Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Existing home sales as a share of population have been close to their long-run average since 2013. So while pent-up housing demand suggests they will rise over the next few years, the increase will be small. In contrast, new home sales are still a long …
26th May 2016
The 16.6% m/m gain in new homes sales in April was the biggest monthly rise since the start of 1992. A lack of existing homes for sale is driving the growing number of home buyers to look at the new home sector more closely. Even so, this pace of growth …
24th May 2016
Existing home sales rose by 1.7% m/m in April – a little more than we were expecting. But the overall picture from the last year has been of only limited upward movement. And while demand for homes has been rising, the shortage of inventory suggests that …
20th May 2016
Homebuilder share prices have flat lined since early 2015, which could be a sign that the recent soft patch in housing starts is set to continue. But the past relationship between the two is far from perfect, and we suspect investors are being too …
18th May 2016
April’s rise does not alter the fact that housing starts have failed to deliver any sustained growth over the past year. However, with housing demand rising gradually and builders growing more confident about the sales outlook, we doubt this weak patch …
17th May 2016
The share of US households who think that now is a good time to buy a home is close to previous highs, but the share of households who plan to buy in the near future is more subdued. The contrast between these two surveys supports the idea that there is a …
12th May 2016
Demand for homes is rising thanks to mortgage rates that are close to record lows and an improving labour market. Mortgage applications for home purchase in April were at their highest level since early 2010. But the shortage of homes for sale persists. …
11th May 2016
Applications for refinance and home purchase both increased in April, driven in part by a drop in mortgage interest rates. While an expected increase in rates will dampen refinance activity in the coming months, a strong labour market and gradual easing …
4th May 2016
The combination of a steady rise in housing demand and very low levels of housing inventory is putting upwards pressure on house prices. While the very large 1.9% m/m gain is likely to be revised down, it is clear that price growth is accelerating. … …
3rd May 2016
The annual rate of house price growth held firm in February. But with conditions in place for housing demand to increase further this year, and inventory levels set to stay low, we expect the rate of house price inflation to accelerate a little over the …
26th April 2016
New home sales fell in March – a weaker performance than we had expected. But with the economic backdrop still supporting housing demand, and inventory levels for new homes still growing, we still think new home sales will make solid gains by the end of …
25th April 2016
Existing home sales reversed some of last month’s drop with a gain of 5.1% m/m. But sales have made essentially no headway over the past year – the annual growth rate dropped to just 1.5%. While active housing demand is gradually rising, there are simply …
20th April 2016
Housing starts disappointed in March, with a substantial 8.8% drop over the month. And building permits are down to their lowest level in a year. But with mortgage applications rising at a healthy pace and homebuilder confidence at an elevated level, it …
19th April 2016
Mortgage applications for home purchase are barely half their pre-crisis levels. But a steady rise in the share of applications that are approved means active housing demand from mortgage-dependent buyers has been growing at a far faster pace than …
14th April 2016
Housing now looks close to fair value, and the supply of distressed properties for sale has fallen. However, while they may struggle to find bargains, we doubt that private investor demand will dry up. With returns on other types of assets looking low …
12th April 2016
The demand for homes is on the rise. With mortgage affordability very favourable, jobs being created at a decent pace and banks loosening credit criteria, it is no surprise that mortgage applications for home purchase are up by almost 30% on a year …
6th April 2016
Despite a small rise in mortgage interest rates the strong labour market, high consumer confidence and historically favourable mortgage affordability all combined to ensure that mortgage applications for home purchase rose in March. … Mortgage …
House prices saw another strong increase in February according to CoreLogic. And with demand set to rise further, but inventory still very constrained, further gains this year can be expected. … CoreLogic House Prices …
5th April 2016
Even with our above-consensus views on house price growth and interest rate hikes, a rise in earnings growth will help keep mortgage payments as a share of income below their long-run average over the next three years. While tight mortgage lending …
31st March 2016
House prices in January increased by a solid 0.5% m/m at the national level. Rising demand and low housing inventory are combining to put upwards pressure on prices - a set of conditions we expect will continue for the rest of the year. Further gains in …
29th March 2016
In recent years, homebuilders have focussed on constructing more expensive properties. However, that primarily reflects builders responding to underlying demand conditions. So, for the most part, we doubt their actions have frustrated first-time buyers …
24th March 2016
The large 7.1% m/m drop in existing home sales in February is down to chronically low numbers of homes for sale. With limited prospect of the supply situation improving any time soon, existing home sales will struggle to make any ground this year. … …
21st March 2016
There has been no let-up in the very tight market conditions which have characterised the housing market in recent months. With housing demand rising steadily on the back of low mortgage interest rates, easing credit conditions and an improving labour …
18th March 2016
As expected, housing starts rose in February, following two consecutive months of declines. Homebuilders are benefitting from the combination of rising housing demand and a shortage of existing homes on the market. That will help housing starts to make …
16th March 2016
The turmoil in financial markets during February led to a flight to safe assets which pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to 1.78%, its lowest level since early 2013, and also led to a drop in mortgage interest rates. Improved housing affordability …
7th March 2016
