Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Rise in mortgage rates dampens refinancing demand The first rise in mortgage rates since November last year dampened refinancing demand in September, but applications for home purchase saw a small gain. However that rise merely took home purchase demand …
2nd October 2019
A surge in demand for refinancing has stretched lenders’ capacity, lengthening the time it takes to close a mortgage. That has disrupted the usual relationship between pending and existing home sales. While that disruption should not last long, it means …
26th September 2019
New home sales bounce back from weak July The volatility in new home sales continued into August, with a rise of 7.7% m/m not quite reversing the fall recorded in July. Flat demand for home purchase mortgages over the past couple of weeks argues against …
25th September 2019
House price growth stabilises The gradual slowdown in house price growth seen over the past year came to a halt in July. Case-Shiller reported annual growth was unchanged at 3.2%, and the FHFA recorded a slight acceleration to 5.0%. Lower mortgage …
24th September 2019
Homes sales surprise on the upside Existing home sales increased for the second consecutive month in August, to reach an 18-month high. But a number of factors argue against a sustained rise in activity. Demand for home purchase mortgages has seen only a …
19th September 2019
Rent controls usually discourage new rental developments. But the Californian bill that is set to be signed into law may in fact boost the construction of new units. New rental buildings are exempt from the restrictions and, by ruling out any new local …
18th September 2019
Low mortgage interest rates give starts a boost Even ignoring the surge in volatile multifamily starts, August was a good month for homebuilding. Single-family starts and permits both saw decent gains, as low mortgage interest rates, a solid labour market …
The sharp rise in the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rate primarily reflects the speed at which yields dropped back. But tighter credit conditions also look to be playing a role. We expect the spread to ease back over the …
13th September 2019
Summary: The 30-year mortgage rate has dropped to its lowest level since late 2016, but that has not given much of a boost to home demand. Indeed, mortgage applications for home purchase dropped back over July and August. (See Chart 1.) A lack of …
11th September 2019
Home purchase demand drops despite further fall in mortgage rates August’s rebound in overall mortgage applications was driven by buoyant refinancing activity, while home purchase applications fell. A further drop in the 10-year Treasury yield means that …
4th September 2019
Concerns around the economic outlook have encouraged banks to tighten mortgage lending standards, offsetting some of the impact of lower interest rates on home sales. Surveys suggest that tightening will continue. Alongside low inventory, that will act as …
29th August 2019
Annual house price growth continues to ease Both the FHFA and Case-Shiller reported a further slowdown in annual house price growth in June. But with mortgage interest rates falling to near three-year lows and inventory tight, we doubt growth on the …
27th August 2019
New home sales volatile over the summer The substantial drop in new home sales in July is not as bad it looks, as a large upward revision to the previous month’s estimate meant that decline came from a 12-year high. A slowing economy rules out a strong …
23rd August 2019
Rental growth typically falls back during economic slowdowns, but we think rents will hold up relatively well over the next couple of years. With the rental vacancy rate close to record lows the market is starting from a position of a strength, and a lack …
22nd August 2019
Inventory falls to a 15-month low Existing home sales managed their first year-on-year rise for 17-months in July, but that is not the start of a sustained upward trend. Home purchase mortgage demand has not received much of a boost from lower interest …
21st August 2019
With mortgage rates set to drop to 3.8% over the next couple of weeks, and inventory tight, we have edged up our house price forecast and now expect a rise of 3% this year. But a slowing economy and tighter mortgage lending standards argue against a …
19th August 2019
Single-family starts continue their slow recovery Single-family starts and building permits both increased in July, as lower interest rates, a tight existing home market and the decline in the backlog of previously authorised homes have encouraged …
16th August 2019
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index has hit a record high, but the detail shows the share of households who see now as a good time to buy is still relatively low. High house prices and a lack of inventory are keeping that component of sentiment …
14th August 2019
The upcoming economic slowdown brings with it the risk of a rise in mortgage delinquencies. However, tighter mortgage lending standards since the financial crisis means borrowers today are more resilient to shocks. That will minimise payment problems from …
8th August 2019
Lower rates fail to attract more buyers to the market Despite a steady decline in mortgage interest rates, mortgage applications for home purchase had dropped to a five-month low by the end of July. The recent drop in the 10-year Treasury yield means …
7th August 2019
Summary: The fall in mortgage interest rates gave mortgage applications for home purchase a boost earlier this year, but a lack of inventory meant that did not translate into home sales. (See Chart 1.) Total single-family sales declined by 0.5% m/m in …
6th August 2019
The number of mortgage applications for home purchase jumped earlier this year, but those buyers came up against the tightest market conditions for 40-years. Increased competition for homes crowded out cash buyers, which helps to explain the growing gap …
2nd August 2019
Subdued demand leads to further slowdown in house price growth Annual house price growth edged back once again in May, with subdued demand and lender caution taking some of the heat out of the market. That slowdown is set to continue as the economy …
30th July 2019
A steady decline in home sales last year pushed the homeownership rate to a 1½-year low in the second quarter, and we doubt it will recover over the next couple of years. A slowing economy will prevent the recent drop in mortgage rates from boosting …
26th July 2019
New home sales recover some lost ground New home sales rose by a solid 7.0% m/m in June, making up some of the ground they lost over April and May. A healthy new home inventory will continue to support sales, but the dip in mortgage applications for home …
