Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
The low starting point for interest rates, the high share of mortgages at variable rates of interest and the record level of mortgage debt relative to earnings mean that borrowers are more exposed than ever before to a sustained round of monetary policy …
23rd May 2011
Housebuilding activity bounced back strongly in the first quarter, albeit from an extremely low base. However, we doubt that the recovery can maintain this momentum. Indeed, on balance, we believe that any gains in housebuilding activity are unlikely to …
20th May 2011
We have been asked why the house price-to-rents ratio compiled using a National Accounts measure of rents indicates that housing is close to fair value, while the Retail Prices Index measure suggests that housing is overvalued. Although neither measure is …
16th May 2011
Against a backdrop of subdued wage growth and a weakening labour market, the rise in mortgage possession cases seen in the first quarter of the year is unlikely to be the last. … Mortgage Arrears and Possessions …
12th May 2011
The share of buy-to-let in the wider mortgage market continued to rise in the first three months of the year. But that has more to do with the weakness of activity among owner occupiers than burgeoning demand among landlords. … CML Buy-To-Let Lending …
The latest RICS housing market survey provides further evidence, if any were needed, that the house price outlook is weak. Most of the activity indicators deteriorated further in October and surveyors’ house price expectations remained firmly in negative …
10th May 2011
After stabilising in the past few months, the main house price indices again appear to be on their way back down. Given the weak activity data and the overvaluation in the market, this should come as little surprise. … Halifax House Prices …
9th May 2011
Last month’s housing market news-flow may have been slightly more positive than of late, but it didn’t change the underlying picture of a market that remains severely depressed. And if unemployment rises by as much as we expect this year, a further …
5th May 2011
We continue to expect falling real incomes to prompt consumer spending to drop this year. In fact, with inflation possibly heading to 5% and pay growth showing few signs of following, we recently revised our forecast for the fall in spending this year …
The small gain in house prices in January is unlikely to signal an end to the weakening trend in house prices. Indeed, if our economic forecasts are correct, the downward pressures on house prices are only set to build through 2011. … Land Registry Repeat …
4th May 2011
The fact that mortgage lending continues to run at incredibly low levels is weighing on house prices. But while prices appear to be slipping only slowly for now, job losses from the fiscal consolidation will see larger falls come through later this year. …
The mortgage market remained in the doldrums in March. Approvals for house purchase data suggest that buyers remained largely inactive in the face of the growing squeeze on household incomes, fragile consumer confidence and recent speculation about the …
27th April 2011
We often encounter the argument that low interest rates have made valuation metrics such as the house price-to-earnings ratio less useful as a guide to the sustainability or otherwise of prevailing house prices. Yet comparing house prices to equity …
21st April 2011
The required correction in real house prices will not be delivered via above-target inflation. With earnings growth failing to keep pace with inflation, in order to close the gap between house prices and earnings, nominal house prices will have to fall as …
18th April 2011
We have not changed our view that the housing market is overvalued. But recent developments in the housing and macroeconomic data point to a slower, more drawnout correction than we were previously forecasting. Thus, we have revised our forecasts. We have …
13th April 2011
Very weak activity levels continued to exert a downward pressure on house prices in March. But while prices in London reportedly rose, in other regions the evidence suggests that the housing market remains very soft. … RICS Housing Survey & CLG House …
12th April 2011
Households are already suffering the biggest squeeze on their incomes in decades. But the worst may be yet to come. … Feeling the …
6th April 2011
Last month’s marginal increase in house prices is unlikely to set a trend for the rest of this year. With lenders further restricting the availability of credit and the fiscal squeeze intensifying today, there are convincing reasons why house prices …
4th April 2011
Today’s Credit Conditions Survey suggested that there is unlikely to be a surge in lending flows in either the residential or commercial property market any time soon. Residential credit availability may loosen slightly but demand for it remains weak. …
1st April 2011
The latest rise in the Nationwide house price index adds to a number of recent data releases suggesting that prices may have stabilised in recent months. Although the extent of any further house price falls this year remains difficult to judge, the degree …
31st March 2011
Despite February’s small rise, mortgage approvals for house purchase remain below the level reported in November, before December’s surprise plunge. And looking further back, approvals are just 40% of pre-recession norms. … Mortgage Lending …
29th March 2011
28th March 2011
The Budget was a fairly cautious affair, with the Chancellor introducing a fiscally neutral package of measures and hence sticking closely to the existing austerity plans. Nonetheless, the Government’s fiscal consolidation plans continue to rest on a …
23rd March 2011
Given the degree of overvaluation in the residential market and the fragile economic backdrop, we are not convinced of the merits, or the likely success, of the Budget’s attempt to stimulate first-time buyer demand. But, given time, we are optimistic that …
