Filtered by Subscriptions: US Housing Use setting US Housing
As the country begins to return normal next year, the hardest hit apartment markets in the country will recover. New York City looks particularly well-placed to benefit from returning non-office-based workers. Combined with aggressive rent cuts, which …
16th December 2020
The surge in home sales looks to be running out of steam. The pending home sales index dropped back in September and October, and that points to a fall in existing home sales in November. (See Chart 1.) With pent-up demand from the spring now largely …
9th December 2020
An important driver of the surge in home sales over recent months has been households leaving apartments in cities to escape COVID-19 and acquire more space to work from home. But a fall in the share of single-family and completed new homes in total home …
7th December 2020
News about a vaccine has boosted financial markets and we have revised up our global economic expectations for the next two years or so. But while we think that this bodes well for the medium term, next year is still likely to be tough for most property …
2nd December 2020
Thanksgiving holiday skews purchase applications higher Issues with seasonal adjustment over the Thanksgiving holiday, when many more people stayed home and perhaps applied for a mortgage, led to a spike in home purchase mortgage applications in the final …
Low inventory weighs on home sales New home sales levelled off in October, suggesting that pent-up demand from the spring is running out. In addition, strong sales over the summer months have left the supply of homes for sale at an all-time low, making it …
25th November 2020
House price boom should prove short-lived House price growth is quickly entering boom territory, with both Case-Shiller and FHFA reporting a surge in annual gains in September. At 9.1% y/y, the rise on the FHFA index is the highest in almost 15 years. But …
24th November 2020
Sales surprise on the upside, pushing inventory to another record low Existing home sales surprised on the upside in October, rising to a 15-year high. However, even with mortgage rates set to stay low, we expect sales will see some retrenchment over the …
19th November 2020
A striking development in the past few months is how well housing markets in developed markets have generally been doing. We expect this to peter out next year, although in most cases house price falls will be avoided. In the meantime, the strength of …
Virus-driven behaviour changes that support a faster online transition will boost industrial demand over the coming years. But we don’t believe the view that higher online spending will cause rents to detach permanently from the underlying strength of the …
Rising rental vacancy rates in large cities have not been accompanied by a surge in first-time buyers (FTBs). Indeed, 2020 saw the lowest share of FTBs since 1987. That implies many of those rental households who left large cities are either renting in …
18th November 2020
Surge in homebuilder confidence points to further rise in starts Single-family starts had another strong month in October, and are now up 75% compared to their trough in April. Record low inventory is supporting homebuilder confidence, and that points to …
The 30-year mortgage rate fell below 3% last week, but we doubt it will stay there for long. A rise in 10-year Treasury yields means mortgage rates will soon tick-up. That will weigh on housing demand, which had already been losing steam. Indeed, mortgage …
12th November 2020
Recovery in mortgage applications likely a false dawn Mortgage applications recovered some ground in October, as an upturn in refinancing offset a fall in home purchase demand. But the underlying trend is broadly flat since June and we don’t expect any …
4th November 2020
Wealthy buyers seeking homes during the pandemic have driven the share of existing homes sold for over $500,000 to a record high. A lack of inventory has prevented a similar rise in the new home sector, and that may persuade builders to refocus on …
2nd November 2020
Despite issues with sampling due to COVID-19, the third quarter HVS survey did provide some interesting information on the impact of the virus. A surge in median asking rents was caused by a jump in the share of expensive multifamily units on the market, …
28th October 2020
House price growth gathers steam on back of strong demand House prices had another strong month in August, with annual growth on the FHFA measure surging to 8.1%, a 14-year high. Record low mortgage rates have given a boost to housing demand, and record …
27th October 2020
New home sales drop back for first time since April New home sales dropped back in September, the first contraction since the height of the pandemic in April. Pent-up demand from the spring is now dissipating and tight inventory, particularly of completed …
26th October 2020
Despite a surge in mortgage applications, holdings of residential loans by commercial banks declined in August and September. We suspect that divergence is due to a rise in mortgage repayments, which would be in line with the jump in the saving rate. In …
22nd October 2020
Current pace of sales growth cannot be sustained Existing home sales had another strong month in September, and month-on-month growth has now averaged 14% since June. But with housing demand easing back, and inventory getting ever tighter, that pace of …
Single-family starts see further gains on back of strong new home demand Single-family starts and building permits had another strong month in September, as builders increased production on the back of buoyant demand and dwindling inventory. A moderation …
20th October 2020
Overview – Record low mortgage rates, pent-up demand from the spring and some movement out of cities have helped drive home sales to 13-year highs. But with inventory falling to record lows, mortgage lending standards tightening and unemployment elevated, …
16th October 2020
Record low mortgage rates have continued to support home sales, with the pending homes sales index reaching its highest level since the series began in 2001. (See Chart 1.) But a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield implies mortgage rates will now tick-up. …
9th October 2020
Retail has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis and lasting changes to online spending will bring further pain. While our estimates suggest that the impact is likely to be less severe than structural change in offices, the rental outlook is expected to …
8th October 2020
Mortgage rates fall again, but will soon bottom out Mortgage applications were once again stable in September, with a small fall in refinancing applications offset by a small rise in home purchase demand. Mortgage rates hit another record low by the end …
