Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
The 30-year mortgage rate fell below 3% last week, but we doubt it will stay there for long. A rise in 10-year Treasury yields means mortgage rates will soon tick-up. That will weigh on housing demand, which had already been losing steam. Indeed, mortgage …
12th November 2020
Recovery in mortgage applications likely a false dawn Mortgage applications recovered some ground in October, as an upturn in refinancing offset a fall in home purchase demand. But the underlying trend is broadly flat since June and we don’t expect any …
4th November 2020
Wealthy buyers seeking homes during the pandemic have driven the share of existing homes sold for over $500,000 to a record high. A lack of inventory has prevented a similar rise in the new home sector, and that may persuade builders to refocus on …
2nd November 2020
Despite issues with sampling due to COVID-19, the third quarter HVS survey did provide some interesting information on the impact of the virus. A surge in median asking rents was caused by a jump in the share of expensive multifamily units on the market, …
28th October 2020
House price growth gathers steam on back of strong demand House prices had another strong month in August, with annual growth on the FHFA measure surging to 8.1%, a 14-year high. Record low mortgage rates have given a boost to housing demand, and record …
27th October 2020
New home sales drop back for first time since April New home sales dropped back in September, the first contraction since the height of the pandemic in April. Pent-up demand from the spring is now dissipating and tight inventory, particularly of completed …
26th October 2020
Despite a surge in mortgage applications, holdings of residential loans by commercial banks declined in August and September. We suspect that divergence is due to a rise in mortgage repayments, which would be in line with the jump in the saving rate. In …
22nd October 2020
Current pace of sales growth cannot be sustained Existing home sales had another strong month in September, and month-on-month growth has now averaged 14% since June. But with housing demand easing back, and inventory getting ever tighter, that pace of …
Single-family starts see further gains on back of strong new home demand Single-family starts and building permits had another strong month in September, as builders increased production on the back of buoyant demand and dwindling inventory. A moderation …
20th October 2020
Overview – Record low mortgage rates, pent-up demand from the spring and some movement out of cities have helped drive home sales to 13-year highs. But with inventory falling to record lows, mortgage lending standards tightening and unemployment elevated, …
16th October 2020
Record low mortgage rates have continued to support home sales, with the pending homes sales index reaching its highest level since the series began in 2001. (See Chart 1.) But a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield implies mortgage rates will now tick-up. …
9th October 2020
Retail has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis and lasting changes to online spending will bring further pain. While our estimates suggest that the impact is likely to be less severe than structural change in offices, the rental outlook is expected to …
8th October 2020
Mortgage rates fall again, but will soon bottom out Mortgage applications were once again stable in September, with a small fall in refinancing applications offset by a small rise in home purchase demand. Mortgage rates hit another record low by the end …
7th October 2020
Surging demand has led to a sharp drop in the number of new homes for sale, with the fall driven by a collapse in the inventory of completed homes. A jump in single-family building permits will provide some support to overall new home supply but, given …
30th September 2020
House prices rise as inventory hits record lows House price growth saw a further acceleration in July, as solid housing demand and low inventory put upward pressure on home values. With mortgage rates set to stay close to record lows, and no improvement …
29th September 2020
Supply of new homes falls to 57-year low Another strong rise in new home sales in August, to a 14-year high, pushed the months’ supply of homes to its lowest since records began in 1963. With housing starts constrained by surging lumber prices and lot …
24th September 2020
House price growth accelerates as demand booms House price growth saw another strong gain in July, as surging demand and record low inventory put upward pressure on values. But with demand set to ease over the coming months, and mortgage lending standards …
23rd September 2020
Growth in existing home sales moderates Existing home sales rose again in August, although at a more modest pace compared to June and July. With pent-up demand from the spring having now worked itself through, unemployment elevated and inventory at record …
22nd September 2020
Single-family starts return to pre-COVID levels on back of strong demand At 1.021m annualised, single-family starts have now fully reversed their COVID-related drop. And, with building permits hitting a 13-year high in August and homebuilder confidence at …
17th September 2020
The sharp drop in the rental absorption rate would, other things equal, be expected to weigh on multifamily housing starts. However, the recent shift away from cities will provide an opportunity for developers to focus more heavily on the for-sale market, …
16th September 2020
Applications for home purchase have levelled off, but at a level 25% higher than a year ago. That is now feeding through to home sales, with the pending home sales index rising to a 15-year high in July. However, a lack of inventory will soon put a brake …
11th September 2020
Even after the immediate threat of COVID has receded, we expect as many as 50% of office-based employees will work from home at least once a week. But the move away from cities and toward the suburbs should prove short-lived. Most of those leaving cities …
9th September 2020
In contrast to the surge in mortgage forbearance following the CARES Act, we doubt the recently announced eviction ban will trigger a jump in rental arrears. For those who can afford it, deciding not to pay the rent still comes with significant costs. …
4th September 2020
Mortgage demand stable as interest rates fall to record low Following a surge in May, mortgage applications for home purchase have since stabilised at a level around 25% higher than last year. Pent-up demand, record low mortgage rates and some evidence of …
2nd September 2020
