Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
Lower rates unlikely to boost applications for home purchase Concerns over the coronavirus have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to record lows, which helped push mortgage rates to a seven-year low last week. That gave a substantial boost to refinancing …
4th March 2020
A sharp reduction in mortgage interest rates over 2019 increased the benefit of refinancing for recent borrowers, and as a result the median age of refinanced mortgages dropped to just two years in the third quarter, a 16-year low. That cut available …
3rd March 2020
In light of the accelerating spread of the coronavirus – and the economic disruption that is likely to follow – we are pulling down our GDP growth forecasts for Q1 and Q2 of this year. Growth is likely to rebound over the second half of the year, but most …
2nd March 2020
New home sales start the year at a 12½-year high Warm weather and a healthy inventory helped new homes make a strong start to the year. A drop in home purchase mortgage applications during February means some of that surge will be reversed over the next …
26th February 2020
A flight to safety and belief that the Fed will cut rates have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to record lows. But we doubt the 30-year mortgage rate will follow suit. Stretched lender capacity and increased caution will act to widen the spread against …
25th February 2020
House price growth ends 2019 on a strong note Low mortgage rates and tight inventory have supported house prices in recent months, with Case-Shiller reporting a jump in annual growth to 3.8% in December, a 10-month high. But looking ahead stretched home …
Existing home inventory sees further declines Given the plunge in the pending home sales index in December, the 1.3% m/m drop in existing home sales in January was smaller than we had expected. But that implies sales will see a more substantial fall in …
21st February 2020
Rental growth of 3.5% to 4.5% y/y over the next five years is the key reason why we expect apartments will outperform other commercial property sectors. Stretched home valuations, tightening mortgage lending standards and a record low number of homes for …
20th February 2020
Warm weather supports housing starts in January The fifth warmest January on record meant housing starts only reversed some of their December surge, with single-family starts remaining above 1 million annualised. That impact will unwind over the next …
19th February 2020
The coronavirus is contained in the US, and with Chinese construction imports and non-resident buyers too small to have a meaningful impact, the housing market has so far escaped the virus largely unscathed. But if a widespread outbreak occurred, a …
12th February 2020
A decline in apartment completions helped keep rental vacancy rates low over the latter part of 2019. But strong multifamily starts over the past couple of years suggest completions will pick-up in 2020. (See Chart 1.) That will lead to a modest rise in …
11th February 2020
Refinance demand surges as mortgage rates hit three-year low A rush to safe-haven assets helped drive the 30-year mortgage rate to a three-year low by the end of January. That triggered a surge in mortgage applications for refinance, and a decent rise in …
5th February 2020
A rise in the number of vacant homes being repaired is an indication that some owners of empty properties are planning to put them up for sale. That may provide some relief to a tight housing market, but the impact is unlikely to be large. From close to a …
4th February 2020
While not at dangerous levels, the house price-to-earnings ratio does suggest home valuations are stretched. With mortgage interest rates unlikely to fall much further, and limited prospect for a relaxation in credit conditions, that will limit house …
31st January 2020
Annual house price growth ticks up Low mortgage interest rates and tight supply helped annual house price growth on the Case-Shiller measure increase for the second month in a row in November. But stretched valuations, and tightening mortgage lending …
28th January 2020
Disappointing end to the year, but new home sales set for a strong 2020 New home sales ended 2019 on a weak note, declining in each of the final three months of the year. But a high traffic of prospective buyers in January points to a swift recovery in …
27th January 2020
There are encouraging signs that the cost and availability of materials, lots and labour are all starting to improve. Coupled with strong new home demand, and a shift toward the construction of cheaper homes, that supports our above-consensus call for …
23rd January 2020
Record low inventory means existing home sales will hold steady in 2020 The inventory of existing homes dropped to another record low in December, which means the solid rise in sales seen over the month is unlikely to be the start of an upward trend. Even …
22nd January 2020
Single-family housing starts and new home sales set for another good year A lack of homes for sale means forecasters agree that existing home sales will just tread water over 2020. But we are more optimistic than others on the outlook for new home sales …
21st January 2020
Single-family starts reach 1 million annualised for first time since 2007 The surge in housing starts in December in part reflects a jump in the volatile multifamily sector and favourable weather conditions. But single-family starts are well-placed for …
17th January 2020
Summary: The 30-year mortgage rate ended 2019 at close to 4%, and it is set to stay at around that level over the next or so. But tighter credit conditions will offset some of the benefit of lower rates on housing demand, and existing home sales will be …
14th January 2020
With mortgage rates set for a period of stability over the next couple of years changes in credit conditions, and in particular debt-to-income ratios, will be an important driver of house prices. Given the GSEs have been instructed to act …
10th January 2020
Demand for home purchase mortgages unchanged over 2019 A 1.9% m/m drop in mortgage applications for home purchase in December left demand at the end of 2019 unchanged from the start of the year. The boost to demand from lower mortgage interest rates was …
8th January 2020
New home sales well-placed for another strong year The rise in new home sales in November came from a downwardly revised October reading but, looking through the volatility, sales have had a good year. Low mortgage rates, an increase in the supply of …
23rd December 2019
Overview – Mortgage interest rates have been close to 4% since October, and we expect they will stay at that level over the next couple of years. However, the support that will give to housing demand will be offset to some extent by tighter mortgage …
