Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Housing Use setting UK Housing
Credit availability eases in Q2 Lenders reported a drop in mortgage availability in Q2. And while that decline is expected to reverse in Q3, we doubt that will translate into a rebound in mortgage lending. Meanwhile, credit conditions for commercial real …
18th July 2019
Overview – As Brexit could dramatically alter the near-term outlook for the economy, we are continuing to publish three sets of forecasts based on different Brexit outcomes (deal, no deal and more delays). But there are three common themes to this …
16th July 2019
Surveyors report rise in buyer enquiries New buyer enquiries saw its first meaningful rise in over two years, but it’s too soon to call a housing market recovery. Indeed, the pick-up was partly driven by London and the South of England, where house prices …
11th July 2019
House prices fall as construction slows While house prices edged down in June, the Halifax index is still an outlier compared to the other main indices. Meanwhile, housing starts cooled in Q1. Looking ahead we expect the market to stay weak, with house …
5th July 2019
The construction PMI fell sharply in June, but we doubt that housing starts will see a comparable decline. However, with Help-to-Buy due to be pared back, we do expect a small fall in housebuilding out to 2021. June’s CIPS/IHS Markit construction PMI …
3rd July 2019
Weak house price growth in June According to the Nationwide, house price growth was very subdued June. And while the Brexit outcome is as uncertain as ever, the already high level of house prices suggests a rebound in the housing market is unlikely over …
2nd July 2019
Lending slips in May With house purchase lending falling gently in May, there is no sign of a rebound in the housing market. Indeed, with renewed Brexit uncertainty likely in the coming months, we expect house purchase mortgage approvals to end 2019 down …
1st July 2019
Mortgage approvals still at higher than expected levels Loans for house purchase eased slightly in May, but were still higher than at any other point since April 2017. There was a fall back in loans extended for re-mortgaging and we expect loans for house …
26th June 2019
London’s owner occupier housing market performed poorly, as prices fell and transactions stayed in reverse gear. With house prices high and uncertainty continuing to bite, a recovery in prices and transactions looks a long way off. That said, the …
20th June 2019
A high house price to rent ratio disadvantages the development of build-to-rent, relative to build-to-sell. And with capital values unlikely to grow as quickly as they have done in the past, total returns on residential property will not return to past …
17th June 2019
Despite its flaws, Help-to-Buy has been effective in supporting housing construction. As a result, when the time comes, the government may have little choice but to renew the scheme again. … Could HTB be renewed once …
14th June 2019
The RICS measure of new buyer enquires was broadly flat in May, breaking the 9-month run of declining demand. That said, it is still far too soon to call a housing market recovery. … RICS Residential Market Survey …
13th June 2019
Reflecting changes to the composition of their balance sheets, banks are increasingly pricing their loans off deposit funds, rather than short-term wholesale debt. That suggests there is a downside risk to our forecast for mortgage interest rates, albeit …
11th June 2019
High LTI and LTV lending saw little movement in Q1, despite competitive pressures on lenders, suggesting that mortgage lending is primarily constrained by demand. With uncertainty set to persist for at least several months more, we think a rebound in …
Despite an improvement in mortgage approvals, the housing market has struggled to gather any upward momentum. Indeed, with buyer confidence still weak and house prices still high relative to incomes, we expect house price growth to stay below 2% y/y out …
7th June 2019
The faster rate of house price growth recorded by the Halifax is an outlier, and should largely be discounted. Indeed, the other main indices report house prices rising by less than 2% per year – a trend which we expect to persist until 2021. … Halifax …
Recent housing proposals from Labour, if enacted, could have major consequences for the housing market. On the plus side, abolishing stamp duty could help to unclog housing transactions. But proposals to empower public sector housing development, combined …
4th June 2019
April’s strong rise in house purchase mortgage approvals more than reversed March’s fall. But we doubt that signals the start of a sustained recovery in lending. … Mortgage Lending …
31st May 2019
Uncertainty and the already high level of prices kept house price inflation subdued in May. Looking ahead, we expect these factors to keep price growth weak to the end of 2019 – at just 1% y/y. … Nationwide House Prices …
Mortgage approvals for house purchase saw a surprisingly large rise in April, but we doubt that signals the start of a sustained rebound in lending. Indeed, with all other signs consistent with softening housing market activity, the latest surge in …
28th May 2019
Rather than scale back their borrowing, buyers in London have taken advantage of falling house prices by purchasing better homes. But much of that reflects the continued ultra-low interest rate environment, which we think will start to unwind across our …
23rd May 2019
Labour intends to end Permitted Development Rights (PDRs) for office to residential conversions. This is a further blow to this scheme, which was already losing momentum, though it is unlikely to make a major difference to housing supply longer-term. … …
14th May 2019
Housing market conditions were weak in April, as the delay to Brexit did little to rebuild confidence in among buyers and sellers. Looking ahead, we expect uncertainty and high house prices to further hold back activity, driving a small fall in mortgage …
10th May 2019
Falling buyer enquiries and sales instructions point to further housing market weakness. And the rental market data also suggest that landlord instructions weakened. That supports our view that rental growth will accelerate over the next few years. … RICS …
9th May 2019
The sharp rise in Halifax house price growth stands in contrast to the other housing market data and should be interpreted with care. Indeed, our outlook for house price growth is much weaker, with prices set to grow by just 1% y/y in 2019, and by 2% y/y …
8th May 2019
