Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Labour’s proposal for a three year stamp duty holiday for first-time buyers will distort the market and will not address any of the market’s deeper failings. That won’t help FTBs. Indeed, it could lead to new buyers paying inflated prices for homes. … …
27th April 2015
The sharp fall in the number of vacant dwellings over the past couple of years seems to support the view that there is a severe shortage of housing. But with other data showing that the dwelling stock is rising faster than the household population, the …
24th April 2015
A number of measures indicate that the strong economic backdrop has led to a boost in housing market sentiment. However, active housing demand remains very subdued. In part that reflects a lack of homes available to buy, with stock levels close to record …
21st April 2015
Economists and policymakers are significantly overestimating the permanent damage inflicted to the economy from the financial crisis and recession. We still think that the economy has the potential to grow strongly over the next few years without …
16th April 2015
The RICS survey reported that house prices are starting to gather pace. While demand is still subdued, the few buyers that are in the market are competing for a dwindling number of homes for sale. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
Extending Right to Buy to housing associations will be challenging to implement, and could make it more difficult to boost the supply of housing. And other things equal, moving people from the social rented to owner-occupation sector will over time act to …
14th April 2015
A favourable economic backdrop and record low mortgage rates have boosted consumer sentiment, and given households the confidence to think about buying a home. With banks now starting to raise mortgage availability as new rules and regulations bed in, …
9th April 2015
House prices according to the Halifax increased by 0.4% during March, pushing underlying growth to a six-month high. With employment at record highs at the same time as mortgage rates are at record lows, the conditions are in place for further gains this …
The Credit Conditions Survey painted a weak picture of the residential mortgage market, but confirmed that the commercial lending market is improving. While the supply of residential mortgages is expected to improve, borrowers seeking a high LTV or LTI …
8th April 2015
The ability to deduct mortgage interest before paying tax on rental income does not offer buy-to-let investors an advantage over owner-occupiers. But the fact that investors are not subject to the majority of regulations that govern first-time buyers and …
2nd April 2015
Mortgage approvals for house purchase increased to a six-month high in February, helped by record low mortgage rates and rising employment. As lenders become more comfortable with the new regulatory regime, that recovery should continue. … Mortgage …
31st March 2015
The Nationwide reported house prices more-or-less held their ground in March, pushing the annual rate down to its lowest level since September 2013. But the Land Registry reported stronger gains and with underlying housing demand strengthening, we expect …
27th March 2015
A strong economic backdrop, and early signs that lenders are seeking to raise the availability of loans helped mortgage approvals increase for the second month in a row. Both factors should continue to support the market for the rest of the year. … BBA …
25th March 2015
Despite a very favourable economic backdrop, the RICS new buyer enquires balance has yet to report any rise in housing demand. But other indicators do show that underlying demand is strengthening. That suggests many households are willing to buy, but are …
24th March 2015
The Help to Buy ISA has the potential to boost house prices over a two to six year horizon. But we expect it will dampen activity in the short term, as prospective buyers hold back to provide their deposits a helpful boost from the UK taxpayer. … Help to …
18th March 2015
Housing demand finally stabilised in February according to RICS surveyors, but the lack of homes for sale appears to be weighing on buyer enquiries. But that same lack of properties on the market is helping house prices to make further gains. … RICS …
12th March 2015
Despite a further drop in mortgage rates, banks and building societies have cut back their mortgage lending. That reflects a stricter lending environment, with the share of high loan-to-value and loan-to-income loans both declining during the fourth …
10th March 2015
While far from conclusive, a number of indicators are pointing to a revival in housing market activity. The reform to stamp duty will have helped to boost demand, but more fundamentally record low mortgage rates, rising earnings and greater confidence …
6th March 2015
Given how volatile the Halifax house price index has been in recent months, we wouldn’t read too much into the marginal fall recorded in February. After all, the underlying trend in prices is still strengthening, as record low mortgage rates and rising …
5th March 2015
House prices held their ground in February according to the Nationwide. But with mortgage approvals rising for the second consecutive month, and mortgage rates dropping yet again, prices will soon return to a gentle upwards trend. … Nationwide House …
2nd March 2015
House prices rose by a robust 1.3% over January according to the Land Registry, which brought a halt to the downward trend in the 3m/3m and annual rate of inflation. While it is too early to say for sure, that could reflect the reform to stamp duty. In …
27th February 2015
While housing market activity has been easing across the country, London has experienced by far the largest slowdown. Demand has contracted sharply thanks to prices which have reached a record high in relation to earnings. At the same time, given its …
26th February 2015
The latest statistics on household formation show there has been a surge in the number of households with non-dependent children. While most will view this as further confirmation of a housing shortage, in reality other factors offer a more plausible …
The January figures from the BBA suggest that mortgage lending has finally bottomed out, with approvals for house purchase rising for the first time since June. Now that expectations for interest rate rises are receding, the economy is on the up and stamp …
25th February 2015
Despite the Government pumping £1.75bn into the industry via Help to Buy equity loans, housing starts dropped for the second consecutive quarter at the end of 2014. But with early signs that housing demand is now at least stabilising, housebuilding …
19th February 2015
