Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
The Chancellor’s ‘Help to Buy’ scheme is likely to provide some additional support to average house prices, over and above that already coming from the Funding for Lending scheme. We have amended our house price forecasts for this year and next to reflect …
21st March 2013
We doubt many first-time buyers will be celebrating ‘Help to Buy’. Most just want to see house prices fall. But by saddling them with more mortgage debt, that is an outcome this policy will help prevent. … Budget 2013 helps to keep house prices …
20th March 2013
An annual tax on residential property is in many ways a good idea. But the proposed mansion tax is not the best way to go about it. A better option would be to reform the council tax system to ensure all properties pay a tax proportional to their value. … …
19th March 2013
Interest in prime central London property may be waning, with improved sentiment in the euro-zone and poor rental yields both weighing on demand. Further large price gains are therefore unlikely, but it is hard to see where the trigger for a sharp …
15th March 2013
Further measures to boost homebuilding will reportedly form part of next week’s Budget. But past attempts have had little success. So what more could the Chancellor do, and with what effect? … Budget 2013 – Can the Chancellor kick-start …
13th March 2013
According to the FSA, gross mortgage lending declined in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago. That provides further evidence that the FLS has yet to boost mortgage lending, despite the continual fall in mortgage rates. … FSA Mortgage Lending …
12th March 2013
Housing market activity continues to improve. But prices are still falling and if anything, given record low mortgage rates, the recovery has been disappointing. … RICS Housing Market Survey (Feb. …
Positive news on the housing market in the past few months has led to some renewed optimism that the market may be turning the corner. But more recent data serve to highlight that this optimism may be misplaced. Although Government schemes are providing …
7th March 2013
The construction sector has endured a terrible recession, with double-digit declines in output and employment. In theory, there is scope for a sharp comeback. But given the squeeze on credit and public sector building and the possibility of a shift in …
House prices increased in February, with the annual rate of growth the highest in 2½ years. But market fundamentals argue against a sustained improvement. … Halifax House Prices (Feb. …
6th March 2013
Smaller mortgage lenders are continuing to take market share from the established big lenders. Primarily, this reflects most big lenders consciously reducing the size of their mortgage books after being stung by the financial crisis. But the FLS, both …
5th March 2013
The second set of data on the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) suggested that take-up of the scheme is increasing, but that lending is not yet rising as a result. … Funding for Lending Scheme not boosting lending …
4th March 2013
Today’s housing market data highlight the risk that the renewed optimism towards the market which has been evident in recent weeks may be running ahead of itself. The broadly flat picture for house prices and the dip in mortgage approvals look symptomatic …
1st March 2013
January’s house price data provide little evidence that the modest improvement in national house price indices in recent months has become any less reliant on the strength of London. … Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Jan. …
28th February 2013
Mortgage approvals for house purchase fell in January, the first decline for six months. While the bad weather didn’t help matters, this is a timely reminder that the recent pick-up in housing market activity is not based on firm foundations. … BBA …
25th February 2013
Housing starts dropped back in 2012 to below 100,000. But there are some indications that builders are beginning to see a modest increase in demand for new homes. … Housebuilding …
21st February 2013
Claims that we need 240,000 new homes a year are based on household projections which have significantly underestimated average household size. The provisional 2011 Census results strongly suggest these projections are too simplistic to be a useful tool …
20th February 2013
The buy-to-let market will expand modestly over 2013, with the demand for, and supply of, private rented property edging up. But affordability constraints will mean that rental growth will be lower than in recent years, and while voids should remain low, …
14th February 2013
A further decline in the number of properties possessed by lenders is good news for households. But with real earnings continuing to fall, more borrowers are likely to fall into arrears over the course of 2013. … Mortgage Arrears and Possessions (Q4 …
The BTL lending market showed further signs of recovery in the final stages of last year. This year, the low level of interest rates and the prospect of healthy tenant demand both argue that further gains are more likely than not. But the weak economy and …
The January RICS survey suggests the housing market had a faltering start to 2013. While mortgage rates are continuing to fall, first-time buyers face strict credit scoring criteria and house prices which are still high in relation to their earnings. … …
12th February 2013
Government efforts to support the housing market, particularly through the FLS, appear to be bearing fruit. But the fact remains that house prices are still very high in comparison to earnings, and these interventions are just delaying the necessary …
8th February 2013
Consumers will have to endure a further tough year. We no longer expect consumer spending to rise at all in real terms in 2013. But a recovery should start next year. … Another tough year to get …
6th February 2013
The boost to house prices seen at the end of 2012 did not continue into early 2013. The housing market is currently being supported by Government interventions, but with most measures still pointing to significant house price overvaluation, they are …
Today’s news that house prices started the year with a modest rise provides some further evidence that the housing market is starting to respond to Government efforts to kick-start the sector. But it remains to be seen if this improvement is sustainable. …
31st January 2013
