Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Mortgage approvals for house purchase got off to a weak start in 2019, consistent with our view that lending and housing transactions will weaken again this year. … UK Finance Mortgage Lending …
26th February 2019
While the uncertainty caused by Brexit is hampering consumption, households’ finances are fundamentally sound. Indeed, with earnings growth at a decade-high in December and inflation below its 2% target, households are now enjoying the first sustained …
21st February 2019
Facing weak demand, lenders have cut their interest margins to compete for business, dampening the impact that rate hikes have had on mortgage pricing. But looking ahead, there is limited room for margins to shrink further, meaning mortgage interest rates …
20th February 2019
Housing demand fell sharply in January, but we doubt that heralds a collapse in prices. But conversely, even if a Brexit deal is done, the market is unlikely to rebound. In all, we expect the housing market to stay in limbo for the rest of the year. … …
14th February 2019
There has been a long-running mismatch between where homes are built, and where people are moving to. The government’s standard method for assessing new housing need targets this discrepancy, and should be welcomed, not criticised. … Are homes being built …
12th February 2019
House price growth has slowed to a near standstill, while mortgage approvals are falling. Much of that reflects the high level of house prices, although Brexit uncertainty is increasingly taking its toll on sentiment. Looking ahead, that trend looks set …
8th February 2019
While house prices have some downward momentum, we don’t think that heralds the start of a sustained fall. Rather, we expect house price growth to maintain its sluggish pace in 2019. … Halifax House Prices …
7th February 2019
Brexit is a political crisis, not an economic one. While the extra uncertainty caused by Brexit has clearly hampered investment and consumption, the economy is fundamentally sound. There are still many different ways Brexit could play out and this …
5th February 2019
The rise in owner occupation recorded in the English Housing Survey is probably more than just noise. And with a revival in buy-to-let unlikely, that trend looks set to persist, suggesting that owner occupation may have reached an inflection point. … Is …
Plans to limit the creation of new leaseholds, as well as to cap ground rents, are unlikely to raise newbuild house prices. Meanwhile, developers could see a small hit to their margins, at least in the short run. But we doubt that the rate of …
1st February 2019
January’s very weak result for house price growth was unexpected, but we don’t think it heralds the start of a sustained decline in prices. Indeed, assuming a Brexit deal is done, we think prices will rise by 1% this year. … Nationwide House Prices …
31st January 2019
After falling sharply in November, house purchase mortgage approvals fell once more in December – consistent with our weak outlook for lending. Indeed, even if a Brexit deal is agreed by the end of March, we think approvals will fall by 2% this year. … …
30th January 2019
Mortgage approvals suffered a second successive monthly decline in December, suggesting that the outlook for lending remains subdued against a backdrop of high house prices and expected rises in interest rates. … UK Finance Mortgage Lending …
25th January 2019
Rising Brexit uncertainty only reinforces our weak outlook for the housing market. In our most likely scenario, we think transactions will dip this year before edging back up in 2020, all while house prices stagnate. That said, even with a no-deal Brexit, …
24th January 2019
Credit availability for both commercial and residential property tightened in Q4, and with Brexit uncertainty likely to be extended, that trend looks set to persist. … Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey …
17th January 2019
December’s RICS data support our view that the housing market will stay weak in 2019. Indeed, with Brexit uncertainty set to be extended, we expect little or no growth in transactions this year. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
While annual house price growth was broadly flat in November, we expect price inflation to slow across 2019. That will be driven by the high level of house prices and interest rate normalisation, as well as by continued Brexit uncertainty. … UK House …
16th January 2019
Housing starts surged in Q3, but we doubt that marks the start of a new, upward trend. Indeed, with the wider housing market set to stay weak and Help-to-Buy on the way out, we expect housing starts to gradually decline in both 2019 and 2020. … …
15th January 2019
After growing rapidly in recent years, we think remortgaging will peak in 2019. That view is driven by the shift towards longer duration fixed-rate loans, which has reduced the need for borrowers to refinance as often. … Remortgaging set to peak in …
14th January 2019
Much like the year just passed, 2019 will be a subdued year for housing. Transactions and mortgage approvals saw no meaningful gains, house prices grew very slowly, and all signs point to a weak first quarter of 2019. Even if a Brexit deal is reached, we …
9th January 2019
House prices rose by 1.3% in 2018, and we think the weakness in house price growth will persist this year. After all, if a Brexit deal is done, the housing market would still be weighed down by high prices and normalising interest rates. … Halifax House …
8th January 2019
2019 will be another subdued year for housing, with no meaningful recovery in transactions and house price growth. Housebuilding has likely passed its peak, and will fall gently this year, as weak market conditions increasingly weigh on demand for new …
4th January 2019
House price growth and mortgage approvals softened towards the end of 2018 – consistent with our weak outlook for the housing market. Indeed, even assuming that a Brexit deal is struck this year, we don’t expect to see a revival in the housing market. … …
London’s house purchase and rental market will diverge next year. High house prices and rising interest rates will push down London house prices, and make a sustained recovery in transactions unlikely. Yet with tenant demand growth strengthening and …
21st December 2018
House price growth slowed to its lowest rate since 2013 in October, and we expect that cooldown to continue into 2019. Indeed, even if Brexit deal is struck, we expect annual house price growth of just 1% next year. … UK House Price Index …
19th December 2018