Advances for house purchase in the fourth quarter declined compared to the final quarter of 2013, reflecting the mood of buyer caution. But the share of loans to first-time buyers is still high, and LTI ratios edged back up in December. … CML Lending …
17th February 2015
The housing market has made a subdued start the year, with new buyer demand as yet failing to respond to the reforms to stamp duty. But there are some other signs that sales activity is beginning to pick-up. Given record low mortgage rates and a strong …
12th February 2015
The marked fall in energy prices over the past six months or so has provided households with a timely boost to their discretionary spending power and so provides another reason to think that the consumer recovery will maintain a robust pace in 2015. … …
11th February 2015
The slowdown in the housing market appears to be bottoming out, helped by record low mortgage rates, rising real earnings and the reform to stamp duty. If banks respond to the increase in demand by boosting lending volumes, house prices are set to record …
6th February 2015
The upwards revision to the ONS private rental data brings it closer into line with alternative measures, and so does not alter our views on the housing market. But the figures do suggest that while there may not be a national housing shortage, London is …
5th February 2015
House prices rose at a strong rate for the second month in a row in January, which could reflect the reform to stamp duty giving prices a boost. But while a healthy economic backdrop and record low mortgage rates will help prices make further gains in …
We are not forecasting a return to boom conditions in 2015. However, we do think that the outlook for both house prices and housing market activity is rather stronger than is typically believed, as a steady economic recovery and the reforms to stamp duty …
4th February 2015
In contrast to the earlier BBA data, the Bank of England reported a rise in approvals for house purchase in December. With mortgage rates at record lows, and consumer confidence at seven-year highs, that recovery is set to continue. … Mortgage Lending …
30th January 2015
House price growth was stable in the first month of 2015, as a fall in housing demand has been matched by limited supply. But there are signs that demand has picked-up recently, and we expect gains will accelerate slightly from here. … Nationwide (Jan.) …
29th January 2015
The number of mortgages approved for house purchase dipped again in December, and ended the year 28% lower than the beginning. But record low mortgage rates, the reforms to stamp duty, the return of real earnings growth and a reduction in regulatory …
27th January 2015
While the UK’s economic recovery has shown some signs of flagging recently, we think its best days may still lie ahead. Admittedly, it has depended on some unsustainable sources and the general election remains a wildcard for the economic outlook. But a …
26th January 2015
General elections have in the past had no discernable impact on the housing market. While it can be argued that the elevated level of uncertainty surrounding this year’s election will change that pattern, we suspect that the significance of the election …
22nd January 2015
Housing market activity dropped sharply in the second half of 2014 as fears of a rise in interest rates, high housing valuations and a lack of stock on the market constrained demand. But several factors suggest that housing market activity will now begin …
21st January 2015
While housing demand fell once again in December, the final RICS survey of 2014 reported that surveyors were hopeful that the reforms to stamp duty will boost both housing market activity and prices in 2015. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
15th January 2015
The surprisingly large 0.9% gain in house prices during December reported by the Halifax hides a further cooling in the underlying growth rate. But the stamp duty reform, strong economic backdrop and further fall in mortgage rates all suggest that prices …
8th January 2015
The housing market ended 2014 on a subdued note as demand, sales instructions, mortgage lending and transactions all declined. But with mortgage rates now also falling, and stamp duty reform set to boost buyers’ purchasing power, demand should see a …
7th January 2015
The BBA reported a further drop in mortgage approvals for house purchase in November, which are now down almost 20% compared to last year. However, the reforms to stamp duty and lifting of regulatory uncertainty should help mortgage lending to slowly …
23rd December 2014
The uncertainty generated by the slump in oil prices and the crisis in Russia have the potential to give a short-term boost to safe haven demand for prime central London homes. But beyond that shortterm support, and when combined with the reforms to …
19th December 2014
We estimate that the direct impact of the reform to stamp duty will boost house prices by a relativelyminor 0.6%. But the indirect effect of reducing upfront costs and boosting housing market sentimentwill be more powerful. Overall house prices will end …
17th December 2014
The November RICS survey reported that housing demand is continuing to contract, while prices are now expected to stall over the next quarter. But reforms to stamp duty, and the recent dip in mortgage rates, should help demand to recover slowly over the …
11th December 2014
The growth in mortgage lending has slowed, as new regulations have led to a decline in the share of high loan-to-value and loan-to-income mortgages. But alongside a further fall in the share of mortgages in arrears, that will put households in a stronger …
9th December 2014
The share of income a new buyer spends on their mortgage is an obvious way to measure housing affordability. But whether it is calculated using average house prices and incomes, or mortgage lender records, the data suggest that ultra-low interest rates …
8th December 2014
Although homeowners are currently carrying a lot of mortgage debt, compressing mortgage spreads and an expected concurrent increase in incomes means that they are not notably more sensitive to a rise in interest rates than in the past. … Are homeowners …
5th December 2014
House price gains have continued to cool according to the Halifax, reflecting the earlier drop in demand growth. The cut in stamp duty announced by the Chancellor yesterday will give house prices a boost over the next few months, but with house prices …
4th December 2014
Reforming Stamp Duty Land Tax from a slab to a graduated system is certainly an improvement, and should give a short-term boost to housing transactions. But it will also give another boost to overvalued house prices (at least those beneath £1m), and offer …
3rd December 2014
