Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
Today’s data releases covering construction sector activity and mergers & acquisitions (M&A) deals do nothing to challenge our forecast for a steady improvement in rental value growth over the rest of the year. … Construction PMI (May 14) and Mergers & …
3rd June 2014
Net commercial property lending flows were negative again in April. But April’s fall was the smallest since June last year. Indeed, there is little doubt that a gradual improvement in credit conditions has begun and we wouldn’t be surprised to see net …
2nd June 2014
The latest IPF Consensus survey envisages that commercial property rents and capital values will grow steadily over the next two to three years. But some forecasters seem to be growing more concerned about the threat to property yields posed by the …
30th May 2014
The latest De Montfort University (DMU) survey reports that lenders have now largely dealt with their legacy debt issues and that credit is becoming more widely available. However, the survey also suggested that the availability of development finance is …
27th May 2014
As the economic recovery broadens, we think that the commercial property market will follow suit. But while some indicators suggest that activity and confidence in the Midlands and the North are improving, other data show that the North/South divide has …
23rd May 2014
There was a 0.1%m/m increase in all-property rental values in April, causing the annual growth rate to edge up from 1.2% to 1.3%. Retail rents continue to struggle, but, by contrast, the office sector recovery is accelerating. Perhaps of most note in …
22nd May 2014
A recent modest sell-off by overseas investors in UK commercial property may well prove to be a blip. But even if it does signal the start of a new weaker trend, demand from UK-based investing institutions is strengthening and should help to underpin …
14th May 2014
Reflecting an upgrade to our medium-term Central London office rent expectations, our forecast for all-property capital value growth in 2014 has risen from 8% to 9%, and for 2015 from 5% to about 5.5%. But rather than small forecast changes, the main …
13th May 2014
Occupier demand in London’s City and West End office markets has exceeded our expectations in recent quarters. And the outlook for demand is also positive. This will eventually prompt a supply response, but that can’t happen immediately. Our upgraded …
8th May 2014
The latest RICS survey painted a picture of increasingly robust occupier demand for commercial property in all sectors, with industrial faring particularly well. To be fair, the survey also showed that developers have begun to mount a widespread supply …
7th May 2014
Today’s RICS and CIPS/Markit releases confirm that the commercial property occupier market recovery continues to get stronger and is increasingly broad-based. … RICS Property Survey (Q1) & CIPS/Markit construction PMI …
2nd May 2014
The run of negative, net commercial property lending flows extended to 28 months in March. But we suspect that, within the net figure, gross new lending by banks and building societies will be slowly improving. Meanwhile, other lenders, such as insurance …
1st May 2014
Commercial property development activity continues to rise strongly and every region is contributing to the expansion. This is another signal of a positive outlook. … RICS Construction Survey (Q1 …
24th April 2014
March saw IPD all-property rental values tick up by 0.1%m/m, the seventh consecutive increase of at least that amount. Moreover, the recovery is increasingly widespread. Certainly, office and industrial rents are on a firm upwards trend, while it seems …
23rd April 2014
Given the overhangs of empty space, we don’t think shopping centre rents are about to surge. But occupier market conditions are nevertheless improving and investor demand for shopping centres has recently shown stronger signs of a recovery. We are …
17th April 2014
Jobs growth in the financial & business services (FBS) sector at the end of 2013 was very strong. New office completions will weigh a little on City and West End rents this year, but strong demand will keep them on a firm upwards path. … Financial and …
16th April 2014
Distribution warehouse rents have not picked up as quickly over the past year or so as we thought they would. But output in the distributive trade sector of the economy is growing strongly and tenant demand for warehouse space is healthy. The upshot is …
11th April 2014
Offshoring in the services sector hasn’t obviously undermined office demand or rents and so it is difficult to see any benefits now from a reverse process of reshoring. But the positive impact for industrial occupier demand of manufacturing reshoring …
8th April 2014
In both the residential and commercial property sectors, credit supply and demand are rising. However, those looking to secure a mortgage may find things more difficult over the next few months, with lenders planning to tighten credit scoring criteria and …
3rd April 2014
The CIPS/Markit construction PMI showed that growth in commercial property development was strong again in March. This signals healthy confidence in the outlook for occupier demand. Indeed, the risks to our forecast for a 2% gain in all-property rents in …
2nd April 2014
The latest Colliers/Real Estate Capital (REC) survey confirms that the strong recovery in non-prime property segments has continued in the first few months of 2014. It also highlighted some concerns about the sustainability of low Central London office …
1st April 2014
Net property lending by banks and building societies in February was the least negative since June last year. Although we shouldn’t read too much into one month’s data, this is another sign that lenders’ willingness to advance new commercial property …
31st March 2014
All-property rental values increased by 0.1%m/m in February, enough to boost the annual growth rate to 1%. That was the best figure since August 2008. The office rental recovery continues to lead, but the industrial upturn is also increasingly …
28th March 2014
February’s drop in CPI inflation does nothing to reduce the overhang of vacant retail space or the challenges of meeting consumers’ changing shopping habits. But it does bring the end of the squeeze on real incomes and, potentially, an end to the retail …
26th March 2014
It is tempting to view the recent spike in capital values in the South East office market as a sign of overheating. Yet the gains to date seem consistent with rapidly improving occupier market conditions and do nothing to alter our view that the recovery …
20th March 2014