7th October 2020
Surging demand has led to a sharp drop in the number of new homes for sale, with the fall driven by a collapse in the inventory of completed homes. A jump in single-family building permits will provide some support to overall new home supply but, given …
30th September 2020
House prices rise as inventory hits record lows House price growth saw a further acceleration in July, as solid housing demand and low inventory put upward pressure on home values. With mortgage rates set to stay close to record lows, and no improvement …
29th September 2020
Supply of new homes falls to 57-year low Another strong rise in new home sales in August, to a 14-year high, pushed the months’ supply of homes to its lowest since records began in 1963. With housing starts constrained by surging lumber prices and lot …
24th September 2020
House price growth accelerates as demand booms House price growth saw another strong gain in July, as surging demand and record low inventory put upward pressure on values. But with demand set to ease over the coming months, and mortgage lending standards …
23rd September 2020
Growth in existing home sales moderates Existing home sales rose again in August, although at a more modest pace compared to June and July. With pent-up demand from the spring having now worked itself through, unemployment elevated and inventory at record …
22nd September 2020
Single-family starts return to pre-COVID levels on back of strong demand At 1.021m annualised, single-family starts have now fully reversed their COVID-related drop. And, with building permits hitting a 13-year high in August and homebuilder confidence at …
17th September 2020
The sharp drop in the rental absorption rate would, other things equal, be expected to weigh on multifamily housing starts. However, the recent shift away from cities will provide an opportunity for developers to focus more heavily on the for-sale market, …
16th September 2020
Applications for home purchase have levelled off, but at a level 25% higher than a year ago. That is now feeding through to home sales, with the pending home sales index rising to a 15-year high in July. However, a lack of inventory will soon put a brake …
11th September 2020
Even after the immediate threat of COVID has receded, we expect as many as 50% of office-based employees will work from home at least once a week. But the move away from cities and toward the suburbs should prove short-lived. Most of those leaving cities …
9th September 2020
In contrast to the surge in mortgage forbearance following the CARES Act, we doubt the recently announced eviction ban will trigger a jump in rental arrears. For those who can afford it, deciding not to pay the rent still comes with significant costs. …
4th September 2020
Mortgage demand stable as interest rates fall to record low Following a surge in May, mortgage applications for home purchase have since stabilised at a level around 25% higher than last year. Pent-up demand, record low mortgage rates and some evidence of …
2nd September 2020
Given interest rates are already very low, we doubt any additional stimulus introduced because of the change to the inflation target will provide a significant boost to the economy or house prices. Indeed, the past relationship between interest rates and …
27th August 2020
Housing market recovery gathers pace New home sales surged to a 13½-year high in July, as record low mortgage rates, pent-up demand from the spring and a shortage of existing homes for sale all boosted activity. Tight markets and rising demand have also …
25th August 2020
Existing home sales surge to 13½-year high Existing home sales had another strong month in July, surging to a 13½-year high. Pent-up demand from the spring, record low mortgage rates and some impact from households moving to the suburbs has helped drive …
21st August 2020
The foreclosure process ground to a halt in the second quarter, as lenders were banned from foreclosing on federally-backed mortgages and the court system largely closed. While we expect most of those who applied for forbearance due to COVID-related …
20th August 2020
Homebuilder confidence hits record high and starts surge Housing starts surged for the second consecutive month in July, and single-family starts are now only 10% below their pre-COVID level. Flight to the suburbs may explain some of the increase in …
18th August 2020
The median credit score on mortgages originated in the second quarter surged to a 21-year high, as lenders tightened standards in response to uncertainty over the labour market. While unemployment is now falling back, we expect it will remain above 5% to …
13th August 2020
Mortgage rates have continued to fall, hitting a record low 3.14% at the end of July. Alongside the reopening of parts of the economy, and pent-up demand from the spring, that has helped home sales bounce back strongly from their COVID-related dip. …
12th August 2020
We think that the enforced remote-working experiment of recent months will cause a dramatic demand shift in the office sector, with as many as 50% of office-based employees working from home at least once a week. Even with a heroic supply response through …
6th August 2020
Home purchase demand eases back despite record low mortgage rates Mortgage applications for home purchase trended down over July, even as the 30-year mortgage rate fell to a record low 3.14%. The working through of pent-up demand from the spring, record …
5th August 2020
The unprecedented surge in household formation and the homeownership rate in the second quarter is not a sign that Americans are fleeing rental apartments in the city to buy homes in the suburbs. Rather, issues with data collection due to the coronavirus …
29th July 2020
House price growth slowdown begins House prices rose by just 0.1% m/m in May on the Case-Shiller index, which together with a slowdown on the FHFA index indicates that the collapse in sales caused by the coronavirus is now weighing on prices. The rapid …
28th July 2020
New home sales reverse all their COVID-related drop New home sales have now more than reversed the drop seen earlier in the year, reaching a 13-year high in June. The sales outlook is positive - new home buyer traffic has returned to 22-year highs, and …
24th July 2020
Overview – Record low mortgage rates have helped housing demand to recover swiftly from the shock of the coronavirus, with mortgage applications for home purchase recently hitting a 10-year high. Home sales have also jumped back, but a second wave of …
23rd July 2020
Home sales bounce back, but recovery will be slower from here The reopening of the economy and pent-up demand from the spring helped existing home sales bounce back in June. However, with a second wave of infections leading to renewed shutdowns and …
22nd July 2020
