Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Surveys of house price expectations, although weakening, are yet to signal the renewed falls that we are forecasting for the second half of this year. However, their record in anticipating price movements is mixed, with consumers’ expectations in …
16th June 2010
The rise in the RICS past prices balance is at odds with other evidence that the upswing in prices has lost momentum, or even begun to go into reverse. But the forward-looking balances in today's survey suggest that the rise will be short-lived. … RICS …
15th June 2010
Today brought fresh evidence that not only does the past year’s house price bounce appear to have run its course but it now seems to be moving into reverse. Of course, all that could yet change. But, with the June 22nd Budget only likely to put a further …
11th June 2010
In view of the looming June Budget, the economic recovery remains worryingly dependent on the inventory cycle and government spending. The prospect of tighter fiscal policy and job losses in the public and private sectors implies that economic growth will …
7th June 2010
The contradictory messages offered by the Halifax and Nationwide house price data make it almost impossible to draw clear conclusions about the health of the market. But, at the very least, May’s drop in the Halifax index highlights the fragility of the …
4th June 2010
It is still early days, but our prediction last month that April would be the high water mark for house price inflation appears to have been borne out. For now, house prices continue to rise, but easing supply shortages, overvaluation and, of course, the …
3rd June 2010
The latest rise in mortgage approvals for house purchase cannot disguise the bigger picture of a lending market that is depressed. The subdued picture for net lending might also mean that anyone hoping for a further easing in mortgage credit conditions …
2nd June 2010
On the face of it, the supply shortages which characterised the owner occupier market last year are in danger of becoming a feature of the private rental market. While this could provide a boost for rents, we think the weakness of the wider economy will …
26th May 2010
April’s soft mortgage lending data add weight to the idea that last year’s upturn in approvals overstated the underlying health of the housing market. Moreover, since the looming fiscal austerity measures will keep a lid on mortgage demand while the …
Despite a 73% rise in private housing starts over the past year, the bigger picture is that housebuilding activity in England remains extremely subdued and that is unlikely to change rapidly. Indeed, there are several reasons to believe that a return to …
20th May 2010
It is too soon to be sure whether the recent softness in some London housing market indicators are simply noise in an otherwise healthy trend or whether they are a sign that a turning point is at hand. However, the fact that affordability and valuation …
19th May 2010
The modest improvement in the labour market seen in the final months of last year appears to have helped reduce further the number of mortgage possessions and cases of mortgage arrears. As yet, there are few signs that the renewed weakness in labour …
13th May 2010
Recent press reports have suggested that lenders are increasingly considering targeting a return to higher margin BTL lending. Today’s data suggest that such considerations have yet to deliver any tangible benefits to aspiring investors on the ground. … …
The softer tone evident in most of the RICS housing market balances since the turn of the year was partially reversed in April. It will be at least another month or two, however, before we know whether the market has finally shaken off its New Year …
11th May 2010
News that the Halifax house price index suffered a marginal fall in April is a reminder that the recovery in house prices has not had a firm economic foundation. With the acute supply shortages that characterised the market last year now easing, and the …
7th May 2010
It is possible that the renewed mood of caution in the housing market might lift once the election has passed. Yet the result will not materially affect the short-term economic growth outlook. And with the impending fiscal squeeze set to dent household …
6th May 2010
March’s mortgage approval figures from the Bank of England confirm that demand is struggling to regain the ground lost at the start of the year. We suspect that the huge gap between house prices and earnings, the still-tight credit conditions and a weak …
4th May 2010
The drop in the Land Registry house price index in March is likely to be reversed in April. Even so, with the economy seeming to have lost a little momentum in the first quarter, the labour market also taking a turn for the worse and household incomes set …
30th April 2010
29th April 2010
The weakness of mortgage lending in March seems increasingly hard to explain by one-off or temporary factors. Yet it does fit with evidence that the labour market has begun to weaken again and that the housing market remains overvalued. Given the weak …
27th April 2010
With consumers so far fighting off any preelection nerves, the consumer recovery could gather further momentum in the next month or two. But the second half of the year should look rather different to the first as the recent sweet spot for consumers …
26th April 2010
At a simple level, our view that last year’s house price recovery will be reversed, while gains in commercial property capital values will be sustained seems at odds with the strong historical correlation between the two property sectors. However, …
23rd April 2010