Housing market uncertainty may soon start to ease. But a recovery in mortgage approvals or transactions is still unlikely this year. Indeed, given the high level of house prices relative to earnings, we expect to see only a modest rise in mortgage lending …
3rd May 2019
We doubt that March’s slump in mortgage approvals signals the start of a collapse in mortgage lending. Rather, assuming a Brexit deal is done later this year, we think lending will see a modest fall in 2019, before recovering gently in 2020. … Mortgage …
1st May 2019
House price growth was subdued in April, and we expect that trend to continue across our forecast – even assuming a Brexit deal is agreed later this year. … Nationwide House Prices …
With Brexit delayed, a recovery in transactions and house prices is unlikely this year. But even if a Brexit deal were to be agreed by October, high house prices and rising interest rates will leave house price growth sluggish further out. That said, we …
26th April 2019
March’s surprise rise in mortgage approvals is unlikely to be repeated next month. That said, the fact that lending has held up fairly well in the face of Brexit uncertainty so far, supports our view that any drop in approvals this year will be modest. … …
The six-month delay to Brexit until 31st October 2019 has put the brakes on interest rate hikes and left the economy travelling in the middle lane, with GDP likely to rise by 1.5% this year. But should a Brexit deal be struck in October, which is our …
24th April 2019
There was an unexpected loosening in credit conditions at the start of the year. But with no let-up in economic uncertainty and continued gloom about the outlook for housing, we expected this will be temporary. … Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey …
18th April 2019
The latest RICS survey was slightly less gloomy than a month ago, but this is unlikely to signal any change in the underlying market. Given Brexit concerns, conditions are likely to remain weak near term, with little improvement in activity or prices …
11th April 2019
February’s jump in the Halifax price measure was an outlier in a gloomy run of housing data, so it wasn’t a surprise that this has been partly reversed. The March figure is more in line with a backdrop of falling demand and weak sentiment, and broadly …
5th April 2019
An increase in high-end development and the use of sales incentives have supported recorded new home prices in London. That suggests the observed rise in the new home premium does not signal strengthening demand. Indeed, we expect new home sales in London …
3rd April 2019
January’s jump in house purchase mortgage approvals was not repeated in February. And while lending has been surprisingly resilient in the face of high house prices and mounting uncertainty, we expect approvals to fall a little further in 2019. … Mortgage …
29th March 2019
London’s house price fall intensified in Q1, in line with our expectations. That reflects the high level of prices there, as well as Brexit uncertainty. Looking ahead, we think prices in the capital will continue to fall in 2019, while price gains across …
In line with our view that housebuilding has peaked, last quarter’s surge in housing starts was not repeated in Q4. Looking ahead, with a wider housing market recovery unlikely anytime soon and Help-to-Buy due to be pared back, we think housing starts …
28th March 2019
Despite a slight rise in house purchase mortgage approvals during February, the outlook for lending is weak. Indeed, even if a Brexit deal were to be agreed soon, we expect no meaningful recovery in mortgage lending during 2019. … UK Finance Mortgage …
26th March 2019
House price growth in London has been surprisingly resilient. But with prices very high, interest rates set to rise and the stock of unsold homes growing, we expect a 3% fall in house prices this year. Meanwhile, all signs point to the weakness in …
22nd March 2019
Despite two past rate hikes, lenders’ standard variable mortgage rates are barely higher than in 2017. But we think SVRs will be more responsive to the further hikes likely to come in 2019 and 2020. … When will standard variable rates …
20th March 2019
Prime central London (PCL) house prices held up better than we expected in 2018, though the underlying trend remained weak. The outlook is unlikely to change in 2019 with economic uncertainty remaining high and more tax hikes in prospect, but after that …
15th March 2019
In recent decades, falling mortgage interest rates have allowed home buyers to borrow more relative to their incomes. But that support for house prices has now been exhausted. Indeed, our long-run interest rate view is consistent with a moderate fall in …
14th March 2019
The new buyer enquiries balance fell to a post-crisis low in February, but we doubt that a crash is imminent. That view is consistent with surveyors’ expectations, which anticipate a small improvement in activity and prices next year – once the Brexit fog …
Lending terms did not materially loosen in Q4, despite evidence of a pick-up in competitive pressures among lenders. Looking ahead, with uncertainty weighing in the near-term, and interest rates likely to rise once the Brexit fog clears, the likelihood of …
12th March 2019
Conditions in the housing market have seen no improvement over the last month. Indeed, the data suggest that new buyer enquiries deteriorated at its fastest rate since the financial crisis. Looking ahead, leading indicators suggest that transactions will …
7th March 2019
We wouldn’t put too much weight on the jump in house prices recorded by the Halifax index. Indeed, with all signs pointing to falling demand and weakening buyer sentiment, we think prices will rise by just 1% in 2019. … Halifax House Prices …
January’s surprise jump in house purchase mortgage approvals shouldn’t be overplayed. Given the weak data on buyer demand and house price expectations falling, we expect mortgage approvals to weaken in the coming months. … Mortgage Lending …
1st March 2019
February’s weak result for house price growth shows a market struggling under the weight of Brexit uncertainty. Yet, even if a Brexit deal is reached fairly soon, we think that house price growth will accelerate only a little in 2019, to just 1% y/y. … …
28th February 2019
An end to Help-to-Buy would cause only a minor disruption to first-time buyer housing demand. After all, while the scheme has allowed some FTBs to purchase a home with a smaller deposit, the number of buyers affected is still modest relative to the wider …
27th February 2019
