Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Even after a significant upward revision to September’s estimate, the 8.9% m/m drop in new home sales in October was enough to send sales to a 2½-year low. But a drop in mortgage interest rates over the past couple of weeks, and a corresponding jump in …
28th November 2018
With higher mortgage interest rates weighing on housing demand, it is not a surprise that the FHFA and Case-Shiller reported slower annual house price growth in September. We doubt mortgage rates have much further to rise but, with the economy set to slow …
27th November 2018
The first rise in existing home sales for six months in October provided a rare piece of good housing market news. That doesn’t signal the end of the slowdown, but it does indicate that the strong labour market is supporting housing demand, and that a …
21st November 2018
Single-family housing starts dropped for the second month in a row in October, and building permits saw their first annual decline in 4½ years. Faltering new home demand has hit homebuilder confidence. But housing demand is not collapsing and, with …
20th November 2018
Amazon’s decision to base its new, secondary HQs in New York City and Northern Virginia does not mean that rental markets in these cities will enjoy the kind of surge seen in Seattle. At the margins, however, even a modest boost to demand from Amazon’s …
15th November 2018
Amongst all the housing market gloom it is easy to overlook the fact that homes are selling quickly, prospective buyer traffic volumes are high and mortgage lenders are approving a high share of mortgage applications. None of that means that home sales …
13th November 2018
Unlike some, we do not think that the latest rise in homeownership among the under 35s heralds an imminent revival in housing market activity. In fact, it tells us more about the previous strength of the market than current or future conditions. Indeed, …
9th November 2018
The 30-year mortgage rate rose above 5% for the first time in over seven years in October, helping to explain why home purchase mortgage demand fell to a two-year low in October. If we are right in thinking that mortgage rates will peak in the next few …
7th November 2018
New and existing home sales fell again in September, as higher mortgage interest rates weighed on demand. But those homes that are selling are doing so quickly, and the strong labour market argues against a severe crash in activity. Indeed, measures of …
6th November 2018
Rising interest rates, declining house price expectations and cuts to the tax advantages of owning a home have all weighed on housing demand since the turn of the year. Of these, the drop in house price expectations appears to be the main driver, followed …
1st November 2018
After rising for eight consecutive quarters, the homeownership rate was unchanged in the third quarter. A lack of homes for sale, and higher interest rates weighing on home demand, help explain why the recovery in homeownership has stalled. But household …
30th October 2018
The apparent rebound in house price pressures, implied by the 0.6% m/m rise in August, reflects issues with the seasonal-adjustment process, rather than a sign that the slowdown in house price growth has come to an end. With higher interest rates weighing …
Rising interest rates have led to an increase in the share of mortgages originated with an adjustable rate (ARMs). But the market share is still small, and the products have not been targeted at riskier borrowers. Moreover, with nearly all ARMs having an …
25th October 2018
New home sales dropped for the fourth month in a row in September, as rising mortgage interest rates have weighed on housing demand. House price growth has also continued to ease, with the 6.1% y/y rise in August the slowest pace recorded in 20 months. …
24th October 2018
The housing market slowdown continued in September, with existing home sales seeing the largest month-on-month drop since early 2016. Sales are likely to stay weak, but with the labour market still performing strongly, we doubt that the recent easing in …
19th October 2018
A sharp drop in the share of homes seeing an increase in value over the past year is ringing alarm bells in some quarters. But the fact that housing demand is flat lining, rather than contracting and supply is tight both suggest that a soft landing is …
18th October 2018
The headline drop in housing starts in September was mainly driven by the volatile multifamily sector, but single-family starts also edged down. Looking forward, the good news is that lumber prices have now fallen back from their recent spike. The bad …
17th October 2018
Mortgage interest rates have continued to trend higher, and look poised to breach 5% for the first time since early 2011 in October. Alongside mortgage lending standards which are still tight, that has weighed on home sales. House price growth is also …
10th October 2018
Since the end of August, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate has risen by 16bps, to stand at 4.96% in the final week of September. Given that, the corresponding 0.9% m/m rise in mortgage applications may seem a little surprising. But with rates set …
3rd October 2018
Households electing not to move to avoid giving up a record low, fixed mortgage rate provide one potential explanation for the slowdown in home sales in recent months. However, the available evidence does not suggest that rate lock-in is a major …
1st October 2018
Housing market activity has experienced a marked slowdown since the start of the year, with mortgage applications, home sales, housing starts and house prices all losing momentum. Higher mortgage interest rates look to be the primary cause, although a …
28th September 2018
New home sales rose by 3.5% m/m in August. But given the volatile nature of the series, and a downward revision to July’s reading, the overall picture is one of flat sales since the end of last year. Relatively healthy inventory levels, and the fact that …
26th September 2018
The FHFA and Case-Shiller both reported a small rise in house prices of 0.2% m/m in July. That continues the run of weaker house price gains seen since the spring. Higher mortgage interest rates are weighing on housing demand and dampening price …
25th September 2018
The downward trend in existing homes sales seen since April came to a halt in August, with sales unchanged over the month. But that still left sales at 2½-year lows. With interest rates set to rise further, and inventory not far off record lows, the …
20th September 2018
The headline 9.2% m/m rise in housing starts in August hides an otherwise disappointing report. The jump in starts was driven by the volatile multifamily sector, with single-family construction seeing only a marginal gain. Moreover, single-family building …
