Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
The BBA measure of mortgage approvals rose to a 15-month high in August. But given the weak outlook for growth and employment and still tight credit conditions, the chances that this will mark the start of a sustained recovery are negligible. … BBA …
24th September 2011
To judge by much of the commentary surrounding the plight of “generation rent” you might conclude that anyone who can buy should do so immediately or risk being frozen out of the market. Yet even if house prices do not fall, as we expect, over the next …
20th September 2011
Credit conditions may have held broadly stable in Q2, but while the availability of mortgage lending is this tight, the influence on housing market activity and prices is still downwards. … FSA Mortgage Lending Statistics …
14th September 2011
The latest RICS housing market survey pointed to the return of buyer caution in August, as sales dropped to their lowest level in over two years. London remained the exception to the rule, with house prices in the capital posting another rise. … RICS …
With all of the house price data relating to August released so far reporting month-on-month falls, the evidence of renewed weakness in prices is building. Admittedly, it is too early to draw firm conclusions. But with the economic recovery stalling, we …
8th September 2011
Taken at face value, the seven year decline in house prices expressed in gold might suggest that, relative to the precious metal, house prices are now ripe to recover. Yet in reality, we don’t think that the house price-to-gold ratio tells us much of any …
7th September 2011
Despite rising unemployment and an increase in inflation, buyer demand seemed to improve on some measures this month. However, against historical norms, housing market activity remains at a very subdued level and we believe that further price falls in the …
6th September 2011
August’s drop in average house prices may be little more than noise in the broadly flat trend seen in recent months. But with the recovery faltering and consumer confidence weakening it could also signal the start of a renewed period of house price falls. …
2nd September 2011
Rental demand remained healthy in the three months to July. But there was tentative evidence that high rents may be beginning to take their toll. In any event, surveyors have become slightly less optimistic about future rental value growth. … RICS …
1st September 2011
The latest rise in mortgage lending may be a response to the increasingly competitive mortgage interest rates available to some borrowers in recent months. However, demand still remains depressed against historical norms. And with the economic outlook …
31st August 2011
July’s rise in house prices is the largest month-on-month rise since early 2010. However, prices remain well below pre-crisis levels. Moreover, with the squeeze on household finances set to continue, further falls in prices lie ahead. … Land Registry …
27th August 2011
July’s rise in mortgage approvals extends to three months the period over which mortgage market activity has been on the increase. But with the economic recovery hitting the buffers, this is unlikely the mark the start of a sustained upturn in mortgage …
24th August 2011
Over the next five years, favourable margins and low rates of payment problems mean that lenders will be able and willing to meet landlords’ growing demand for buy-to-let mortgages. Hence, a lack of buy-to-let lending should not prove a constraint on the …
20th August 2011
If the recent pattern of flat house prices and modest income growth were to continue, it would take over a decade for the house-price-to-earnings (HPE) ratio to return to its long-run average. However, such a long period of stable prices would be …
16th August 2011
Buy-to-let (BTL) lending bounced back in Q2 from the first quarter’s dip. However, lending is still very subdued compared to pre-recession levels and, in view of the faltering economic recovery, the short term outlook for BTL mortgage demand is hard to …
12th August 2011
Mortgage possessions and arrears were broadly unchanged in the second quarter. However, taking the year as a whole, given the fragile economic and labour market outlook, it would be a surprise if they did not surpass last year’s totals. … Mortgage Arrears …
The RICS survey makes dispiriting reading on any level. The latest falls in house prices will further dent confidence among homeowners. However, to date, the falls have done little to help first-time buyers. The fall in sales, meanwhile, will be worrying …
10th August 2011
The latest rise in house prices in July will be seen by some as a sign that the market has found a new equilibrium. However, increasingly downbeat news regarding the wider economy and the fact that house prices are still at historically high levels, mean …
6th August 2011
Weak economic growth has taken its toll on consumer confidence and employment growth. As a result, despite low interest rates the housing market continues to struggle, so much so that even London maybe beginning to waver. … Housing market stagnates as the …
5th August 2011
With the economic recovery still struggling to regain momentum, we have recently lowered our forecasts for consumer spending and GDP growth this year. We now expect a 1.5% drop in real spending. We still expect spending to drop further next year. … …
3rd August 2011
While restricted credit availability is clearly an important factor, until the pressure on consumer incomes eases and confidence improves, regardless of what happens to credit availability, there is limited scope for a recovery in mortgage demand. … What …
We doubt that the rise in the number of mortgage approvals marks the start of a recovery in housing market activity. Hence, with the benefits of low interest rates being relentlessly eroded by the rising cost of living, the recent stability of house …
30th July 2011
Despite holding firm in June, the underlying trend in national average house prices remains negative. Moreover, June also brought tentative evidence that even in London, prices are now softening. … Land Registry Repeat Sales Index …
29th July 2011
Despite June’s rise, mortgage approvals have remained broadly flat over the past year. With the squeeze on household incomes unlikely to ease anytime soon and with few signs of looser lending conditions in the mortgage market, it is difficult to foresee a …
26th July 2011
If sustained, the latest rise in net migration should add to the upward pressures on rents over the next few years. But if the increase continues to owe as much to fewer British citizens leaving the country as it does to foreign citizens arriving, the …
