Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
As we suggested was likely to be the case, net sales of commercial property by investing institutions in the second quarter proved to be just a temporary blip. Institutions made strong net purchases in Q3 and it would be no surprise to see these inflows …
20th December 2013
Jobs growth in the financial & business services (FBS) sector was strong again in the third quarter. In fact, on past form, the data suggest that our forecast for City and West End office rents to grow by roughly 3% in 2014 could be a little pessimistic. …
18th December 2013
Although the technology, media & telecommunications sector is just one component of demand for London office space, its growth remains strong. Indeed, London now has more jobs in these “digital” activities than in core financial services. So with the …
12th December 2013
The re-focussing of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) away from mortgage lending and onto businesses, and in particular small to medium-sized enterprises, can only be a positive change for the commercial property market. In addition to underpinning …
11th December 2013
Recent yield shifts suggest that investors may have more confidence in the prospects for standard industrial rents than distribution warehouses. To us, the reverse is still more likely and distribution warehouses remain amongst the segments that we think …
4th December 2013
The latest construction PMI points to solid confidence in the outlook for occupier demand, supporting our view that 2014 will see a meaningful rental recovery. … Construction PMI (Nov.) and Mergers & Acquisitions (Q3 …
3rd December 2013
Net commercial property lending was negative again in October but, to us, the end of the deleveraging process now seems to be coming into sight. … Lending to commercial property …
29th November 2013
The latest Colliers/Real Estate Capital survey shows that investor sentiment continues to improve, with more regional and/or secondary property coming into favour. However, respondents' expectations are still pretty cautious. Indeed, the data also show …
27th November 2013
All-property yields fell a little further in October, helping capital values to rise by 0.6%m/m. This took the total gain since April to 2% and was also enough to push the year-on-year growth rate into positive territory, for the first time in 20 months. …
21st November 2013
UK markets are being supported by a favourable combination of accelerating economic growth, weakening inflation and very low interest rates. Granted, the MPC has brought forward to the third quarter of 2015 the point at which it expects the jobless rate …
20th November 2013
There were signs in IPD’s Q3 data that the recovery in secondary capital values has begun, albeit slow and not universal. Amongst the bright spots was the South East office market and, with rents now rising and yields looking high, secondary capital …
Recent industry figures show that new lease lengths ticked down again in 2012. Of course, shorter leases are nothing new. Moreover, and contrary to the tone of some commentary, growing numbers of landlords will actually be happy about this, as it will …
13th November 2013
We expect IPD all-property capital values to rise by 8% next year and 5% in 2015, well ahead of our previous forecasts and the current consensus (both about 2% per annum). The upgrades reflect the recent improvement in occupier and investor confidence, …
12th November 2013
Today's RICS data point to an emphatic rebound in occupier market confidence and activity, supporting our view that there'll be a solid rental recovery next year. … RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3 …
8th November 2013
The CIPS/Markit construction PMI suggests that confidence in the prospects for commercial property occupier demand is now firmly entrenched. IPD all-property rental values have already shown signs of a recovery in the past few months and today's data …
4th November 2013
Net new lending to commercial property was negative again in September. But lenders' exposure to property is now at its lowest level in a decade and the scope for this long period of deleveraging to end next year is surely increasing. … Lending to …
29th October 2013
All-property rental values ticked up by 0.1%m/m in September while yields edged lower. As a result, capital values rose by 0.6%m/m. That was the largest monthly gain since April 2010. But perhaps more notable was the fact that capital values rose in all …
28th October 2013
Growing numbers of investors appear to be looking beyond London and other prime markets, and for many Manchester seems to be a key target. Our top-down analysis suggests that the prospects for rents and yields in Manchester are positive, especially for …
23rd October 2013
Today's RICS Construction Survey had a distinctly positive tone, with both residential and commercial property activity reported to have risen strongly in Q3. This points to developers having confidence in the prospects for occupier demand and clearly …
22nd October 2013
Banks and building societies continue to shrink their commercial property loan books and the signs are that this process still has further to run. Admittedly, there may now be scope for the deleveraging to end a little sooner than we previously thought, …
16th October 2013
Transactions-based yields have fallen pretty sharply in recent months and, rather than technicalities to do with shifts in the mix of properties being traded, this is another sign of a genuine improvement in investor demand and market pricing. Commercial …
15th October 2013
Although there were some encouraging signs, the big picture from today’s Bank of England Credit Conditions survey was that lenders still seem nervous about expanding their residential or commercial property lending activities. But at least the rise in …
9th October 2013
Occupier confidence has finally taken a turn for the better. We think that this will accelerate the recovery in commercial property rents and prices. The consensus view is that IPD all-property capital values will increase by 2% in 2014 and again in 2015. …
8th October 2013
We suspect that the drop in financial services sector output indicated by the latest CBI/PwC survey was simply a seasonal lull and that Central London office rents will continue to grow. Moreover, strong confidence readings from this survey add to …
7th October 2013
The CIPS/Markit construction PMI suggests that commercial property developers are increasingly confident about the prospects for occupier demand and, hence, rental values. The conventional wisdom is that rents will only edge higher over the coming year, …
2nd October 2013
