Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
The latest data from the Land Registry are further evidence of the anaemic state of the housing market. Rising unemployment and tight credit conditions are likely to mean that transaction levels remain low and house prices continue to fall. … Land …
31st January 2011
Theoretically at least, the OECD’s recent proposal to replace stamp duty with an annual tax on property could improve labour market mobility and discourage excessive consumption of housing. But, regardless of its theoretical merits, we find it hard to …
28th January 2011
Low interest rates alone will not prevent the recent falls in house prices from being extended, perhaps significantly this year. Rather, we expect that the benefits of low interest rates will be overwhelmed by rising unemployment, weak house price …
The continued decline in mortgage activity in December capped off a weak year for lending to the housing market. The prospect of sluggish economic growth and subdued demand means that 2011 is unlikely to see a significant improvement. … BBA Mortgage …
26th January 2011
If we are right that unemployment will rise markedly over the next two years, the rates of arrears and possessions will increase. However, three features of the UK’s mortgage market should keep the rates of both arrears and possessions below the highs …
19th January 2011
Activity and house prices both softened in December. Although the drop in sales instructions was particularly striking, it does not necessarily follow that supply shortages will underpin house prices this year. … RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices …
18th January 2011
If our unemployment forecasts are correct, the rise in the number of tenants who are struggling to meet their rents may be the start of a growing trend. At the very least these figures support our view that the recent bounce in rents may now be on its …
12th January 2011
We have raised our forecast of GDP growth for 2011 from 1% to 1.5%, but overall the economy will lose momentum and the labour market will weaken. Thus, the implications for the housing market are limited. We have not changed our view that recent house …
11th January 2011
According to the Halifax, house prices recorded a modest decline in the year to December 2010. With the pressures on house prices still building, we anticipate that prices will fall considerably further into the red this year. … Halifax House Prices …
10th January 2011
Today’s Credit Conditions Survey showed that in both the housing and commercial property markets lenders have continued slowly to improve the volume of credit that is available, if not its terms. However, demand for finance appears to be faltering, …
6th January 2011
There have been tentative signs that prospective vendors are being deterred from bringing their properties to the market by renewed price falls. But even if supply contracts further, a combination of rising unemployment, tight credit conditions and weak …
5th January 2011
The Bank of England’s measure of mortgage approvals for house purchase rose for first time in seven months in November. However, mortgage lending remains incredibly low by historical standards. This will continue to weigh on house prices in 2011. … …
4th January 2011
The decline in mortgage market activity continued in November. Approvals for house purchase dropped to their lowest level for twenty months. With lenders’ funding issues set to persist, if not intensify, there is little prospect of a mortgage market …
23rd December 2010
We doubt that the economic recovery is on the secure footing required for it to maintain its recent pace. We expect GDP growth of just 1.5% in both 2011 and 2012. But at least the UK has turned a corner. … A bumpy road to …
22nd December 2010
Claims that the FSA’s responsible lending proposals will do lasting damage to the size and structure of the mortgage market assume that the historically high gap between house prices and incomes is here to stay. These claims seem overstated to us. … The …
Growing fears about the inflation outlook do not improve the case for buying residential property at the present time. Given how high real house prices currently are, we think that it would be unwise to count on inflation-beating house price growth in …
16th December 2010
Today’s FSA lending data confirm that mortgage lending criteria remained very tight in the third quarter. And while arrears and possessions improved as expected, the full impact of public sector job losses has yet to be felt. … FSA Mortgage Lending …
14th December 2010
Uncertainty stemming from the impact of the public sector spending cuts on the labour market, combined with the continued restrictions on mortgage supply, is taking its toll on the housing market. Two surveys reported further house price falls this …
The increased share of first-time buyers on repayment mortgages should be welcomed. The high level of interest-only lending during the boom years contributed to the unsustainable gap that opened up between house prices and earnings. It also left a vast …
10th December 2010
The underlying downward trend in house prices on the Halifax measure accelerated in November. With the debate as to whether house prices are falling settled, the issue now is how severe future falls will be. … Halifax House Prices …
9th December 2010
Most measures of housing market activity worsened last month. Given that economic growth is likely to be sluggish and a fresh rise in unemployment is on the cards, we do not expect activity levels to improve significantly next year. That, combined with …
6th December 2010
Strong tenant demand and a shortage of property for rent combined to push residential rents up for the third consecutive quarter. Yet the lack of buyer demand, growing expectations for further house price falls and the lack of credit all suggest that …
1st December 2010
The underlying downward trend in house prices on the Halifax measure accelerated in November. With the debate as to whether house prices are falling settled, the issue now is how severe future falls will be. … Nationwide House Prices …
The sixth consecutive monthly fall in mortgage approvals for house purchase underlines the message that the mortgage market is severely depressed. We expect it to remain that way throughout 2011. … Mortgage Lending …