Given interest rates are already very low, we doubt any additional stimulus introduced because of the change to the inflation target will provide a significant boost to the economy or house prices. Indeed, the past relationship between interest rates and …
27th August 2020
Housing market recovery gathers pace New home sales surged to a 13½-year high in July, as record low mortgage rates, pent-up demand from the spring and a shortage of existing homes for sale all boosted activity. Tight markets and rising demand have also …
25th August 2020
Existing home sales surge to 13½-year high Existing home sales had another strong month in July, surging to a 13½-year high. Pent-up demand from the spring, record low mortgage rates and some impact from households moving to the suburbs has helped drive …
21st August 2020
The foreclosure process ground to a halt in the second quarter, as lenders were banned from foreclosing on federally-backed mortgages and the court system largely closed. While we expect most of those who applied for forbearance due to COVID-related …
20th August 2020
Homebuilder confidence hits record high and starts surge Housing starts surged for the second consecutive month in July, and single-family starts are now only 10% below their pre-COVID level. Flight to the suburbs may explain some of the increase in …
18th August 2020
The median credit score on mortgages originated in the second quarter surged to a 21-year high, as lenders tightened standards in response to uncertainty over the labour market. While unemployment is now falling back, we expect it will remain above 5% to …
13th August 2020
Mortgage rates have continued to fall, hitting a record low 3.14% at the end of July. Alongside the reopening of parts of the economy, and pent-up demand from the spring, that has helped home sales bounce back strongly from their COVID-related dip. …
12th August 2020
We think that the enforced remote-working experiment of recent months will cause a dramatic demand shift in the office sector, with as many as 50% of office-based employees working from home at least once a week. Even with a heroic supply response through …
6th August 2020
Home purchase demand eases back despite record low mortgage rates Mortgage applications for home purchase trended down over July, even as the 30-year mortgage rate fell to a record low 3.14%. The working through of pent-up demand from the spring, record …
5th August 2020
The unprecedented surge in household formation and the homeownership rate in the second quarter is not a sign that Americans are fleeing rental apartments in the city to buy homes in the suburbs. Rather, issues with data collection due to the coronavirus …
29th July 2020
House price growth slowdown begins House prices rose by just 0.1% m/m in May on the Case-Shiller index, which together with a slowdown on the FHFA index indicates that the collapse in sales caused by the coronavirus is now weighing on prices. The rapid …
28th July 2020
New home sales reverse all their COVID-related drop New home sales have now more than reversed the drop seen earlier in the year, reaching a 13-year high in June. The sales outlook is positive - new home buyer traffic has returned to 22-year highs, and …
24th July 2020
Overview – Record low mortgage rates have helped housing demand to recover swiftly from the shock of the coronavirus, with mortgage applications for home purchase recently hitting a 10-year high. Home sales have also jumped back, but a second wave of …
23rd July 2020
Home sales bounce back, but recovery will be slower from here The reopening of the economy and pent-up demand from the spring helped existing home sales bounce back in June. However, with a second wave of infections leading to renewed shutdowns and …
22nd July 2020
Housing starts surge on back of strong new home demand Housing starts bounced-back in June, and are now down only 4% y/y. A surge in housing demand to 10-year highs, and a lack of existing home inventory, has boosted new home sales and reversed all the …
17th July 2020
Global property markets are expected to see a lasting impact from the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces looking at the post-pandemic future across the main property types. We start this by …
15th July 2020
As COVID infections have surged, the slowdown or reversal of reopening across the South will weigh on home sales. Given sellers and buyers now have more experience in transacting during the pandemic, we doubt the fall in sales in the South will match the …
14th July 2020
After a brief pause in the second half of June, record low mortgage rates helped push applications for home purchase to an 11-year high in the first week of July. That will help reverse the earlier dip in existing home sales but, with credit conditions …
9th July 2020
The average value of a home purchase mortgage application hit a record high $359,000 at the end of June. But that doesn’t mean house price growth is set to take-off. An increase in the share of new home sales, tighter credit conditions and perhaps …
6th July 2020
The hit to apartment absorption from the coronavirus has occurred at the same time as a large number of new units are set to enter the market. Even with current tenants staying put, that raises the risk of a spike in the vacancy rate. However, …
1st July 2020
Home purchase demand flattens out as country reopens Mortgage applications for home purchase dropped back over the last two weeks of June, even as mortgage rates fell to record lows. The pent-up demand from the spring buying season now looks to have …
House price growth accelerates, but slow down on the way The further acceleration in annual house price growth on the Case-Shiller measure in April reflected the strength of the housing market at the start of the year, when the impact of the coronavirus …
30th June 2020
It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government policies, many economies should be able more or less to …
29th June 2020
Slower house price growth but no slump on the horizon Following a gain of 0.1% m/m in March, the modest 0.2% m/m rise house prices in April shows a marked weakening in house price growth. It is too soon to tell how much of an impact the coronavirus has …
24th June 2020
New home sales benefit from reopening New home sales reversed most of their coronavirus related decline in May, helped by the gradual reopening of the country. A healthy level of inventory means new sales are well-placed to take advantage of the recent …
23rd June 2020
Existing home sales bottom-out Existing home sales saw another substantial decline in May but with the country reopening, and housing demand surging on the back of record low mortgage interest rates, we suspect they have now bottomed out. That said, …
22nd June 2020