19th September 2018
Experience from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma last year suggests the share of delinquent mortgages in the Carolinas, Virginia and Georgia will rise following Hurricane Florence. However, with the negative equity share in all four states close to or below the …
14th September 2018
Housing market activity has slowed since the start of the year, as rising interest rates and record low affordable inventory has weighed on home buying sentiment. With interest rates set to rise further, and not much chance of an improvement in the supply …
12th September 2018
Mortgage interest rates, credit standards and buyer sentiment have all been stable over the past couple of months. But both mortgage applications for home purchase and home sales have seen further declines, and July single-family housing starts failed to …
10th September 2018
The gradual contraction in mortgage demand continued in August, with applications for both refinancing and home purchase loans seeing month-on-month falls. To date, the drop in home purchase demand has been relatively modest. But that may reflect a …
5th September 2018
According to the Case-Shiller index, house price growth continued to slow in June. The rise of 6.2% y/y was the smallest annual gain since November 2017. The recent moderation in mortgage applications for home purchase suggests growth will slow further …
28th August 2018
New home sales declined for the second month in a row in July, with a 1.7% m/m drop taking sales to a 10-month low. Housing demand is faltering as buyers have been put off by the lack of affordable inventory, and that is taking some of the heat out of …
23rd August 2018
The fourth month in a row of falling existing home sales has left them at a 2½ year low. On the supply side, a lack of affordable inventory is constraining sales. But demand is also falling back over concerns that prices are too high. Neither of those …
22nd August 2018
The lacklustre performance of housing starts seen since the start of year continued in July, with a marginal gain of under 1% m/m in both single and multifamily starts. Single-family starts are being held back by constraints on the supply side and …
16th August 2018
There are a couple of reasons to hope that the drop in lumber prices over the past couple of months will be a positive for the housing market. First, it should encourage builders to start work on the large number of homes that have been delayed as lumber …
15th August 2018
Housing affordability has reached a 10-year low. Even so, homes are still more affordable now than at any time prior to 2009. Accordingly, improving inventory levels and further gradual easing in mortgage lending standards, not affordability, are the key …
10th August 2018
Housing market activity has come off the boil, as rising interest rates, a lack of inventory and concerns that house prices are too high have all weighed on buying sentiment. Both new and existing home sales fell back in June, and mortgage applications …
9th August 2018
In this follow-up to our recent Global Economics Focus “Why is property so often the source of trouble?” we assess where in the world the biggest risks to property prices lie. House price falls in a number of places look imminent. And there are several …
8th August 2018
It is now ten years since the property-induced global financial crisis and house prices in many countries are rising rapidly again. So now seems like a good time to assess whether property, residential and commercial, is on course to cause trouble for the …
2nd August 2018
Mortgage applications for both refinance and home purchase fell back in July, continuing the recent run of easing demand. The drop in mortgage interest rates seen at the beginning of the month proved short-lived, and rates are once again on the rise. That …
1st August 2018
The May Case-Shiller house price index provided further evidence that the housing market is losing steam. The 0.4% m/m rise meant annual house price inflation held steady at 6.4%. High house prices and rising mortgage interest rates have led to weakening …
31st July 2018
The US homeownership rate was essentially unchanged in Q2 for the second consecutive quarter, confirming that the nascent recovery in the share of homeownership, which began in 2016, has stalled. Consistent with that, the rental vacancy rate fell back …
26th July 2018
Given the recent decline in home buyer sentiment, as well as the dip in existing home sales already reported, June’s fall in new home sales should not come as a surprise. That said the dip did more than simply reverse May’s rise, adding to the impression …
25th July 2018
According to the FHFA, the easing in the average pace of monthly house price gains was extended into May. The implication is that the recent drop in home sales and home buying sentiment appear to be taking their toll on house price pressures. … FHFA House …
24th July 2018
June’s drop in existing home sales means that activity levels in the first six months of this year were 2% lower than in the same period of 2017. Indeed, at 5.38m annualised, sales in June sat close to the centre of the 5.2m to 5.6m range in which they …
23rd July 2018
Alongside lot, labour and material shortages, builders are now having to contend with growing evidence that the sales environment is becoming more testing. While the strong labour market, and lack of existing homes for sale, argues against a sustained …
20th July 2018
Both single and multifamily housing starts recorded substantial declines in June. The fall of 12.3% m/m in total starts was the largest month-on-month drop since the end of 2016. Building permits were also subdued. Concerns about over-capacity may be …
18th July 2018
The share of Americans who point to high house prices as a reason not to buy looks elevated in relation to the level of real house prices and mortgage affordability. That may reflect memories of the financial crisis, when prices crashed by over 25%. That …
13th July 2018
The recent drop in home buying sentiment, partly driven by concerns that prices are too high, is now evident in lackluster mortgage applications for home purchase. Applications fell 0.4% m/m in June, and are unchanged over the year. Even with inventory …
11th July 2018
It is possible that the large number of new apartments entering the market over the past year has acted to increase the ‘natural’ vacancy rate. Uncertainty about achievable rents in new buildings means landlords have been willing to hold onto empty units …
6th July 2018
Demand for home purchase and refinancing both dropped back in June, as higher mortgage interest rates and inventory shortages weighed on housing market activity. With interest rates set to trend higher, and potential buyers increasingly concerned about …
5th July 2018
