Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
A comparison of median new home prices to median household income implies that housing valuations are at levels which could foreshadow a price correction. But we put more faith in valuation measures based on existing home prices and earnings. These show …
15th September 2017
Despite damaging around half a million homes, Hurricane Katrina had no discernible impact on home sales or housing starts in the South compared to other regions. Accordingly, we are not expecting a large impact on housing market activity from Hurricanes …
12th September 2017
Concerns that Hurricane Harvey will lead to a surge in mortgage delinquencies look over done. Houston has one of the highest levels of home equity in the country, which will persuade many mortgage borrowers that it is worthwhile keeping up payments. …
8th September 2017
Mortgage rates declined in each week of August to reach 4.06%, a 10-month low. But while that spurred an 8.8% m/m rise in refinance applications, mortgage applications for home purchase dropped for the second consecutive month. A lack of affordable …
6th September 2017
Falling Treasury yields have pushed down the 30-year mortgage interest rate over the past few weeks. It now sits at its lowest level since early-November. But that drop in interest rates has not led to a rise housing market activity. Indeed, both new and …
5th September 2017
House prices continued to march higher in July according to CoreLogic, with a monthly gain of 0.8% m/m after seasonal adjustment. Tight market conditions are responsible for the steady rise in prices, although relatively strict mortgage lending standards …
It is tempting to link the recent softness in new home sales to builders’ apparent reluctance to up the construction of single-family homes. But with new homes selling very quickly, and a rising share sold even before construction has begun, we doubt the …
31st August 2017
The 5.8% annual gain in house prices reported by Case-Shiller in June was the highest in three-years, as a shortage of inventory boosted prices even as active housing demand has edged back. Tight market conditions will drive house prices higher over the …
29th August 2017
The average monthly mortgage payment has reached a nine-year high at the same time as home sales have stalled, but we doubt the first is causing the second. The fact home sales are being agreed in close to record quick times argues against the idea of a …
24th August 2017
As expected, the lack of homes for sale weighed on existing home sales in July, pushing them down to their lowest level in almost a year. But those homes which are for sale are selling very quickly, indicating robust underlying housing demand. … Existing …
Against expectations of a small rise, new home sales fell by 9.4%m/m in July and saw their first annual decline in 1½ years. But new homes are selling very quickly, which suggests underlying housing demand is still robust. Given the volatile nature of the …
23rd August 2017
Developers have responded quickly to signs that rental vacancy rates in multifamily buildings are edging up, with starts over the past three months reaching their lowest level in four years. That contrasts to what happened during the early 2000s, when …
18th August 2017
Housing starts surprised on the downside in July, with a 4.8% m/m fall pushing starts to a three-month low. The drop was entirely down to the multifamily sector, with single-family starts holding their ground. The failure of single-family starts and …
16th August 2017
The latest data on vacancy rates confirms that housing market conditions are tight. Very low inventory levels pushed the homeowner vacancy rate to a 17-year low in the second quarter. That will support house price growth, which is holding steady at around …
8th August 2017
Mortgage applications fell in July, primarily due to a fall in refinancing. But home purchase applications dropped too, held back by low inventory. So while robust job creation and easing lending standards are supporting demand, we think low inventory …
2nd August 2017
According to Corelogic, annual house price growth rose to 6.7% in June. But while market conditions remain tight, new homes inventory is steadily rising and cautious home appraisals are holding back prices. Consequently, we expect house price growth to …
1st August 2017
In the absence of state-level data on the months’ supply of unsold homes, a comparison of inventory levels in each state to their long-run average has, in the past, proved a reasonable leading indicator for house prices. The latest data show that, with …
31st July 2017
The homeownership rate hit a three year high in the second quarter, as a strong labour market contributed to a gradual rise in the number of first-time buyers. But the fact that the homeowner vacancy rate hit a 17-year low is a reminder that the lack of …
27th July 2017
The marginal 0.8% m/m rise in new home sales in June provides further evidence that sales volumes are struggling to gain momentum despite the fact that new homes are selling at the fastest pace since records began. Higher volumes will require a shift to …
26th July 2017
Case-Shiller reported a marginal easing in monthly house price pressures in May. But that softening reflects problems with the seasonal-adjustment process. Annual growth was unchanged at a robust 5.6% and, with the inventory of homes continuing to …
25th July 2017
Given the very low level of inventory, the 1.8% m/m drop in existing home sales in June was expected. Sales have now made no progress over the past year, even as robust housing demand means those homes that are on the market are selling at a record pace. …
24th July 2017
Even with a strong dollar pushing up the price of US homes for most foreign buyers, in the year to March non-resident buyers increased their spending on residential property by 72%. We suspect fears that buying a US home were set to become harder is …
20th July 2017
Housing starts surprised on the upside in June, with the 8.3% m/m increase breaking a three-month run of declines. While rising material prices dented homebuilder confidence in July, very tight market conditions will help single-family starts to rise …
19th July 2017
Experience suggests that with housing market conditions so tight, house prices should be rising considerably faster than their current rate of around 6% y/y. One reason why they are not may be that cautious home appraisals are limiting the degree to which …
14th July 2017
Lacklustre housing starts, which dropped for the third month in a row in May, will do nothing to ease the very low levels of inventory. In turn, low inventory is holding back search and sales activity. Even with jobs being created at a decent pace, and …