Net new lending to commercial property was negative again in August and the sector’s share of total outstanding debt is now only a touch above 9%, the lowest level for a decade. We think this process has further to run but will remain orderly, with …
30th September 2013
On top of a small rise in rental values, capital values were also boosted in August by a further modest fall in yields. Indeed, all-property capital values were up by 0.4%m/m, the strongest figure in more than three years. And for the first time since May …
26th September 2013
Inbound tourism volumes continue to drift upwards and many UK residents are seemingly still content to save money and take a domestic holiday rather than go abroad. This should help hotel capital values to continue to rise gradually over 2013-14, but no …
25th September 2013
UK-based investing institutions were net sellers of commercial property in Q2. But this seems more likely to be a temporary blip rather than the start of a sustained sell-off and we think the nascent commercial property recovery remains on track. … …
20th September 2013
With yields already at low levels, the pace of Central London shop capital value growth is likely to slow over the next year or so. But with rents looking well-supported, falls in capital values in either absolute or relative terms are not yet on the …
19th September 2013
The Central London office market clearly still has a significant degree of momentum and we have revised up our rental growth forecasts by two or three percentage points each year for 2013 to 2015. … The prospects for Central London office rents have …
12th September 2013
The number of financial & business services (FBS) sector jobs rose strongly again in Q2. Despite the looming spike in new Central London office development completions, this continued demand growth looks set to drive further rental value increases in the …
11th September 2013
The spike in mortgage interest rates has taken a toll on housing market activity, but we don’t expect it to knock the housing recovery off course. Nevertheless, with the inventory of homes for sale already nudging upwards, and set to rise much further …
6th September 2013
August’s CIPS/Markit PMI indicated that developers anticipate a pick-up in occupier demand in the next few quarters, while the latest mergers and acquisitions (M&A) data were also encouraging. Our central forecast is that all-property rents will only edge …
3rd September 2013
Net lending to commercial property was particularly weak in July, although we would be very wary of jumping to the conclusion that banks have abandoned forbearance. Indeed, we suspect that further deleveraging will be slow and steady, not preventing a …
30th August 2013
While yields on gilts have continued to track those on US Treasuries closely, some decoupling is still possible. For one, both central banks have tied their monetary policy to the unemployment rate, and we believe that joblessness will fall faster in the …
28th August 2013
We recently revised up our GDP forecasts for both this year and next. Although it is tempting to conclude that commercial property occupier demand and rental values will be correspondingly stronger, things may not be quite that simple. Nevertheless, all …
Despite flat rents, a further small fall in yields in July was enough for all-property capital values to tick up by 0.2%m/m, the second such rise in a row. Meanwhile, investment market activity was strong, albeit boosted once again by purchases of …
23rd August 2013
The pace of employment growth has slowed in several regions over the past few months but picked up in Scotland and the North West. Other factors such as existing vacancy rates are obviously relevant, but, at least at face value, the jobs data suggest that …
21st August 2013
Despite anecdotal evidence that the regions are coming back into focus, the latest commercial property transactions data suggest that London continues to take most of investors’ attention. Without much broader-based investor demand, the emerging recovery …
15th August 2013
Our central commercial property forecasts are unchanged from the previous Analyst . The recovery has begun and, driven both by gradually rising rents and gently falling yields, we expect all-property capital values to increase by about 3% over the next …
13th August 2013
Corporate bond yield spreads are currently pretty low in an historical context and suggest that there are few fears about the viability of UK firms. At the margin, this is another reason to think that investor sentiment in the commercial property market …
9th August 2013
The continued improvement in consumer-related economic indicators clearly bodes well for retail property rents, with the recent lack of new development raising the scope for hotspots to emerge outside London too. But with a broad-based occupier demand …
6th August 2013
Both Q2’s RICS commercial property survey and July’s CIPS/Markit construction PMI had a positive tone and add to a range of other evidence that the next move in rents will be upwards. Of course, with existing vacancy rates still elevated, it is likely …
2nd August 2013
Net new lending to commercial property was negative for the 19th consecutive month in June and we do not think that the end of the deleveraging process is in sight yet. But with wider sentiment improving, sluggish lending activity will not be enough to …
29th July 2013
Initial yields edged down in June. Combined with the small rise in rental values, this was enough for all-property capital values to increase by 0.2%m/m. This was the first significant increase in capital values in two years. There is plenty of scope for …
25th July 2013
The balance of surveyors reporting rising workloads in the private commercial and industrial sub-sectors of the construction industry hit a four-and-a-half year high in the second quarter. This suggests that confidence in the outlook for commercial …
24th July 2013
July’s Colliers/Real Estate capital pricing survey suggests that investor interest in regional and secondary property is hardening. Not surprisingly, therefore, the survey’s forecasts for commercial property capital values have been revised higher. … …
23rd July 2013
Given recent outperformance by consumer-related sectors of the economy, it is little surprise that distribution warehouse property has also fared relatively well. Granted, rents in the sector are yet to rise materially. But availability is falling and we …
18th July 2013
To us, the prospects for consumer spending on leisure services remain pretty good and anecdotal evidence certainly suggests that institutional buyers are increasingly targeting leisure property. We expect leisure returns over 2013-15 to be comfortably …
15th July 2013