A number of temporary factors such as the snow, the end of last year’s stamp duty holiday and now the election, have all been blamed for the drop in housing market activity in the early part of the year. Yet today’s labour market data serve as a useful …
21st April 2010
The risks that house price falls would take longer to materialise than we had been expecting, and which we flagged in the previous Analyst, have been borne out. We have therefore cut our forecast for house price falls in 2010 from 10% to 5%. … The house …
15th April 2010
The message from March’s RICS survey is that the housing market recovery has stalled. The forward-looking balances, in particular, did nothing to alter our view that 2009’s rise in house prices will ultimately prove to have been a false dawn. … RICS …
13th April 2010
Net migration has been a major contributor to the growth of the private rented sector in recent years but, unless it drops considerably further, the recession-driven drop in migration is unlikely to push residential rents down further this year. However, …
9th April 2010
8th April 2010
Hopes for a strong recovery in the UK economy rest on a decent boost to the external sector from the drop in the pound. But it is looking less and less likely that the exporting sector will manage to offset the continued weakness in the domestic economy. …
7th April 2010
The fact that activity measures showed little, if any, recovery last month suggests that the weather may have been a less significant distortion to January’s data than was initially assumed. Although the end of the previous stamp duty holiday could still …
31st March 2010
February’s surprise drop in the Nationwide house price index was not repeated, suggesting that the recovery in house prices still has some life. However, with mortgage lending remaining subdued in February, the labour market still weakening and …
30th March 2010
29th March 2010
With January’s slump in housing market activity showing little sign of being reversed and both the labour market and affordability deteriorating, February’s fall in the Land Registry house price index is unlikely to be the last this year. … Land Registry …
26th March 2010
This was a clever budget which made the most of very difficult circumstances. The Chancellor largely avoided the temptation to bribe the voters with their own money. There was a package of tax cuts and spending increases amounting to about £2.8bn in …
24th March 2010
While there can be little doubt that they will be popular among aspiring first-time buyers, it is fairly clear that the Chancellor’s stamp duty measures do nothing to resolve the real problems facing the housing market – overvaluation, a lack of mortgage …
We believe that a large pool of rented property will be put up for sale this year. While that might initially result in higher sales, we doubt that the mortgage market will allow demand to keep pace with this rise in supply, meaning that the level of …
Mortgage lending remained in the doldrums in February. While a strong rebound in March cannot be ruled out, the data raise further question marks about whether January’s dip reflected one-off factors, or was further evidence of a lacklustre recovery in …
23rd March 2010
There was good news and bad news in the latest FSA lending data. On a positive note, arrears and possessions both fell in 2009Q4. But the data on mortgage lending criteria offered little encouragement to would-be buyers or those seeking to remortgage. … …
16th March 2010
According to the RICS, downwards pressure on rents is easing thanks to a reduced level of competition for lettings. But, unlike respondents to this survey, we are sceptical that the fall in supply will result in a strong boost to rents this year. … RICS …
The main success of the Bank of England’s policy of quantitative easing (QE) has been the recent rise in asset prices. However, QE appears to have played only an indirect role in the housing market rebound, suggesting that an extension of the policy won’t …
11th March 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Housing Market Survey (Feb.) …
9th March 2010
We are not convinced that the recent recovery is evidence that long-term supply shortages are underpinning UK house prices. Admittedly, Sweden and Australia also suffer supply shortages and house prices there are rising too. Yet other factors can also …
8th March 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Prices (Feb.) …
4th March 2010
It is too soon to draw conclusions from the slump in most measures of housing market activity. But with the economic data still soft and each rise in house prices denting affordability, we think that activity will remain subdued and that house prices will …
3rd March 2010
House prices rose in July, reversing some of the recent falls. But this does not alter our view that prices are set for a period of considerable weakness in the remainder of this year and into 2011. … Mortgage Lending …
1st March 2010
26th February 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … BBA Mortgage Lending (Jan.) …
23rd February 2010
Cash buyers have been a key support to housing demand over the past year. But they may have been a less important driver of the recovery in sales than is sometimes suggested. Moreover, if January’s weak mortgage lending data are not just a blip, but a …
18th February 2010
The fact that lenders face a prospective funding gap equivalent to a quarter of the outstanding stock of mortgage debt only strengthens our view that a second leg to the housing market correction lies ahead. Not only does it point to higher mortgage …
15th February 2010
11th February 2010