23rd July 2011
The low level of forced selling over the past few years, which has been a key support for average house prices, owes much to the low level of mortgage interest rates. But given the squeeze on real incomes already seen and with further rises in food and …
22nd July 2011
The common perception is that the fiscal squeeze will prompt the traditional North-South divide to widen. However, we think it is more likely that the different regions of the UK will see a more uniform performance in the next few years than in the past. …
15th July 2011
The fact that the relationship between house prices and mortgage approvals has loosened over recent years does not mean that it has lost all its value. But in the absence of fresh, sharp falls in employment, higher interest rates or an end to lender …
Our views on valuation, as well as our expectations that the economy and housing market activity levels will remain weak, mean that we anticipate further falls in house prices. But the fact that interest rates are likely to be kept on hold may mean that …
14th July 2011
The latest RICS housing market survey provides further evidence that the outlook for activity and prices in the housing market is soft. Even if it is sustained, the slowing in the rate at which new properties are coming onto the market is unlikely to be …
13th July 2011
More properties are coming onto the market but buyers remain in relatively short supply hampered by tight credit conditions and increasingly, renewed uncertainty about the economic outlook. The difficulty of measuring house prices in such thin trading …
8th July 2011
The bounce in house prices in June is unlikely to signal that the downwards pressure on house prices has abated. With the squeeze on real pay likely to intensify until well into next year, house prices still have further to fall. … Halifax House Prices …
7th July 2011
Today’s Credit Conditions Survey suggested that the near-term outlook for commercial property lending may be slightly more positive than in the residential sector. But lending prospects in both markets still look pretty subdued. … Bank of England Credit …
1st July 2011
The Nationwide house price index was unchanged in June. But the regional indices show that the resilience of the national index over the past year or so is largely down to London where, in contrast to the rest of the country, house prices continue to …
The latest mortgage lending figures confirm that housing market activity remains very weak. That’s unlikely to change while the squeeze on real pay continues. … Mortgage Lending …
30th June 2011
May’s fall in the Land Registry’s index of house prices offset all of the previous month’s rise and confirmed the downward trend in prices on this measure. House price falls are likely to be extended into the rest of this year and next. … Land Registry …
29th June 2011
May’s rise in the BBA measure of mortgage approvals failed to make up even half of last month’s steep fall. Thus the data seem to confirm that more than just temporary factors have been weighing on activity in the housing market. … BBA Mortgage Lending …
24th June 2011
Those looking for a loosening in mortgage lending criteria will be disappointed by the latest FSA data. What’s more, the high share of mortgages at variable rates of interest may be storing up problems for the medium-term. … FSA Mortgage Lending …
22nd June 2011
Cash buyers continue to be a key support to housing market activity levels. But we remain sceptical that this demonstrates that a lack of mortgage lending, rather than stretched valuations and concerns about the sustainability of the recovery, is the only …
21st June 2011
The government’s proposal for permission-free office/industrial to residential conversions is pretty radical and, relative to what might otherwise have occurred, we estimate that the proposals could potentially lead to an extra 1m dwellings. Even if that …
17th June 2011
The drop in completed sales in May could be a hangover from the disruption caused by this year’s late Easter and Royal Wedding celebrations. But it could also simply be further evidence of the fragile and fitful nature of the economic recovery. … RICS …
15th June 2011
According to the Bank of England, advertised tracker and two-year fixed mortgage interest rates hit an all-time low in May. Yet the growing gap between advertised rates and the average rates being paid by new borrowers suggests that fewer and fewer …
14th June 2011
It was hardly surprising that surveyors reported another increase in tenant demand in the three months to April. But the rise in the number of new lettings instructions adds to our belief that rental value growth will soften later this year. … RICS …
10th June 2011
The strength of demand from overseas buyers is often presented as a reason why London is, and is likely to remain, a seller’s market. But the RICS survey suggests that their influence may be waning, meaning that it may not be too long before buyers in the …
9th June 2011
Last month’s housing market news-flow may have been slightly more positive than of late, but it didn’t change the underlying picture of a market that remains severely depressed. And if unemployment rises by as much as we expect this year, a further …
7th June 2011
The latest small rise in the Halifax house price index does little to change the bigger picture that prices on this measure are trending lower. Given the struggling economic recovery and the fact that the fiscal contraction will only get more severe from …
The latest fall in the Bank of England mortgage approvals numbers was surely driven at least in part by April’s one-off events. But underlying demand is clearly still weak. … Mortgage Lending …
1st June 2011
The small gain in house prices in January is unlikely to signal an end to the weakening trend in house prices. Indeed, if our economic forecasts are correct, the downward pressures on house prices are only set to build through 2011. … Land Registry Repeat …
31st May 2011
December’s producer prices figures revealed that cost pressures in the manufacturing sector are continuing to intensify. But this should not prevent consumer price inflation from falling back in the medium term. … Nationwide House Prices …
27th May 2011
Although April’s late Easter and Royal Wedding celebrations may have depressed mortgage market activity, today’s weak figures are consistent with the struggling economic recovery. What’s more, the chances of a meaningful improvement in mortgage lending, …
25th May 2011