20th December 2019
Record low inventory constrains home sales The inventory of existing homes for sale dropped to a record low in November, which helps explain why home sales declined. We doubt that supply picture will improve over the next year and, coupled with tighter …
19th December 2019
Single-family starts set for another strong year Single-family building permits increased for the seventh month in a row in November. And, with homebuilder confidence hitting a 20-year high in December, starts are set for another year of steady growth. …
17th December 2019
Against the CFPB’s expectations, use of the qualified mortgage patch has not declined since it was introduced in 2013. If it is not replaced before it expires in early 2021, we therefore anticipate significant market disruption, and house prices are …
13th December 2019
Summary: A narrowing in the spread against the 10-year Treasury yield kept the 30-year mortgage rate close to 4% even as yields reached a three-month high in early November. Mortgage rates are likely to stay close to 4% over the next couple of years. But …
9th December 2019
Concerns around rising interest rates drive up home purchase demand Concerns that a jump in the 10-year Treasury yield would herald a rise in mortgage rates look to have persuaded some buyers to bring forward a home purchase application, with demand …
4th December 2019
With mortgage rates set to remain close to their current low level over the next couple of years, refinancing activity will be strong in 2020. Tighter credit conditions will constrain demand to some extent, but a decline in the number of households who …
3rd December 2019
House prices benefit from lower mortgage rates Both the FHFA and Case-Shiller reported a rise in annual house price growth in September, as low mortgage interest rates and tight existing home inventory supported values. But inventory is healthier in the …
26th November 2019
We now expect mortgage interest rates to stay close to their current level over the next couple of years. That will give some support to housing demand but, as was the case this year, offsetting factors such as modest economic growth, tightening credit …
25th November 2019
Homes sales edge up, but faltering confidence rules out sustained growth Existing home sales saw a marginal rise in October, but the gain wasn’t enough to reverse September’s dip and sales are still below their level in 2017. With the inventory of homes …
21st November 2019
Single-family building permits hit 12-year high A steady rise in new home sales since the start of the year helped single-family building permits reach a 12-year high in October. A gradual move toward constructing starter homes, which are in short supply, …
19th November 2019
Tight supply of affordable homes, and a relatively large increase in their price, are encouraging builders back to the starter home sector. But a slowing economy and tighter credit conditions rule out a substantial shift to cheaper homes. Instead, we …
14th November 2019
Households frustrated by the lack of affordable single-family homes for sale will find conditions are no better in the rental market, where the number of homes available for under $1,250 a month has dropped 40% since 2013. That will boost investor demand …
12th November 2019
Applications for home purchase drop back as economy slows Despite stable interest rates, demand for home purchase mortgages dropped back in October, and had reached a two-month low by the end of the month. Concerns around the economic outlook, a shortage …
6th November 2019
Summary: The 30-year mortgage rate increased to an eight-week high in October, which helps explain why mortgage applications for home purchase have been trending down since mid-September. A lack of inventory, slowing economy and tightening credit …
5th November 2019
The number of vacant single-family homes for sale has dropped 25% since the start of 2012. But the situation is far worse at the cheaper end of the market, where the inventory of homes priced under $250,000 has halved over the same period. That will …
31st October 2019
Annual house price growth stable The rise in month-on-month house price growth in August largely reflects issues with the seasonal-adjustment of the Case-Shiller index, rather than a sign that growth is once again accelerating. Annual gains were stable, …
29th October 2019
New home sales unchanged in September New home sales more-or-less held their ground in September, leaving them close to 12-year highs. Healthy levels of inventory will help sales make further progress over the next year or so but, given overall flat …
24th October 2019
House price growth resumes its downward trend Annual house price growth on the FHFA measure resumed its downward trend in August, slowing to a five-year low of 4.6%. Lower mortgage interest rates should help price growth stabilise over the remainder of …
23rd October 2019
Some leading indicators of house price growth, such as the size of mortgage approvals and months’ supply of new homes on the market, are pointing to an acceleration in growth to around 5% y/y by the end of the year. But a slowing economy and tightening …
22nd October 2019
Homes sales drop back due to lack of inventory Following two months of gains, existing home sales dropped back in September. Given mortgage applications for home purchase have been more-or-less flat over the past few months, that decline in activity was …
Single-family starts make steady upward progress Strong new home sales have helped boost homebuilder confidence to a 20-month high, and single-family building permits and starts both recorded a small rise in September. The lack of existing home inventory …
17th October 2019
Over the past couple of years buyers of high-end homes in New York City have been hit by higher taxes, and can no longer hide their identity. That has cut home buyer demand and house prices, and may lead to an increase in rental supply. But, at the same …
16th October 2019
Summary: A slowing economy has increased concerns around job security, which has weighed on mortgage applications for home purchase even as mortgage interest rates have stayed close to three-year lows. Coupled with low levels of home inventory, that will …
11th October 2019
A hike in the threshold at which mortgages require a home appraisal, from $250,000 to $400,000, is long overdue and has the potential to reduce closing times, raise closing rates and boost house prices. However, with mortgages sold to or guaranteed by the …
9th October 2019
Overview – Mortgage interest rates recently dropped to three-year lows, but mortgage applications for home purchase are more-or-less unchanged from where they were at the start of the year. A slowing economy, tighter mortgage lending standards and lack of …
4th October 2019
