Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
Commercial property transactions now seem to have found a floor, but we doubt that they will suddenly rebound strongly. Even so, it seems more likely than not that market activity levels will improve to some degree over the coming quarters, pushing yields …
17th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Construction Survey, 2009Q2 …
14th August 2009
Commercial property derivatives pricing continues to improve. Moreover, the net outflows from pooled property investment funds, which have characterised the past couple of years, appear to have gone into reverse in 2009Q2. Individually, these developments …
7th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Property lending (09Q2) & CIPS/Markit construction PMI (Jul) …
4th August 2009
Our economic and commercial property forecasts are broadly unchanged from the previous Analyst. We still expect the recession to run well into next year and for all-property capital values to decline by 55% from peak to trough, a far bigger downturn than …
28th July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … IPD rental values remain on track for double-digit fall in 2009 (Aug …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Colliers CRE/EG Capital Property Pricing Survey …
27th July 2009
Shopping centre rental values are currently underperforming the other main retail sub-sectors, but there remain good reasons why this is unlikely to continue. For example, history suggests that consumer spending in categories important to shopping centre …
22nd July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (2009Q2) …
20th July 2009
The current commercial property occupier market downturn could run for another 12-18 months, and we think that, depending on the sector, rising voids over that period may take up to 5% off a typical landlord’s rental income stream. Clearly, that would be …
15th July 2009
The latest Strutt & Parker (S&P)/IPD Lease Events Review made for mixed reading from a commercial property investor’s point of view. Regardless, the shorter term influences that it looks at are small change in the context of the long-term downward trend …
13th July 2009
Retail sales have outperformed non-retail sales during the recession to date. Were that outperformance to continue it could be argued that the prospects for retail rental values are brighter than might be implied by existing forecasts for overall consumer …
8th July 2009
Today’s Credit Conditions survey from the Bank of England showed that the supply of mortgage finance appears to be slowly improving, but does not change our view that further price falls are very likely. The survey, along with the latest CIPS/Markit …
2nd July 2009
Monday’s CBI/PwC Financial Services Survey received a reasonable amount of media coverage due to the more upbeat tone of its results. At first glance, that might appear to suggest an imminent upturn in office occupier demand. However, a composite …
1st July 2009
Property markets were not a key feature of the Bank of England’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR). However, the focus of the report, on tighter regulation in future, adds to the case for thinking that credit supply right across the economy will not …
26th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recession likely to end this year, but property will lag behind (Jul …
25th June 2009
It has recently been put to us by a few clients that, counter to the Government’s best intentions, the Asset Protection Scheme (APS) will actually encourage lenders to foreclose on existing commercial property loans, thereby raising the risk of an …
18th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Financial & Business Services Employment (2009Q1) …
17th June 2009
Yesterday we revised up our economic forecasts. (See various Updates, available to clients on our website, for more details.) Although we still expect growth to remain weak, at the margin, the new forecasts imply a slightly less negative outlook for …
9th June 2009
Financial markets appear to have taken the recent signs that the downturn in the UK economy is past its absolute worst at face value, with equities, bond yields and the sterling exchange rate all rising to at least six month highs. But while the movements …
Tenant default and loss of rental income are now perhaps the foremost concerns for commercial property investors. As such, it is far from clear that property is undervalued, even though yields are now a record 400bps or so above government bonds. Indeed, …
8th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CIPS/Markit construction PMI (May) & Mergers/acquisitions (Q1) …
2nd June 2009
Structural changes to commercial property leases in the UK (e.g. more break clauses) have meant that landlords’ incomes are now more exposed to market forces than they once were. On the basis of the same sized fall in open-market rental values that was …
29th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Construction Survey, 2009Q1 …
28th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rental values falling at fastest pace in 15 years, worse to come (Jun …
26th May 2009
Anecdotal evidence that commercial property yields have peaked is steadily accumulating. To be sure, it is only a very narrow and select portion of the market in which yields are reported to have stopped rising. That said, if this evidence is accurate, …
21st May 2009
Broadly speaking, the De Montfort review for 2008 supports our long-held view that commercial property lending will remain weak for a prolonged period. The sanguine attitude of lenders towards breaches of loan-to-value ratios (LTVs) remains in place, but …
15th May 2009
All else equal, the recent falls in office development pipelines in Central London would be positive for the outlook for rental values. However, take-up has fallen at an even faster rate, meaning that in relative terms the pipelines have in fact risen. …
14th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank lending to commercial property (2009Q1) …
8th May 2009
Sentiment towards commercial property has improved of late and some anecdotal evidence suggests that yields have stabilised. However, to date, the improvement in sentiment appears modest and the stabilisation in yields limited to a small part of the …
6th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Commercial Survey (Q1) & CIPS/Markit PMI (Apr.) …
5th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI/GVA Grimley Corporate Real Estate Survey, 2009H1 …
1st May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Forecasts for rental values in 2009 starting to look too optimistic (May …
27th April 2009
To date, the recession has triggered a larger fall in commercial property rental values than past experience suggests is typical. The abrupt drop in financial and business services employment, with its knock-on effects for office rental values (especially …
24th April 2009
This Budget was a holding operation which left the really tough decisions required to sort out the public finances to be taken by whoever is Chancellor after the next election. The tax increases and spending cuts announced today are just the tip of the …
22nd April 2009
We expect all-industrial rental values to decline by 9% this year and by a further 13% in 2010. However, the experience of the early 1990s suggests that the worst performing regions could see annual falls in rental values that are around five percentage …
16th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Credit Conditions (Q1) & CIPS/Markit construction PMI (Mar.) …
2nd April 2009
31st March 2009
In our view, neither Government intervention in the banking sector nor quantitative easing (QE) is likely to alter the subdued outlook for commercial property lending. Not only will gross new lending flows be low, perhaps even zero, but lenders may also …
30th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Quantitative easing may help, but economic outlook still poor (Apr 09) …
27th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Institutional investment in property (2008Q4) …
26th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Financial & business services employment (2008Q4) …
18th March 2009
We continue to believe that IPD hotel total returns will be worse than the all-property average in 2009. However, in recognition of the changed economic circumstances, by contrast with what we predicted when we first looked closely at the hotel sector in …
13th March 2009
Financial markets appear finally to have grasped the severity of the economic outlook over the last few months. The steep falls in equity prices, bond yields and the sterling exchange rate have left them all looking much more consistent with current …
9th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … IPF Consensus Forecasts, 2009Q1 …
6th March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mergers/acquisitions (‘08Q4) & CIPS construction (Feb ’09) …
3rd March 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investment activity falls back; recovery remains some way off (Mar 09) …
26th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Construction Survey, 2008Q4 …
The economic outlook has deteriorated even further over the past three months. As a result, we now expect GDP to contract by 3% this year and by a further 1% in 2010. Accordingly, we have downgraded our forecast from a 45% peak-to-trough fall in capital …
17th February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Commercial Property Market Survey, 2008Q4 …
9th February 2009
