Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
While buyer interest continues to build, sellers are reluctant to return to the market. A growing disparity between the number of active buyers and sellers does not seem a healthy basis for the upturn in house prices or house price expectations. … RICS …
10th December 2013
Yesterday’s announcement that foreign owners of property will be liable for CGT from April 2015 is unlikely to encourage those owners to sell up, as it will only apply to future gains. But the move to tighten CGT rules aimed at investors and second home …
6th December 2013
There is no sign that the housing market is losing momentum as the year draws to a close, with prices up a substantial 1.1% during November. That will add to the pressure on the Bank of England to do more to calm the market. … Halifax House Prices (Nov …
The housing market is still some way off boom territory, with mortgage approvals 40% below pre- crisis levels and annual house price inflation under 5% in most regions. But with market conditions becoming ever tighter the risk of a new housing market …
5th December 2013
The Bank of England has started the slow process of withdrawing support to the mortgage market. In our view, the acceleration of the review into the introduction of an industry-wide leverage ratio is the most significant change, and could prove …
2nd December 2013
The Bank of England reported that mortgage approvals for house purchase continued to grow in October, although at a slower pace than in the recent past. Rigorous affordability tests appear to be preventing a more rapid surge in lending. … Mortgage …
29th November 2013
There is no sign that the gains to house prices are losing any momentum, with a rise of 0.6% in November according to the Nationwide. But we still doubt this will develop into a widespread house price boom, particularly now that the Bank of England has …
Alongside the release of its Financial Stability Report, the Bank of England has unveiled new measures to blunt the incentives for banks to make new mortgage loans. While these initiatives may do little directly to cool the housing market, the Financial …
28th November 2013
The Land Registry posted a surpise fall in house prices during October of 0.2%, and revised down September’s gain. But overall the evidence is that house price rises are becoming more widespread, explaining why the Bank of England took action this morning …
The BBA reported a slight fall in mortgage approvals for house purchase in October, ending a seven month run of expansion. While we expect that approvals will continue to grow over the coming months, this is a useful reminder that banks are still being …
25th November 2013
A sizeable boost in new-build demand from the Help to Buy equity loan scheme has helped stimulate a recovery in housebuilding. But capacity constraints will prevent a rapid return to pre-crisis building levels. … Housebuilding (Q3 …
21st November 2013
With the economy and labour market recovering at the same time as mortgage rates have seen further falls, it is not surprising that arrears and possessions have declined. But household finances are still vulnerable to potential shocks. … Mortgage …
14th November 2013
Increased housing transactions and a decline in the stock of interest-only mortgages have boosted mortgage principal repayments, and allowed lenders to advance more mortgages without having to increase net lending. Those factors are likely to continue, …
13th November 2013
The latest RICS survey shows that housing market conditions are continuing to tighten, as expectations of another house price boom - fanned by Government schemes - keeps housing demand high, but the supply of homes for sale low. … RICS Residential …
12th November 2013
By bringing forward the launch of the Help to Buy guarantee scheme, the Government has given a further boost to expectations that house prices must rise. That has led to very tight market conditions, and sellers have taken the opportunity to boost their …
7th November 2013
While real pay looks set to continue to fall until mid-2014, rising wealth, further modest gains in employment, income tax cuts and looser credit conditions should all help to sustain the recovery in consumer spending in the meantime. … Spending …
Halifax reported another strong rise in house prices in October. Widespread expectations that house prices will rise in the future, fanned by ill-conceived Government interventions, have led to a surge in buyer enquiries. And with the number of homes for …
6th November 2013
House price gains gathered pace in October, with another strong rise over the month. The risk that these gains trigger a self-fulfilling house price boom in more areas of the country is growing, but is not yet a foregone conclusion. … Nationwide House …
31st October 2013
The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase jumped again in September, as banks recycle a steady rise in mortgage repayments to new borrowers. While still historically low, 2013 will see the highest number of mortgage approvals since the onset of …
29th October 2013
With a hefty 1.5% rise in house prices during September, the Land Registry is now in agreement with other measures that prices are coming under continued upwards pressure. But, parts of central London aside, talk of a house price boom is overdone. … …
28th October 2013
According to the BBA, mortgage approvals in September jumped by the largest amount in a single month since the end of 2008. Even so, net mortgage lending was once again negative, and banks appear to have little appetite to substantially increase the size …
23rd October 2013
Despite some of yesterday's headlines, London aside, October's jump in asking prices was not exceptional. But the data highlight the risk that, even if Help to Buy fails to boost transactions, it may trigger a self-fulfilling rise in house price …
22nd October 2013
The authorities are taking comfort from the fall in mortgage debt as a share of disposable income in recent years. But that primarily reflects a rise in benefit payments and net interest income, as well as lower taxes. The more relevant indicator for …
18th October 2013
With much fanfare, the Government has brought forward by three months the launch of the controversial Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme. We remain unconvinced that it will generate a large number of additional sales, but what impact it does have will …
15th October 2013
We have been more sceptical than most that the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee will spark a new house price boom. Although the complexity of the scheme makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions, nothing in yesterday’s launch documentation has altered our …