The slight 5.2% m/m fall in mortgage applications for home purchase in February is not a sign that housing demand is tailing off. With mortgage affordability set to remain favourable and more Americans in jobs, applications are set to rise this year. … …
2nd March 2016
The return to more normal levels of foreclosure activity has removed one factor that was helping to support the inventory of existing homes for sale. But foreclosures are clearly not a sustainable way to boost inventory levels. A rise in the number of …
25th February 2016
The surprise rise in existing home sales in January provides further evidence that housing demand is being supported by very low mortgage interest rates and a strong jobs market. But with inventory levels very low, that has put upwards pressure on house …
23rd February 2016
Low oil prices will act as a headwind to the housing markets of oil producing states and dent the demand for high-end homes from foreign buyers. But set against that, the money households save on gas and other energy costs will allow them to spend more on …
19th February 2016
Against expectations for a small rise, housing starts contracted for the second consecutive month in January. However, even though they were depressed to some extent by the snowy weather in the Northeast, building permit data is consistent with a recovery …
17th February 2016
Survey evidence shows that banks have relaxed mortgage lending standards in every quarter for the past two years, and the average down payment is currently no larger than that seen just prior to the financial crisis. But credit score data show that …
10th February 2016
After collapsing in November, existing home sales bounced back in December. That volatility was caused by the introduction of TRID disclosure requirements, which pushed some sales from November into December. But encouragingly new home sales, which were …
8th February 2016
A fall in mortgage interest rates helped to boost mortgage applications in January. And although we think rates will increase this year, a strong labour market and easing in lending standards will ensure applications for home purchase see further gains. …
3rd February 2016
While we wouldn’t place too much faith in December’s reading of a strong 1.5% m/m gain in house prices, the latest CoreLogic report continues the recent theme of gradually rising house prices as increasing demand runs up against constrained supply. … …
2nd February 2016
The sharp slowdown in household formation in the final quarter of 2015 reflected base effects, and is not a cause for concern. In any event, even though a lack of available homes will act as a constraint on the creation of households, underlying demand …
1st February 2016
New home sales followed in the path of existing sales by surging 10.8% in the final month of the year. But while the jump in existing sales was due to volatility caused by TRID, the rise in new home sales provides further evidence that an improving labour …
27th January 2016
Existing home sales rebounded in style in December – recording their largest month-on-month gain since records began in 1968. The jump was due to the introduction of TRID disclosure rules in early October, which increased mortgage closing times and pushed …
22nd January 2016
Experience from the UK shows that buyers of high-end properties will pay significant sums to protect their privacy. That suggests that new rules for Manhattan and Miami-Dade, which will force buyers using shell companies to reveal their identities, will …
21st January 2016
Even with the unseasonably warm weather giving housing starts a boost in the Northeast, across the country as a whole starts dropped by a marginal 2.5% in December. While that is something of a disappointment, strong job creation and elevated homebuilder …
20th January 2016
The introduction of the TRID disclosure rules in October increased the time a mortgage takes to close by a small amount, which will have delayed some home sales. But the evidence does not support claims that the new rules have caused chaos and their …
12th January 2016
The housing market should be able to withstand the first rise in interest rates for nine years. Mortgage applications for home purchase in December were at their highest level in almost six years. And home purchase sentiment has risen on the back of an …
11th January 2016
The collapse in refinancing activity in the final week of 2015 looks to reflect seasonal issues, rather than a reaction to the Fed hiking interest rates. Indeed, applications for home purchase held up and are now at their highest level in almost six …
6th January 2016
House price growth is accelerating as a rise in demand has combined with low inventory levels to boost sellers’ bargaining power. Increases in interest rates will act to cool the market to some extent, but prices are still set for a steady rise this year. …
5th January 2016
Solid new home sales data for November lend weight to the idea that yesterday’s slump in existing home sales was a blip, not a cause for concern. … New Home Sales …
23rd December 2015
November’s slump in existing home sales was widespread, suggesting that new regulation, or perhaps concern about December’s rate rise, may have played a role. Either way, with housing fundamentals such as valuations, affordability and job creation still …
22nd December 2015
A lack of housing inventory continues to drive developments in the market. With homes hard to come by, sales have been constrained and house prices have come under upwards pressure as demand has slowly recovered. Those tight conditions are only set to …
17th December 2015
As expected, housing starts reversed nearly all of last month’s drop, rising by a substantial 10.5% m/m in November. Moreover, building permits recorded their strongest month-on-month gain for five years, which suggests that homebuilding will end 2015 on …
16th December 2015
The lack of housing inventory continues to drive developments in the market. The months’ supply of existing homes for sale has now been below five since May. That is both holding back home sales, and pushing up house prices. But the lack of inventory is …
8th December 2015
A rise in mortgage rates led to a sharp drop in mortgage refinancing activity in November. But applications for home purchase fared better, with the weekly breakdown showing an encouraging rise in activity towards the end of the month. … Mortgage …
2nd December 2015
On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the 2% m/m rise in house prices in October was the highest since 2005. And although that figure is likely to be revised down, it is clear that very tight market conditions are driving house prices higher. … CoreLogic …
1st December 2015