29th November 2010
The second consecutive monthly drop in the Land Registry measure of house prices is further evidence that the devaluation is becoming more embedded. The fact that house prices are still overvalued across a range of measures, combined with the poor outlook …
26th November 2010
Over the next three to five years, we think that the most likely scenario is that the private rented sector (PRS) continues to expand. By 2015, it is plausible that 16% or even 17% of households will live in privately rented accommodation, up from 14% at …
24th November 2010
This morning’s marginal rise in the total number of mortgages approved in October is not particularly encouraging, given that approvals for house purchase are still falling. With both lenders and borrowers still facing significant challenges, a recovery …
23rd November 2010
The fall in dwelling starts in Q3 may well be a sign that the recovery in house-building has run out of steam. If so, it raises questions about the durability of the wider economic recovery and, on balance, is another reason to be concerned about the …
18th November 2010
Detached house prices will prove to be more resilient than other types of residential property in the next two to three years. Higher earners, who disproportionately demand this most expensive type of residential property, will be less affected by tight …
17th November 2010
The second fall in the government’s measure of house prices in almost a year and a half suggests that the recent weakness picked up by the more timely indices is finally showing through in house prices at the completion stage. … CLG House Prices …
16th November 2010
Lending to the buy-to-let sector noticeably outperformed the wider market in the third quarter. But there is reason to expect lending to the sector to weaken soon. … CML Buy-To-Let Lending …
11th November 2010
The continued fall in the numbers of arrears and possessions in the third quarter is encouraging. But figures showing an increase in possession orders being sought and awarded may mean that the improving trend will soon come to an end. … Mortgage Arrears …
The latest RICS housing market survey provides further evidence, if any were needed, that the house price outlook is weak. Most of the activity indicators deteriorated further in October and surveyors’ house price expectations remained firmly in negative …
9th November 2010
A new mortgage market survey from the charted surveyors e.surv suggests that mortgage lending volumes and average loan-to-value ratios fell further in October. While the survey has yet to be tested against hard data from the BBA or Bank of England, …
5th November 2010
The housing market data became increasingly negative last month. The stock of unsold properties on the market expanded once again and mortgage market activity remains extremely depressed. Most of the house price indices are pointing to a weakening house …
4th November 2010
October’s rise in the Halifax house price index was widely expected, given the size of the previous month’s drop. Moreover, although far stronger than consensus estimates for a 0.6% rise, the underlying trend still points to accelerating house price …
We continue to think that the biggest fiscal squeeze in decades will bring the consumer recovery to a sharp halt. … Consumer spending heading for a double dip (Q4 …
1st November 2010
The latest small fall in mortgage approvals reinforces the picture of a severely depressed lending market. We do not expect mortgage lending to recover significantly next year. … Mortgage Lending …
29th October 2010
The latest housing market activity measures look very weak. For now, however, this does not seem to have passed through to sustained falls in house prices. But with the fiscal consolidation set to put considerable strain on the labour market and economic …
28th October 2010
The Nationwide house price index fell for the third time in four months in October. As such, the data suggest that the key question facing the market is no longer “Will house prices fall?” but rather ”How far will prices fall?” … Nationwide House Prices …
The most recent lending data from the BBA showed that the contraction in mortgage lending continued in September. With confidence in the outlook for the housing market still very weak, among lenders as well as consumers, we expect the mortgage drought to …
25th October 2010
Intuitively, one might expect the high population density and apparent structural undersupply of housing in the UK to mean that we have historically spent a higher proportion of our earnings on mortgages than other major economies. In fact our analysis …
21st October 2010
Today’s Spending Review was never going to be good for the housing sector. The target for 150,000 new affordable homes to be built over the next four years represents a cut of almost 30% in affordable housebuilding from current levels, which must be bad …
20th October 2010
The combination of a fading economic recovery, renewed rises in unemployment and a continued shortage of mortgage credit all suggest that there is little prospect of a meaningful recovery in housing market activity levels in the next year or so. The …
18th October 2010
While mortgage credit conditions are improving for the most credit-worthy borrowers, secured lending criteria remain exceptionally tight for the broader market. … What is happening to mortgage credit …
13th October 2010
There was some better news in September’s RICS housing market survey, but not much as rising new instructions and a lack of buyers combined to push both house prices and house price expectations lower. … RICS Housing Survey & CLG House Prices …
12th October 2010
Companies may weather the coming fiscal storm rather better than households and the public sector. But they certainly won’t survive entirely unscathed. … How will companies weather the fiscal storm? (Q4 …
11th October 2010
The hefty drop in the Halifax measure of house prices adds weight to the view that house price weakness is far from over. To our minds, weak housing market activity indicators mean that further falls in house prices are likely. … Halifax House Prices …
7th October 2010
