Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Affordable house-building faces significant headwinds. As well as problems of economic viability, the fiscal squeeze is already weighing on starts in the affordable housing sector. These challenges are likely to intensify for the foreseeable future. …
6th October 2010
The Bank of England’s latest survey suggested that while credit conditions are continuing to thaw, the process remains very gradual. We do not expect lending growth to pick up pace any time soon. … Credit Conditions Survey …
30th September 2010
House prices were more or less stable in September. Although it may appear that prices are stagnating at the moment, the renewed falls in mortgage market activity suggest that further declines in prices are on their way. … Nationwide House Prices …
The latest mortgage lending statistics from the Bank of England show that mortgage market activity weakened once again in August. Declining buyer demand means that approvals could drop even further from here. … Mortgage Lending …
29th September 2010
Coming after several recent reports of renewed falls in house prices, the latest rise in the Land Registry Repeat Sales Index only serves to highlight the uncertainty around the housing market at the moment. … Land Registry Repeat Sales Index …
28th September 2010
The August lending data from the BBA was always likely to add to the picture of a subdued mortgage market. But the significant fall in mortgage approvals for house purchase only adds to the evidence that last years’ housing market recovery is unwinding. … …
23rd September 2010
Recent press comment that lenders are profiteering from the large spreads between mortgage interest rates and Bank Rate may be further evidence of the low esteem in which the financial services sector is now held. But it misses two key points. First, …
22nd September 2010
The recent slump in first-time buyers’ share of the mortgage market is a worrying sign of fresh weakness in the first rung of the housing market. What’s more, high unemployment among the under- 35s means that it will take more than an improvement in …
16th September 2010
FSA lending data released late this morning will do little to lift the cloud hanging over the housing market. While arrears and possessions improved again, there were some signs that credit conditions tightened further. … FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics …
14th September 2010
Much of the recent housing market data has offered conflicting signals. But the latest RICS housing market survey presents an unambiguously weak picture of both housing market activity and house prices. … RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices …
The latest rise in the Halifax measure of house prices does little to settle the debate about the house price outlook. But the fact that house prices continue to fall on a quarterly basis seems consistent with our forecast of considerable weakness in …
8th September 2010
Recent press reports that some major mortgage lenders are further restricting the availability of interest-only mortgages are a fresh sign that credit conditions are tightening. … What is the interest-only mortgage clampdown telling …
7th September 2010
GDP growth in the second quarter was revised up to a healthy-looking 1.2%q/q. But closer inspection reveals the recovery to be worryingly dependent on restocking. Once the process of inventory building is complete, the strong pace of growth will not be …
2nd September 2010
October’s rise in the Halifax house price index was widely expected, given the size of the previous month’s drop. Moreover, although far stronger than consensus estimates for a 0.6% rise, the underlying trend still points to accelerating house price …
With the continued rationing of credit keeping many would-be buyers in rented accommodation and the supply of rental properties declining as accidental landlords sell up, at first glance the outlook seems positive for rents. But weak economic prospects …
31st August 2010
The Bank of England’s mortgage lending statistics for July showed a marginal rise in both the value and volume of mortgages approved. However, the bigger picture is still of subdued activity in the housing market. There is little chance of a marked …
The Land Registry house price index highlights a clear North/South divide. But while London and the South have consistently outperformed over the past year, we doubt that house prices in these regions will be immune to the impact of tighter fiscal policy …
27th August 2010
The latest mortgage lending snapshot from the BBA suggests that growing pressure on household finances, rising fears about job security and still-tight lending criteria are depressing activity in the housing market. It is hard to see what might give a …
24th August 2010
As signs that the past year’s house price gains are going into reverse become more widespread, the number of active sellers in the housing market is likely to decline. But a fall in house price expectations and a further offsetting decline in buyer demand …
19th August 2010
Yesterday’s fall in asking prices reported by Rightmove was noticeably stronger than the traditional dip normally observed in August. Admittedly, despite their timely nature the data’s track record as a lead indicator of the other major house price …
17th August 2010
The recovery in buy-to-let (BTL) lending in the second quarter was noticeably stronger than in the wider mortgage market. But it will be a long time before BTL lending regains the market share it enjoyed in late 2007, if ever. … CML Buy-To-Let Lending …
12th August 2010
Mortgage arrears and possessions continued to improve in the second quarter of the year. But with tax increases and public sector spending cuts set to intensify the pressure on household incomes and trigger fresh rises in unemployment, it is too early to …
The dip in buyer enquiries since the turn of the year has begun to drag house prices lower. We expect the restricted level of mortgage credit, together with rising unemployment and the squeeze on household incomes to mean that house prices end the year …
10th August 2010
A second round of falls in house prices would not be without precedent. There are at least eight examples of double-dips in real house prices in the international data from the past 40 years. But while, on average, the second leg of those corrections …