12th July 2017
The Case-Shiller index has reported a sharp easing in seasonally-adjusted house price growth in the early stages of this year. But there are good reasons to think that the legacy of the surge in distressed sales seen during the financial crisis is …
7th July 2017
Mortgage applications for home purchase lost some steam in June, with the 0.9% m/m increase the smallest since February. With mortgage interest rates once again on the rise, and a severe shortage of homes for sale, housing market activity will struggle …
6th July 2017
Annual house price inflation was a robust 6.6% in May according to CoreLogic. The chronic lack of inventory is behind the rise, and with limited chance of inventory levels improving this year, house price growth is likely to stay close to that rate for …
5th July 2017
The drop in the average floor area of new homes started in the first quarter suggests builders are now moving towards constructing more affordable homes. And, given that a lack of cheaper homes has been one factor holding this segment of the housing …
28th June 2017
The 0.2% m/m gain in house prices was the smallest gain on the Case-Shiller measure since May 2014, and appears to confirm that price pressures have been easing since February. However, an easing in house price pressures is hard to square with very tight …
27th June 2017
As expected, new home sales bounced back from their large drop in April, with a solid 2.9% m/m rise in May. A strong economic backdrop and relatively large inventory of new homes should underpin sales for the rest of the year. But with the median sales …
23rd June 2017
The 1.1% m/m rise in existing home sales in May was better than expected, although that only partly revered the previous month’s decline. The bad news is that May’s rise in sales has only worsened the shortage of inventory, with the number of existing …
21st June 2017
The latest drop in mortgage interest rates has not boosted housing market activity, which is being constrained by a severe lack of inventory. With housing starts faltering, we doubt inventory levels will improve much this year, so home sales will see …
20th June 2017
Housing starts once again surprised on the downside in May, contracting for the third month in a row. The multifamily sector is primarily responsible for the decline, but single-family starts have also been lacklustre. However, with a severe shortage of …
16th June 2017
The share of households seeing now as a good time to sell has exceeded the share seeing now as a good to buy for the first time since records began in 2010. But, past rises in selling sentiment have not been accompanied by a significant rise in actual …
14th June 2017
Mortgage applications jumped by 7% in the week ending 2nd of June. Despite a fall in mortgage rates, that rise was driven not by remortaging, but by applications for home purchase, which were last higher in mid-2010. … Mortgage Applications …
7th June 2017
Despite a strong economic backdrop, housing activity has stalled since the start of the year. Mortgage applications for home purchase have done no more than hold their ground since their post-election jump, and existing home sales in April were …
6th June 2017
After seasonal-adjustment, CoreLogic reported that house price gains stabilised at a robust 0.8% m/m in April. A lack of homes for sale is acting to dissuade some buyers from entering the market, which has kept a lid on house price pressures. But, by the …
The recent slowdown in rental growth does not reflect an easing in tenant demand but rather seems to reflect a surge in the number of new multifamily developments being brought to market. As competition to secure tenants for these new buildings has …
1st June 2017
Disappointing activity data of late has not prevented headline rates of house price inflation from picking up again in the year to March. We expect house price inflation edge up further in the second quarter, before plateauing in the second half of the …
30th May 2017
The inventory of existing single-family homes for sale declined once again in April, and now stands at a 22-year low. That lack of supply contributed to a modest drop in home sales, despite some signs that first-time buyers are returning to the market. …
24th May 2017
New home sales recorded their largest monthly decline in over two years in April, reversing nearly all of the gains seen since the start of the year. Given the extremely low numbers of existing homes for sale, potential buyers should be looking more …
23rd May 2017
Survey evidence which points to relatively subdued levels of confidence in the housing market is not a sign that households are unduly worried about the prospect of rising interest rates. Rather, it is further proof of the adverse effects that very low …
17th May 2017
Housing starts surprised on the downside in April, dropping by 2.6% m/m and taking starts back to where they were a year ago. While the building permit data suggest the chance of a recovery in May is slim, with market conditions very tight, the …
16th May 2017
Affordability constraints have weighed on rental growth in recent months which, in theory, could lead to slower house price gains. However, the large number of variables which influence house prices mean the direct relationship between rental and house …
11th May 2017
The inventory of homes for sale continues to decline. The months’ supply of existing single-family homes dropped to just 3.9 in March, the lowest reading since records began in 1982. The lack of homes for sale has led to increased competition among …
9th May 2017
Despite a drop in mortgage rates, mortgage applications for both home purchase and refinance essentially just held their ground in April. That subdued picture reflects a lack of homes for sale, as potential home buyers have delayed putting in a mortgage …
3rd May 2017
President Trump’s plan to raise the standard deduction would make the mortgage interest deduction less valuable, which has raised some concerns in the housing industry. But, if anything, with households set to enjoy an overall tax cut, the housing market …
2nd May 2017
The March CoreLogic house price index offered no evidence of a let-up in house price growth. After seasonal-adjustment, the 0.9% m/m gain was the same as that seen in February. That pushed the annual growth rate up to 7.1%, a 34-month high. Very tight …
The gap that has developed between pending and existing home sales looks to be one more consequence of very low inventory levels. With such limited choice, buyers are increasingly reluctant to pull out once an offer has been accepted, leading to a rise in …
28th April 2017