London‘s house prices have been falling for much of the last year and we see this as only the start of a correction. But this is the result of specific factors relating to the capital and further house price increases are still expected in the rest of the …
17th December 2018
Leading indicators suggest that, not long after it started, the dip in London rents will soon end. Indeed, on the back of rising tenant demand and weak supply growth, we think rental growth in the capital will gently accelerate from here, to 2% by 2020. … …
14th December 2018
November’s fall in buyer enquiries and sales instructions is consistent with our view that there will be no revival in the housing market next year. Indeed, with the pipeline of housing sales weakening, transactions are more likely to fall, rather than …
13th December 2018
Despite a small rise in average mortgage LTVs and LTIs, a material loosening in credit conditions is not on the way. Indeed, even if a Brexit deal is reached, we expect little or no growth in mortgage lending next year. … Mortgage Lenders and …
11th December 2018
Our outlook for the housing market is weak. Admittedly, the recent rise in mortgage approvals and housing transactions offered a little relief for the market. But leading indicators suggest that those gains won’t be repeated. Indeed, even with a Brexit …
10th December 2018
House price inflation on the Halifax index paused in November. With house prices set to stay very high relative to incomes and interest rates rising, we expect house price growth to stay sluggish over the next two years. … Halifax House Prices …
7th December 2018
There is little evidence that Brexit uncertainty has led to pent-up demand in the housing market. So even if a Brexit deal is struck, we see little prospect of a rise in housing transactions next year. … Even a Brexit deal won’t revive the housing …
4th December 2018
House price growth accelerated in November. But that didn’t alter the wider trend of slowing house price inflation. With house prices very high relative to incomes and interest rates on an upward trajectory, we expect house price inflation to slow further …
30th November 2018
House purchase mortgage approvals rose in October. But that did little to offset the weakness in lending seen over the last year. Moreover, there are few reasons to believe that the latest rise is the start of a new, upward trend. Indeed, we expect little …
29th November 2018
Mortgage approvals for house purchase ended three months of decline with a small rise in October. But with house prices high and interest rates expected to rise next year, the outlook for lending is expected to be subdued for some time. … UK Finance …
26th November 2018
Having surged in recent years, office to residential conversions have passed their peak. And conversions of other property types to residential are unlikely to soon make up the difference. Combined with falling output among traditional housebuilders, we …
23rd November 2018
The interest premium on high LTV lending is falling, as banks push to maintain lending flows in the face of weak housing demand. But we don’t expect that to trigger a fresh boom in lending. … No sign of easing in deposit …
19th November 2018
While house price inflation edged up in September, the wider trend is still one of slowing growth. With house prices set to stay high relative to incomes, interest rates rising and house price expectations weakening, we expect that trend to persist into …
14th November 2018
In our base case, which is predicated on a Brexit deal being secured and the UK entering into a status quo transition period, a further rise in real earnings should spur a recovery in consumer spending growth. As a result, we expect real spending growth …
13th November 2018
Falling buyer confidence and subdued house price expectations will keep the housing market flat-lining until the end of the year. Rising interest rates will then prevent it from gaining traction in 2019. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
8th November 2018
The Halifax measure of house price growth fell to a 5-year low in October, echoing last week’s Nationwide index and supporting our view of a subdued outlook for UK house prices. … Halifax House Prices …
7th November 2018
The outlook for the housing market is subdued. In the near term, rate rises and signs of growing lender caution will add to the headwinds facing the market. That said, at least house prices are now rising more slowly than income. Given time, that will …
6th November 2018
According to the Nationwide, house price growth hit a five-year low in October. That result is in line with our expectation that house price inflation will subside to 1% or so next year. … Nationwide House Prices …
1st November 2018
The extension of Help-to-Buy provides housebuilders with much needed policy certainty. But with no broader housing market recovery in sight and HTB eligibility to tighten, the industry nonetheless faces weakening demand. We expect a gradual decline in …
31st October 2018
Mortgage approvals fell in September, leaving lending broadly flat over the last three months. Looking ahead, with house prices very high, interest rates on the rise and mortgage lenders becoming more cautious, the outlook for mortgage approvals is …
29th October 2018
Given the risks facing the housing market, the recent rise in lenders’ risk aversion is likely to persist. This supports our view that mortgage approvals will see little growth over the next two years. … Mortgage lender caution set to …
26th October 2018
Mortgage lending is on a gentle downward trajectory, as mortgage approvals for house purchase fell for a third consecutive month in September. Looking ahead, with house prices set to stay very high and interest rates rising, the outlook for lending is …
24th October 2018
The stagnation in the housing market is set to continue for the foreseeable future, as the combination of high house prices and rising mortgage rates, which are set to exceed 3% by 2020, hold the market back. Meanwhile, house price inflation will cool to …
18th October 2018
UK house price growth slowed a touch in August. And while today’s data points to stable London house prices, other indices point to a fall. On balance, we expect UK house price growth to slow further in 2018 and 2019, while London prices will see a modest …
17th October 2018
Rising real wage growth should pave the way for a consumer recovery next year. At the same time, the lifting of Brexit-related uncertainty will set the stage for a sharp rebound in investment spending. This should allow GDP growth to quicken from a …
15th October 2018