5th August 2010
House prices rose in July, reversing some of the recent falls. But this does not alter our view that prices are set for a period of considerable weakness in the remainder of this year and into 2011. … Halifax House Prices …
4th August 2010
The fiscal contraction is now well and truly underway. However, we doubt that the conditions are in place for the economy to take such a sharp squeeze in its stride. … Can the UK survive the squeeze? (Q3 …
3rd August 2010
The sheer scale of the fiscal squeeze means that consumer spending will struggle to rise in the next few years. … Spending will struggle to grow during fiscal squeeze (Q3 …
2nd August 2010
We believe that the downturn in the data in recent months marks the start of a new, weaker trend for the housing market. With a fresh contraction in lending likely in the coming months and a weak outlook for demand, recent house price falls are likely to …
The construction industry contributed 0.4 percentage points to the 1.1%q/q growth in GDP in the second quarter of 2010. What’s more, house-building appears to have contributed strongly to the growth in construction, suggesting that housing starts will …
30th July 2010
The renewed falls in mortgage market activity are weighing on house prices. With lending unlikely to pick up significantly this year, due to constraints on both supply and demand, recent falls in house prices are unlikely to prove short-lived. … Mortgage …
29th July 2010
Despite some upward revisions to the last few months of data and a marginal further rise in June, today’s Land Registry index adds to the emerging evidence that house prices may have reached a turning point. … Land Registry Repeat Sales Index …
28th July 2010
June’s renewed decline in mortgage approvals highlights the lacklustre state of the mortgage market. … BBA Mortgage Lending (Jun.) …
23rd July 2010
On one measure at least, the amount of unsold stock on surveyors’ books is consistent with falling house prices. With sellers now seemingly outnumbering buyers, we expect that looser market conditions will mean falling prices in the remainder of 2010. … …
20th July 2010
Over the next 20 years, house price growth in the North West is likely to match the UK average closely. If anything, the North West may slightly outpace the UK. However, there will be considerable sub-regional differences. Manchester, and to a lesser …
19th July 2010
Since the previous Analyst our forecasts for housing transactions have been shaved, reflecting the weaker-than-expected data in recent months. However, our house price forecasts appear to be on track. We expect prices to end this year 5% lower and to drop …
14th July 2010
Market conditions are loosening, as the supply of properties for sale continues to increase and buyer numbers stall. Consistent with our forecast for a double-dip, surveyors now expect house prices to fall in the next three months. … RICS Housing Survey & …
13th July 2010
At the time of the 2015 election, we expect commercial property prices to be more or less unchanged from their current levels. Yet despite the low interest rate environment, the outlook for residential property is far weaker. We think that we are now in …
12th July 2010
The housing market data continued to send mixed messages last month. Activity measures remained subdued but did not typically weaken any further. House prices rose on some indices and fell on others. But with economic growth set to lose some momentum as …
2nd July 2010
The latest Credit Conditions Survey suggested that the supply of credit for commercial property is likely to remain restricted, but for residential borrowers it is likely to contract again. In light of this, a cautious view on the prospects for both house …
1st July 2010
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s house price forecasts seem to imply a structural shift in the sustainable house price to earnings ratio and a return to peak of the market mortgage servicing costs. We would not rule out some rise in the equilibrium …
30th June 2010
House prices rose in July, reversing some of the recent falls. But this does not alter our view that prices are set for a period of considerable weakness in the remainder of this year and into 2011. … Nationwide House Prices …
The latest mortgage lending numbers from the Bank of England were little changed from last month, indicating a lending market that remains very subdued. … Mortgage Lending …
29th June 2010
The latest Land Registry Repeat Sales index brought further evidence that the increase in supply and the weakening of demand seen over the past few months is beginning to undermine house prices. Tight fiscal policy and the resulting pressures on household …
28th June 2010
The Financial Stability Report (FSR) is not designed to lay out the Bank of England’s expectations for the financial system, economy or property markets. But there was enough in today’s report to suggest that the Bank remains very concerned about the …
25th June 2010
Mortgage lending figures from the BBA ticked up in May, but are still indicative of a weak mortgage market. The numbers suggest that the latest falls in consumer confidence and the considerable uncertainty over the outlook for wholesale mortgage financing …
23rd June 2010
This was a Budget with two faces. The total discretionary tightening will build up to 8% of GDP per annum by 2015-16, larger than Canada’s in the 1990s, but smaller than Sweden’s and Finland’s. … Emergency Budget 2010: Tough but …
22nd June 2010
Fears that a rise in capital gains tax would rapidly destabilise the fragile house price recovery appear to have been overdone. But the scale of the fiscal squeeze announced by the Chancellor today was, if anything, tougher than had been anticipated. And …
The latest FSA lending data continue the trend of the previous two quarters with arrears and possessions improving but mortgage lending remaining very tight. … FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics …
Claims that households have begun to step up the rate at which they are paying back their mortgages do not look well founded. Rather, over the past year or so, repayments of mortgage principal have been far lower than we would have expected given the cuts …
18th June 2010
