Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Commercial Property Use setting UK Commercial Property
Property has generally been at the centre of the most severe economic downturns in recent decades. But this time it is different. Although we think the commercial market is likely to experience a sharp jolt in 2020, provided the spread of the virus can be …
26th March 2020
Our latest UK economic downgrades mean that it is now inevitable that there will be a big hit to commercial property values, which we expect to fall by around 10% this year. And while conditions are different to the GFC and the shock should be short and …
20th March 2020
In recent years, industrial rental growth for Rest of South East has exceeded growth in Rest of UK. We think that this has been driven by land constraints and changing occupier demand patterns, which are unlikely to change in the near future and will keep …
16th March 2020
The suspension of business rates for many retail, leisure and hospitality firms announced in the Budget is welcome, but unlikely to provide much relief to the retail sector. Indeed, the coronavirus will drag on the economy this year and the benefits of …
13th March 2020
Coronavirus-related market trauma has not only caused a correction in equity and oil prices, but also pushed UK bond yields to new lows. This has created the potential for lower property yields, but in the current uncertainty, we still think they are …
11th March 2020
The recent market meltdown reflects concerns about the economic impact of the COVID-19 virus. This will inevitably hit commercial property, but in our view, the downside is likely to be relatively modest. The spread of the coronavirus from Asia into …
6th March 2020
Sharp rise in construction output The IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI pointed to the strongest rise in construction since December 2018. This was driven by improvements in both commercial property and housing. But with the economic outlook weak and …
3rd March 2020
In light of the accelerating spread of the coronavirus – and the economic disruption that is likely to follow – we are pulling down our GDP growth forecasts for Q1 and Q2 of this year. Growth is likely to rebound over the second half of the year, but most …
2nd March 2020
A rise in all-property yields caused capital values to decline by 3% y/y in January. Although we expect yields to rise and rents to edge lower in the months ahead, the rate of decline in capital values is set to slow later this year. Economic indicators …
Net lending remains unspectacular As expected, net property lending at the start of this year was relatively weak. The notable slowdown in lending to standing investment weighed on overall net lending to commercial property. We think a fall in capital …
Total returns outlook strengthens in the near term February’s IPF Consensus Forecasts were revised higher, given the increased certainty surrounding Brexit. As such, the consensus expects stronger returns for this year, but this was offset by slightly …
28th February 2020
Overview – A subdued economic outlook and continued contraction in retail are expected to weigh on all-property rents and returns this year. In the near-term, rising property yields will be the result of the ongoing correction in the retail sector this …
20th February 2020
The latest MSCI data confirmed the gloom in UK commercial property showed no signs of abating during Q4 2019. But one of the few surprises was that City offices did better than expected, mirroring a pick-up in sentiment since the election. While we don’t …
14th February 2020
We think the financial markets will be caught out this year by a decent acceleration in the quarterly rate of GDP growth preventing interest rates from being cut below 0.75%. And if we are right to assume that the UK and the EU will reach a fudge or …
12th February 2020
A reduction in Chinese tourism as a result of the coronavirus will lead to lower spending on prime high streets, particularly in Rome, Paris and London. If tourism reduces on a global scale, the impact on spending would be greater. But so long as the …
4th February 2020
Construction output falls at slower pace The IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI pointed towards a slower decline in construction in January 2020. Improved balances in commercial property, civil engineering and housing signalled a post-election bounce, but …
Net lending to property falls for first time since January 2019 A large fall in development lending weighed on net lending in December. We expect net lending will remain weak this year as all-property capital values continue to decline and uncertainty …
31st January 2020
No sign of the retail downturn easing The RICS survey showed that occupier demand and investment enquiries remained negative in 2019 Q4, though there was a slight improvement on Q3, outside of retail at least. The outlook for both rents and capital values …
30th January 2020
Annual returns were just 2.1% in December, the lowest monthly figure since 2010. A marginal rise in yields in the retail sector caused all-property capital values to fall in December and was exacerbated by a slight fall in all-property rental values. (See …
