demand for new homes strengthening and home builder confidence at its highest level in almost a decade, we expect further …
17th July 2015
Recent survey data suggest that the recovery in housing starts would have been stronger if not for shortages of labour within some specialised trades. But although a scarcity of labour may be preventing builders from constructing as many homes as they …
14th July 2015
Housing activity has strengthened in recent months. Indeed, gains in both new and existing home sales in May pushed total sales up to their highest level in eight years. Strong growth in jobs and incomes, a long-overdue upturn in mortgage lending and high …
9th July 2015
A slowdown in the monthly pace of price growth suggests that the CoreLogic index is finally falling back into line with other measures. After the rapid acceleration at the start of the year, we expect the index to continue growing at a more modest pace. … …
7th July 2015
The recent strength of housing activity suggests the market is well placed to cope with a gradual rise in interest rates. Indeed, with credit conditions gradually loosening and affordability very favourable, we expect sales and prices to enjoy further …
2nd July 2015
Home purchase mortgage applications edged higher again in June despite another big rise in interest rates. The pace of growth has slowed, but we are hopeful that mortgage demand can make more meaningful progress in the months ahead, helping to close the …
1st July 2015
The continued slowdown in the Case-Shiller measure of house price growth seems odd when other indicators of housing activity have strengthened markedly and the wider economy is growing at a healthy pace. Accordingly, we are not changing our view that …
30th June 2015
Strong growth in both new and existing sales in May pushed total home sales up to an eight-year high. This confirms that the renewed strength in the labour market and consumer spending are feeding through into a sizable boost to housing activity … New …
23rd June 2015
