Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
CoreLogic reported a strong rise in house prices in May, in line with the recent run of solid gains. With mortgage rates now likely to stay close to record lows for longer, house prices will continue to come under upwards pressure. … CoreLogic House …
5th July 2016
A surge in new home sales in April, which was only partly reversed in May, suggests that housing market activity is finally picking up. Activity is being supported by an improving labour market, very low mortgage rates and the gradual release of …
29th June 2016
28th June 2016
The sharp drop in Treasury yields following the decision by the UK electorate to leave the European Union is unlikely to trigger an equivalent drop in mortgage rates. At the same time, with the impact on the US economy also limited, we doubt there will be …
24th June 2016
After a 12.3% m/m jump in April, it is not surprising that new home sales fell back in May. But even after a 6.0% m/m drop sales in May were 5.6% higher than in March. That suggests that new home sales are finally making some headway. … New Home Sales …
23rd June 2016
Existing home sales rose by a marginal 1.8% m/m in May, helped by low mortgage rates. But with sales back to their long-run average and the inventory of homes for sale very low, we doubt sales will rise much further over the next couple of years. … …
22nd June 2016
Today’s data on housing starts were somewhat disappointing, showing no change in starts between April and May. But with market conditions still tight and builder confidence rising, starts should strengthen in the second half of the year. … Housing …
17th June 2016
Given low inventory levels, experience suggests that house prices should be rising at double their current rate of around 5% y/y. But with low numbers of existing homes for sale, the behaviour of builders may be having a larger influence on overall house …
16th June 2016
After seasonal adjustment, house prices dipped by a marginal 0.1% in April according to the CoreLogic index. But with supply conditions tightening further, we doubt this weak patch in house price growth will persist. … CoreLogic House Prices …
7th June 2016
After treading water since the start of 2015, new home sales finally made some headway in April with the largest month-on-month rise since 1992. While that rate of growth is unsustainable, it provides some evidence that the combination of mortgage rates …
6th June 2016
The improving economy, combined with mortgage interest rates that will stay low by past standards, should usher in a renewed period of growth in the stock of mortgage debt over the next few years. But the wave of new mortgage regulations put in place …
2nd June 2016
The slight fall in mortgage applications for home purchase in May looks in part to be down to some buyers bringing forward their applications to take advantage of mortgage interest rates that were close to record lows. But with the underlying fundamentals …
1st June 2016
At the national level, Case-Shiller reported that house prices rose by a modest 0.1% m/m in March. However, this weak patch in price pressures is unlikely to continue. Recent strong sales have led to a tightening in market conditions, which will force …
31st May 2016
Existing home sales as a share of population have been close to their long-run average since 2013. So while pent-up housing demand suggests they will rise over the next few years, the increase will be small. In contrast, new home sales are still a long …
26th May 2016
The 16.6% m/m gain in new homes sales in April was the biggest monthly rise since the start of 1992. A lack of existing homes for sale is driving the growing number of home buyers to look at the new home sector more closely. Even so, this pace of growth …
24th May 2016
Existing home sales rose by 1.7% m/m in April – a little more than we were expecting. But the overall picture from the last year has been of only limited upward movement. And while demand for homes has been rising, the shortage of inventory suggests that …
20th May 2016
Homebuilder share prices have flat lined since early 2015, which could be a sign that the recent soft patch in housing starts is set to continue. But the past relationship between the two is far from perfect, and we suspect investors are being too …
18th May 2016
April’s rise does not alter the fact that housing starts have failed to deliver any sustained growth over the past year. However, with housing demand rising gradually and builders growing more confident about the sales outlook, we doubt this weak patch …
17th May 2016
The share of US households who think that now is a good time to buy a home is close to previous highs, but the share of households who plan to buy in the near future is more subdued. The contrast between these two surveys supports the idea that there is a …
12th May 2016
Demand for homes is rising thanks to mortgage rates that are close to record lows and an improving labour market. Mortgage applications for home purchase in April were at their highest level since early 2010. But the shortage of homes for sale persists. …
11th May 2016
Applications for refinance and home purchase both increased in April, driven in part by a drop in mortgage interest rates. While an expected increase in rates will dampen refinance activity in the coming months, a strong labour market and gradual easing …
4th May 2016
The combination of a steady rise in housing demand and very low levels of housing inventory is putting upwards pressure on house prices. While the very large 1.9% m/m gain is likely to be revised down, it is clear that price growth is accelerating. … …
3rd May 2016
The annual rate of house price growth held firm in February. But with conditions in place for housing demand to increase further this year, and inventory levels set to stay low, we expect the rate of house price inflation to accelerate a little over the …
26th April 2016
New home sales fell in March – a weaker performance than we had expected. But with the economic backdrop still supporting housing demand, and inventory levels for new homes still growing, we still think new home sales will make solid gains by the end of …
25th April 2016
Existing home sales reversed some of last month’s drop with a gain of 5.1% m/m. But sales have made essentially no headway over the past year – the annual growth rate dropped to just 1.5%. While active housing demand is gradually rising, there are simply …
20th April 2016