Official data confirm that institutional demand for UK commercial property assets ended last year on a high. However, more timely data suggest that 2014 has got off to a quieter start. Nevertheless, with the economic recovery set to continue, investment …
19th March 2014
Data from the Bank of England show that banks and building societies are continuing to scale back their exposure to the property sector at a rapid rate. But a growing body of survey and anecdotal evidence suggests that gross lending volumes are also now …
13th March 2014
London’s share of commercial property transactions slumped to a four-year low in Q4 last year. But rather than a sign of problems in the London market, which in fact remains buoyant, the data serve to emphasise how rapidly confidence in regional and …
10th March 2014
Today’s PMI showed that commercial property construction growth slowed a little in February. But it is still growing rapidly and suggests that developers are very confident about the prospects for occupier demand and rents. … Construction PMI (Feb.) and …
4th March 2014
Net property lending by banks and building societies remains negative. But we suspect this is only because distressed stock is finally being sold and the debt repaid. Indeed, with anecdotal evidence suggesting that gross new lending is rising and that …
3rd March 2014
Respondents to the latest IPF Consensus survey more or less doubled their projections for capital value growth this year, reflecting a view that yields will fall more quickly than previously thought. Respondents then expect rental growth to take over as …
28th February 2014
We doubt that UK asset prices will be undermined significantly by the onset of tighter monetary policy in the UK or overseas. Admittedly, history suggests otherwise – the global monetary tightening cycle that began after the early 1990s recession resulted …
27th February 2014
Investment market activity made a slightly subdued start to 2014, but at least part of this looks likely to have been due to some deals having been “pulled forward” into December. Either way, we think January’s figure will prove to be nothing more than a …
24th February 2014
As we had been anticipating, non-prime property has started to outperform prime. Our forecast is that average non-prime capital values rise by 10% this year and about 6% in 2015. That will be stronger than the gains for prime property of about 5% each …
20th February 2014
Anecdotal evidence suggests that, in general, the worst has passed for retail occupier markets. This is yet to become absolutely apparent in the IPD data, but at least more segments are now recording rental gains than a year ago. And with the consumer …
19th February 2014
Our view is that Bank Rate is on hold until late next year. But even if that is wrong and the monetary policy tightening cycle begins this year, market interest rates and the health of the economy matter much more for commercial property than Bank Rate. …
13th February 2014
The commercial property market is in something of a “sweet spot” at present, with improved investor confidence and low interest rates supportive of yield falls, and the growing economy likely to kick-start a rental value recovery. After an increase of 4% …
11th February 2014
Recent data suggest that occupier demand for industrial property is recovering at least as strongly and widely as for the other sectors. Although there are signs that developers are already planning a supply response, there is scope for 2014 to see the …
5th February 2014
The CIPS/Markit construction PMI suggests that, in January, commercial property developers expanded their workloads at the fastest pace in more than six years. Clearly, developers are confident about the prospects for occupier demand and rental growth and …
4th February 2014
Net commercial property lending by banks and building societies was negative again in December. But there are signs that this long phase of deleveraging is coming to a close, and positive net lending later this year would not be a surprise. … Lending to …
30th January 2014
Today’s RICS survey showed that the occupier market recovery now encompasses all sectors and regions, pointing to healthy gains in rents this year. … RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4 …
28th January 2014
All-property rental values rose by 0.25%m/m in December, the fourth rise in a row and the largest since November 2007. Offices and industrial property are faring best, but there are also signs that a floor for rents may be in sight for the long-struggling …
23rd January 2014
The tone of the latest CBI/PwC Financial Services survey was very positive and bodes well for the Central London office market in 2014. Although strong supply growth will tend to be a restraint on rental values, the survey suggests that we could be too …
20th January 2014
Commercial property transactions activity was strong in 2013 but, rather than the headline deals total, we think that the return of UK-based institutions to the investment market was more noteworthy. We expect institutions to remain active this year, …
16th January 2014
Our expectations for GDP growth this year have been revised up and are well above consensus. However, our expectations for commercial property rental growth over 2014-15 (an average of more than 2.5%y/y) are already as strong as any other forecaster’s …
13th January 2014
The latest RICS survey indicates the construction sector recovery is gathering pace, with private housebuilding and commercial property development leading the way. … RICS Construction Survey (Q4 …
10th January 2014
The tone of the latest Credit Conditions survey was positive, with the supply of and demand for credit rising in both the residential and commercial property sectors in Q4 last year. But lenders seem to be more circumspect about how activity may pan out …
8th January 2014
The short history of the Lloyds commercial property confidence survey tends to limit its usefulness as a guide for the physical market. Even so, the latest results were positive and, combined with encouraging data from Lloyds’ wider business sentiment …
7th January 2014
Net commercial property lending remained negative in November last year, but it would be no surprise to see nascent signs of a fresh pick-up by the end of this year. Elsewhere, the latest construction PMI suggests that commercial property developers …
3rd January 2014
For the third month in a row, November saw all-property rental values tick up by 0.1%m/m. Clearly these are modest gains. But rental growth should accelerate next year as a more broad-based occupier recovery commences. Indeed, there are already signs that …
23rd December 2013