After falling fairly steadily through 2010, the latest rise suggests that mortgage approvals for house purchase may be finding a floor. But the bigger picture is that, with approvals for house purchase extremely subdued, the mortgage market remains a drag …
The latest house price expectations surveys remain negative, but are not signalling an adjustment on anything like the scale seen in 2008-09. Nevertheless, their record in anticipating house price movements is mixed. The fact that wider measures of …
21st March 2011
Institutional investment in the private rented sector will not increase without a significant fall in house prices and continued strong demand from tenants. Even then, policy changes are required, but cannot be guaranteed. … Will institutional investment …
17th March 2011
The latest FSA mortgage lending statistics suggest that credit criteria tightened marginally in the fourth quarter. A lack of lending at higher loan-to-value ratios will continue to drag on activity and prices this year. … FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics …
15th March 2011
Assessed over a two year period, Bank Rate would have to rise to at least 2.75% to make it pay to fix at current mortgage interest rates. However, market expectations are for Bank Rate to rise to 2.25% in two years time, while we continue to doubt that …
14th March 2011
Recent encouraging results from two of the major house-builders are unlikely to signal that the housing market has turned a corner, not least because they are backward-looking. And we can find little in house-builders’ comments to dissuade us that the …
9th March 2011
House prices fell a little further in February and activity levels remained static at depressed levels. Consistent with that, the BRC survey brought further evidence that the squeeze on household incomes, as well as rising uncertainty over job security …
8th March 2011
4th March 2011
The latest decline in the Halifax house price index underlines that the pressures weighing on prices are still very much with us. If, as we expect, these pressures build this year – for example, if unemployment rises sharply – then significant house price …
Strong demand and another fall in supply meant that rents continued their upward trend in the three months to January. But that trend is likely to moderate during 2011 as the worsening sales environment forces more accidental landlords into the rented …
3rd March 2011
This morning’s data paints a picture of a housing market that is struggling for direction. But while the pace of any further falls is hard to judge, with mortgage demand so low, February’s modest rise in the Nationwide house price index is unlikely to be …
1st March 2011
28th February 2011
The low level of forced selling is almost certainly the main reason why house prices are currently falling more slowly that the ultra-low levels of housing market activity would suggest. However, we stand by our view that the renewed downturn in the …
24th February 2011
The marginal rise in total mortgage lending in January is not particularly encouraging, given that its makes up only one-quarter of the previous month’s fall. Weak demand and hefty refinancing requirements will keep lending subdued for the rest of this …
23rd February 2011
We do not agree with research published recently in the Daily Telegraph suggesting that mortgage affordability is at near-record levels. By looking at interest payments only, the Lombard Street Research affordability index significantly underestimates the …
17th February 2011
In principle, lenders appear to have scope to absorb any rise in Bank Rate within their already high margins. Yet lenders are now raising the cost of some mortgages in response to higher swap rates. That suggests that if Bank Rate does rise later this …
15th February 2011
The Chancellor is upping the pressure on banks to lend more. But with banks’ funding problems really coming home to roost this year, he might soon feel like he is banging his head against a brick wall. … Funding problems to keep lid on bank …
14th February 2011
Buy-to-let (BTL) lending ended 2010 on a comparatively strong note. But the data were not quite as strong as they seem at first sight. … CML Buy-To-Let Lending …
10th February 2011
While the number of arrears and possessions cases fell in the fourth quarter, the ongoing squeeze on household incomes from tax rises and public spending cuts, as well as the likelihood of a further rise in unemployment, mean that the outlook still hangs …
In the next two to three years, central London house prices will be more resilient than the wider market. But we still expect them to give up ground. It is plausible that central London house prices will fall by 10% from peak-to-trough, about half the …
9th February 2011
Unlike consumer spending, the housing market began the year on a weak footing. Indeed, the drop in completed sales and another drop in buyer enquiries means that January’s improvement in the RICS past prices balance may soon be reversed. … RICS Housing …
8th February 2011
The bounce in house prices in January is unlikely to signal the start of a rising trend. With the economic fundamentals of the housing market still very weak, the most likely scenario is for house prices to end the year significantly below where they …
4th February 2011
There was little, if any, positive news from the housing market this month. With confidence in the recovery on the wane, mortgage credit conditions tight and houses still overvalued, we find it hard to envisage an improvement in sentiment towards the …
3rd February 2011
Falling disposable incomes will soon bring the consumer recovery to an end. We still expect spending to start falling again in real terms. … A toxic mix for …
2nd February 2011
The renewed falls in mortgage market activity are weighing on house prices. With lending unlikely to pick up significantly this year, due to constraints on both supply and demand, recent falls in house prices are unlikely to prove short-lived. … …
1st February 2011