Mortgage approvals resumed their upward trend in December. Whether this trend can continue may now depend upon the actions of the big lenders, who to date appear less keen to expand their mortgage lending. … Mortgage Lending (Dec. …
30th January 2013
Today’s Land Registry data provides further evidence that house prices recovered towards the end of 2012. But with anaemic GDP growth expected over 2013, any sustained rise in house prices looks doubtful. Indeed, further falls are likely. … Land …
29th January 2013
The slight drop in the value of sterling in recent months has reduced the value of prime London property held by overseas buyers. But with the euro-zone crisis only contained, rather than solved, we doubt this will herald an exodus of foreign capital from …
24th January 2013
The recent growth in mortgage approvals appears to have stalled. While the FLS has helped to bring mortgage rates down, the depressed state of the economy is acting as a significant drag on housing demand. … BBA Mortgage Lending (Dec. …
Two years after the initial proposal, and having appeared to have gone cold on the idea in the meantime, the Government finally looks set to allow permission-free conversions of commercial property into residential use. This is a good move and we are …
22nd January 2013
The Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS), alongside other interventions, has helped bring down both long and short-term wholesale funding costs. But to date lenders have only passed these savings through to fixed-rate products. This may reflect the design of …
17th January 2013
The December RICS survey provided further evidence that the housing market strengthened towards the end of 2012. But it also suggested that the boost to lending activity from the FLS may be faltering. … RICS Housing Market Survey (Dec. …
15th January 2013
While house prices held up better than we expected towards the end of last year, the market’s underlying fundamentals remain unfavourable. Therefore, we have not made major adjustments to our housing market predictions. Overvaluation and a deteriorating …
14th January 2013
The Funding for Lending Scheme has helped to ease conditions in the mortgage market somewhat, leading to a marginal improvement in housing market activity. But we expect unemployment to start to rise and real earnings to fall yet again this year. With …
11th January 2013
Another increase in house prices during December suggests that the underlying trend in the housing market is improving. But with 2013 likely to bring further headwinds to housing demand, we doubt this trend will continue. … Halifax House Prices (Dec. …
7th January 2013
Mortgage approvals for house purchase increased for the fifth month in a row in November, but the pace of improvement is showing signs of slowing down. … Mortgage Lending (Nov. …
4th January 2013
Today’s data from the Nationwide showed that house prices fell by 1% over 2012. With another challenging year for the economy ahead, further falls are likely. … Nationwide House Prices …
3rd January 2013
Over the past five years, the economy has been through three Rs: recession, recovery and relapse. It is hoped that 2013 will see the start of a fourth R, revival. However, we think that the economy will continue to flatline this year, with a meaningful …
2nd January 2013
Alongside other house price data, today’s Land Registry figures showed that house prices increased marginally towards the end of 2012. But with 2013 set to be another challenging year for the economy, we doubt this good news will continue. … Land Registry …
The latest survey on household finances from the Bank of England paints a fairly bleak picture of potential first-time buyers’ finances. And with the average deposit required by lenders still historically high, it seems highly unlikely that pent-up …
20th December 2012
The housing market could benefit from a number of positive surprises in 2013. In particular, two thatspring to mind are an acceleration of the take-up of the Funding for Lending Scheme, and ongoing strength in the labour market. But given the extent to …
14th December 2012
FSA data on the mortgage market in the third quarter make for grim reading, with lending down but mortgage rates and arrears both up. While it is too early for the FLS to have had an effect on these numbers, they suggest that it is sorely needed. … FSA …
11th December 2012
After a surprisingly strong set of results last month, a softening across most of the indicators in the November RICS survey confirms that the housing market is still very depressed. … RICS Housing Market Survey (Nov. …
The housing market is showing some renewed signs of life as the year ends, but we suspect these will be snuffed out during 2013. An economy struggling to grow, increases in unemployment and a continued decline in real incomes all point to further, gentle …
7th December 2012
The largest monthly rise in house prices for eight months would seem to provide further evidence that the housing market is ending 2012 on a more positive note. But with the economy set for another very challenging year in 2013, we doubt this is the start …
6th December 2012
There were few surprises in this Autumn Statement, which simply represented a continuation of the existing strategy. The Statement will do little to get the economy out of its current malaise and a triple-dip remains a real threat. … Autumn Statement …
5th December 2012
An annual charge on some owners of residential property worth over £2m is unlikely to have a material impact on London’s competitiveness. The main impact will be to lower the price of those homes affected which, given the rate at which they have been …
It’s still early days, but the first set of data for the uptake of the Funding for Lending Scheme are underwhelming. Only six of the 35 institutions signed-up had borrowed any money by the end of September, and of those six half reduced their lending to …
3rd December 2012
With house prices still high and lending criteria tight, the increase in demand necessary to stoke a revival in house prices will not be forthcoming anytime soon. Prices are currently being supported by a low supply of homes on the market, but the special …
30th November 2012
The slight strengthening in lettings market activity in the three months to October, suggests that many households remain unable or unwilling to obtain a mortgage. And alongside the weak outlook for jobs and earnings, the rise in the supply of rented …
29th November 2012