Housing starts disappointed in March, with a substantial 8.8% drop over the month. And building permits are down to their lowest level in a year. But with mortgage applications rising at a healthy pace and homebuilder confidence at an elevated level, it …
19th April 2016
Mortgage applications for home purchase are barely half their pre-crisis levels. But a steady rise in the share of applications that are approved means active housing demand from mortgage-dependent buyers has been growing at a far faster pace than …
14th April 2016
Housing now looks close to fair value, and the supply of distressed properties for sale has fallen. However, while they may struggle to find bargains, we doubt that private investor demand will dry up. With returns on other types of assets looking low …
12th April 2016
The demand for homes is on the rise. With mortgage affordability very favourable, jobs being created at a decent pace and banks loosening credit criteria, it is no surprise that mortgage applications for home purchase are up by almost 30% on a year …
6th April 2016
Despite a small rise in mortgage interest rates the strong labour market, high consumer confidence and historically favourable mortgage affordability all combined to ensure that mortgage applications for home purchase rose in March. … Mortgage …
House prices saw another strong increase in February according to CoreLogic. And with demand set to rise further, but inventory still very constrained, further gains this year can be expected. … CoreLogic House Prices …
5th April 2016
Even with our above-consensus views on house price growth and interest rate hikes, a rise in earnings growth will help keep mortgage payments as a share of income below their long-run average over the next three years. While tight mortgage lending …
31st March 2016
House prices in January increased by a solid 0.5% m/m at the national level. Rising demand and low housing inventory are combining to put upwards pressure on prices - a set of conditions we expect will continue for the rest of the year. Further gains in …
29th March 2016
In recent years, homebuilders have focussed on constructing more expensive properties. However, that primarily reflects builders responding to underlying demand conditions. So, for the most part, we doubt their actions have frustrated first-time buyers …
24th March 2016
The large 7.1% m/m drop in existing home sales in February is down to chronically low numbers of homes for sale. With limited prospect of the supply situation improving any time soon, existing home sales will struggle to make any ground this year. … …
21st March 2016
There has been no let-up in the very tight market conditions which have characterised the housing market in recent months. With housing demand rising steadily on the back of low mortgage interest rates, easing credit conditions and an improving labour …
18th March 2016
As expected, housing starts rose in February, following two consecutive months of declines. Homebuilders are benefitting from the combination of rising housing demand and a shortage of existing homes on the market. That will help housing starts to make …
16th March 2016
The turmoil in financial markets during February led to a flight to safe assets which pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to 1.78%, its lowest level since early 2013, and also led to a drop in mortgage interest rates. Improved housing affordability …
7th March 2016
The slight 5.2% m/m fall in mortgage applications for home purchase in February is not a sign that housing demand is tailing off. With mortgage affordability set to remain favourable and more Americans in jobs, applications are set to rise this year. … …
2nd March 2016
The return to more normal levels of foreclosure activity has removed one factor that was helping to support the inventory of existing homes for sale. But foreclosures are clearly not a sustainable way to boost inventory levels. A rise in the number of …
25th February 2016
The surprise rise in existing home sales in January provides further evidence that housing demand is being supported by very low mortgage interest rates and a strong jobs market. But with inventory levels very low, that has put upwards pressure on house …
23rd February 2016
Low oil prices will act as a headwind to the housing markets of oil producing states and dent the demand for high-end homes from foreign buyers. But set against that, the money households save on gas and other energy costs will allow them to spend more on …
19th February 2016
Against expectations for a small rise, housing starts contracted for the second consecutive month in January. However, even though they were depressed to some extent by the snowy weather in the Northeast, building permit data is consistent with a recovery …
17th February 2016
Survey evidence shows that banks have relaxed mortgage lending standards in every quarter for the past two years, and the average down payment is currently no larger than that seen just prior to the financial crisis. But credit score data show that …
10th February 2016
After collapsing in November, existing home sales bounced back in December. That volatility was caused by the introduction of TRID disclosure requirements, which pushed some sales from November into December. But encouragingly new home sales, which were …
8th February 2016
A fall in mortgage interest rates helped to boost mortgage applications in January. And although we think rates will increase this year, a strong labour market and easing in lending standards will ensure applications for home purchase see further gains. …
3rd February 2016
While we wouldn’t place too much faith in December’s reading of a strong 1.5% m/m gain in house prices, the latest CoreLogic report continues the recent theme of gradually rising house prices as increasing demand runs up against constrained supply. … …
2nd February 2016
The sharp slowdown in household formation in the final quarter of 2015 reflected base effects, and is not a cause for concern. In any event, even though a lack of available homes will act as a constraint on the creation of households, underlying demand …
1st February 2016
New home sales followed in the path of existing sales by surging 10.8% in the final month of the year. But while the jump in existing sales was due to volatility caused by TRID, the rise in new home sales provides further evidence that an improving labour …
27th January 2016
Existing home sales rebounded in style in December – recording their largest month-on-month gain since records began in 1968. The jump was due to the introduction of TRID disclosure rules in early October, which increased mortgage closing times and pushed …
22nd January 2016