24th July 2019
Lower interest rates fail to boost existing home sales A steady fall in mortgage interest rates has not given a boost to existing home sales, which dropped back in June and have now recorded year-on-year declines for the past 16-months. A slowing economy …
23rd July 2019
A bill which recently passed the House to cut the FHA upfront mortgage premium by 25 bps for first-time buyers who take a financial management course is too small to halt the downward trend in the FHA market share. While a weaker labour market will slow …
18th July 2019
Rise in single-family starts to continue The volatile multifamily sector was responsible for the overall decline in both housing starts and building permits in June. Single-family starts and permits both edged out a small gain and, with new home sales set …
17th July 2019
Summary: Lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring an upturn in housing activity. True, there was a strong rise in mortgage approvals last month as borrowers took advantage of falling rates. But this was mainly due to refinancing, and house purchase …
9th July 2019
Refinancing drives surge in mortgage applications Mortgage applications surged in June, as existing borrowers took advantage of declining mortgage interest rates. Meanwhile, house purchase applications also rose, but only modestly. Looking ahead, we …
3rd July 2019
Overview – The sharp fall in mortgage interest rates seen since the start of the year has not spurred much of a recovery in housing market activity. Home sales and housing starts have more-or-less held their ground, and house price growth has been on a …
28th June 2019
New home sales set to rebound over next couple of months A healthy level of inventory means the new home market is well placed to benefit from the recent rise in housing demand, and we therefore expect sales will rebound from the drop seen in May over the …
25th June 2019
Existing home sales saw a decent rise in May, but that doesn’t mean activity will now take-off even with interest rates set for further falls. Subdued home buying sentiment, a lack of inventory and gradual tightening in mortgage lending standards will …
21st June 2019
Any new housing in the San Francisco Bay area is welcome, but Google’s plan to help build 20,000 homes over the next decade will have little impact on prices. The San Francisco metro has the tightest housing market in the country, and any new homes will …
20th June 2019
The decline in housing starts in May was driven by the single-family sector, which recorded a 6.4% m/m decline. But single-family building permits rose for the first time since November last year. A lack of existing home inventory is supporting new home …
18th June 2019
Unlike house price expectations, the theoretical link between rent expectations and actual rental growth is weak. Indeed, changes in rental expectations have proven to be a poor leading indicator. Accordingly, we doubt the recent rise in expectations …
13th June 2019
Mortgage interest rates are set to fall to their lowest level since the end of 2016, but that will not trigger a surge in housing market activity. Concerns over the health of the economy means home buying sentiment is subdued, and a lack of inventory will …
10th June 2019
Despite mortgage interest rates falling to 18-month lows, mortgage applications for home purchase declined steadily over May. Concerns over the health of the economy, and a lack of inventory, is weighing on buyer sentiment. Neither of those factors will …
5th June 2019
The number of apartments completed for the rental sector has reached its highest level since records began 20-years ago. But absorption rates are low, and a slowing economy means household formation will ease. However, developers are responding to the …
3rd June 2019
The recent fall in the 10-year Treasury yield means the 30-year mortgage rate is set to drop to 1½-year lows over the next few weeks. But we doubt that will trigger another jump in mortgage applications for home purchase. Unlike earlier this year, there …
30th May 2019
March’s easing in house price growth was consistent with our expectations. Looking ahead, we expect that slowdown to continue, although with inventory levels very low and mortgage interest rates falling, we expect only a gentle slowdown in house price …
28th May 2019
The drop in new home sales in April came from an upwardly revised March figure, and sales were up 7% over the year. A healthier level of inventory is helping the new home market outperform the existing home sector, as is a gradual shift toward building …
23rd May 2019
With inventory levels close to record lows, we suspect many frustrated home movers are instead choosing to improve their current home. We therefore place more faith in the BEA estimate of home improvement spending, which in contrast to the Census Bureau …
22nd May 2019
Existing home sales dropped back for the second consecutive month in April. A lack of inventory has constrained sales even as lower mortgage interest rates have given a boost to housing demand. With that boost to demand set to fade as the economy slows, …
21st May 2019
Housing starts maintained their recent revival during April, while building permits also rose. Strong housebuilder confidence and solid underlying demand are expected to support starts over the next year or more, despite the economic slowdown. … Housing …
16th May 2019
Tax reform and lower lumber prices have led to a rise in the construction of smaller, lower-priced homes. We expect that trend will continue, helping to relieve the shortage of affordable homes on the market and supporting new home sales. However, labour …
15th May 2019
Annual house price growth in San Francisco, and some other western cities, looks set to turn negative over the next few months. But with no sign of a rise in the number of homes being put on the market, and a recovery in sales since the start of the year, …
9th May 2019
A gentle rise in mortgage interest rates led to a drop in mortgage applications for purchase over April, reversing some of the gains seen since the start of March. Subdued home buying sentiment suggests sales will struggle to gain traction this year, …
7th May 2019
The introduction of tougher lending standards for mortgages insured by the FHA will provide another headwind to housing demand this year. While the removal of similar standards in 2016 did not have a noticeable impact on the share of FHA loans approved, …
2nd May 2019
A gentle rise in mortgage interest rates over April helped cut mortgage applications for home purchase in the latter part of the month. And with home buying sentiment only receiving a modest boost from the past drop in interest rates, home purchase demand …
1st May 2019