9th October 2013
The RICS reported another strong rise in new buyer enquires in September, even before today’s launch of the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee. But with interest rates on the first guaranteed mortgage products to be announced looking expensive, and with …
8th October 2013
The recent concerns about the type of economic recovery underway in the UK are overdone. While the recovery still faces some major challenges, we do not believe that an over-reliance on the housing market is one of them. In fact, in this …
7th October 2013
Fears that another house price boom is on the way risk becoming self-fulfilling, as buyers rush into the market and sellers stay away in anticipation of future price gains. But demand still faces several constraints – real earnings are falling, banks are …
3rd October 2013
House prices rose further in September according to the Halifax, driven up by a release of some pent-up housing demand. The mortgage guarantee aspect of Help to Buy may push prices up further, but we doubt it will be as successful as some fear, and a …
Another steady rise in mortgage approvals indicates a housing market that is gradually recovering. But the growth in lending is likely to remain modest, despite attempts by the Government to supercharge the recovery. … Mortgage Lending (Aug. …
30th September 2013
The Land Registry house price index recorded a surprisingly weak 0.1% monthly rise in August, setting it apart from other, stronger measures. But it confirmed that London, where house price inflation reached 7.1%, is very still much the outlier. … Land …
27th September 2013
With conditions in the housing market very tight, September saw another strong rise in prices of 0.9%. But the good news is that, in response to growing concerns about the pace of these gains, the Chancellor has given the Bank of England more powers to …
Despite extensive media coverage, outside of central London there is little evidence of a house price boom, and there has been no increase in the stock of mortgage debt. Therefore, there seems little chance that the Financial Policy Committee will act to …
25th September 2013
The number of mortgages approved by banks increased again in August. But the momentum in mortgage lending growth appears to be fading, and there is scant evidence that a renewed secured credit boom is about to take-off. … BBA Mortgage Lending (Aug. …
24th September 2013
The sharp rise in swap rates in recent months has raised concerns that fixed mortgage rates will now follow. But while lenders will still be keen to maintain a healthy margin on any new lending, some banks are now looking to increase market share. That …
20th September 2013
The ONS house price index, which shows that prices in England have returned to pre-crisis highs, has made plenty of headlines today. But compared to other indices, the ONS measure places greater weight on higher valued properties and developments in …
18th September 2013
A boom in house prices would certainly not be sustainable, and the authorities should take action to prevent this. But the Bank of England already has new tools to prevent any unwarranted rise in house prices, and these should be tested before a rigid …
13th September 2013
There was a further slight uptick in mortgage approvals in September, but it would be premature to view this as the start of a sustained recovery in the housing market. The improvement was modest, and banks show no desire to materially increase their …
12th September 2013
Business cycles in advanced economies have been exceptionally closely aligned in recent years because of the global financial crisis, but they are likely to become less so in future. Although a global recovery is now under way, we doubt that the rising …
11th September 2013
A robust year-on-year rise in gross mortgage lending during the second quarter of 2013 provides further evidence that the mortgage market is returning to life. But first-time buyers without a large deposit, or willing to buy a new home via Help to Buy, …
10th September 2013
Another strong rise in the demand for homes, coupled with a lagging response on properties being put up for sale, has led to a rise in house prices. But the conditions for a sustainable rise in first-time buyer numbers are not in place, and future price …
Past housing market upswings have all coincided with above-average rates of consumer spending growth. But it is easy to overstate the strength of the direct linkages between the two. Therefore, unless we have under-estimated the likely strength of income …
9th September 2013
House prices rose further in August according to the Halifax, as demand for homes outstripped the number being put up for sale. But that imbalance is likely to subside gradually, which will reduce the upwards pressure on prices. … Halifax House Prices …
6th September 2013
The region is restructuring, but not by enough to allow it to outperform the UK in the years ahead. We forecast 1.3% growth this year and 2% in 2014, matching the UK, but with longer run rates about 1% below the UK. So only modest employment rises after …
5th September 2013
The housing market appears to be gaining traction, with a further rise in house prices and mortgage lending. But talk of a new housing boom is wide of the mark. … Nationwide House Prices (Aug.) & Mortgage Lending …
30th August 2013
House prices as measured by the Land Registry are now beginning to catch up with the main lender indices, with the strongest month-on-month rise for 1½ years. But a new house price boom still looks to be unlikely. … Land Registry Repeat Sales Index …
29th August 2013
The new-build premium has more or less held its ground over the past year, with new homes around 15% more expensive than equivalent second-hand properties. But with new-build prices now receiving an additional stimulus from the equity loan component of …
The steady growth in mortgage approvals stalled in July, and net lending was negative for an unprecedented seventh month in a row. While this is probably a blip, it highlights that lenders are still cautious about whom they lend to, and talk of a new …
23rd August 2013
By reducing households’ concerns that mortgage rates will increase in the near future, forward guidance has the potential to provide a further boost to housing demand. But while the policy can’t harm housing market activity, with wholesale interest rates …
21st August 2013
After the success of the Help to Buy equity loan scheme, there are concerns that the potentially much larger mortgage guarantee aspect of the scheme could trigger a new house price boom when it is launched in 2014. Compared to the equity loan, however, …
19th August 2013