29th January 2020
Improved optimism, but development expected to remain weak Despite an improvement in sentiment in 2019 Q4, with commercial property values predicted to fall this year and lending conditions tight, a strong rebound in construction activity is unlikely. The …
23rd January 2020
Although the share of global capital raised by European-focused funds has reduced in the last couple of years, there are indications that investors are starting to view real estate in Europe as increasingly attractive. This supports our view that demand …
20th January 2020
Against a weak outlook for both commercial property returns and the UK economy, any upside for development remains limited in 2020. After plummeting post-EU-referendum, there were signs of a stabilisation in development activity a year ago, though we …
17th January 2020
Commercial and residential credit availability diverges Mortgage availability rose in Q4, as competition between lenders picked up. But with banks competing on price, rather than lowering their credit standards, we think the housing market fundamentals …
16th January 2020
There is no denying that last year was a disappointing one for commercial property, with returns likely to be at a decade low. While we do expect some improvement this year, we believe that the outlook will remain highly uncertain as the market deals with …
10th January 2020
Following relatively weak all-property returns last year, we expect that 2020 will see an improvement as the retail downturn bottoms out later in the year. Despite this, even a positive return of around 4% will be well behind what is expected for …
9th January 2020
Slowing net lending to property expected to continue As expected, net lending to property was relatively weak in November in the run up to UK election. Despite a decisive result in the poll, we don’t think there will be much of an improvement in the …
3rd January 2020
Construction ends 2019 on a weak note The headline construction PMI numbers ended 2019 with a whimper, as November’s improvement was reversed. The survey pointed to falling output for most of last year and, despite a post-election easing of uncertainty, …
The election of a Conservative government with a large majority is likely to mean a slightly improved commercial property outlook. While we do not expect a post-election rebound, lower interest rates and a slightly better rental outlook will bring less …
24th December 2019
The marginal increase in rental values in November was not enough to prevent capital values from falling on an annual basis. Indeed, the impact of rising yields, particularly in the retail sector, caused all-property capital values to fall by 2.9% y/y. …
20th December 2019
Recent mass retail fund outflows are not good news for the beleaguered UK commercial property market. In our view, this trend is not surprising given declining returns and, while we see downside to our forecasts if outflows don’t stabilise post-election, …
12th December 2019
Assuming a Brexit deal is agreed by the 31st January, the improved economic outlook is unlikely to support a rebound in commercial property investment in 2020. Indeed, we predict that a rise in yields will cause capital values to fall next year. And given …
6th December 2019
Given that employment growth has probably peaked, we expect office occupier demand to slow further over the next year or so, which will act as a drag on rental value growth. But the labour market may not be as tight as it first appears, so the risks to …
5th December 2019
In view of the wider interest, this UK Housing Market Focus is made available to clients of the UK Commercial Property service as well. Relative to past norms, returns on residential property will underperform over the next few years. But with commercial …
Construction falls for seventh consecutive month November’s headline construction PMI increased from last month, which pointed towards the slowest decline in construction output since July. Nevertheless, it continues to point to a deterioration. The …
3rd December 2019
After a sustained upturn in commercial property, yields are well below their historic lows and there are concerns that the current cycle could end as badly as previous ones. But we don’t think a crash is likely yet. Nonetheless, while we expect a rare …
2nd December 2019
Total returns outlook for next year weakens The November’s IPF Consensus survey highlighted a weakening in the property outlook in the next year, though compensated by some improvement in 2021. Despite this, we think they are still too upbeat about …
29th November 2019
Net lending expected to slow Net lending to property was relatively weak in October. And we don’t expect much of an improvement over the coming months as all-property capital values continue to decline and interest rates look likely to increase. Net …
Capital values have been falling since late 2018 (See Chart 1.) This has led by declining retail capital values and slowing growth in office and industrial. We expect that all-property yields will continue to rise next year, driving further declines in …
22nd November 2019
Overview – Regardless of the outcome of the election and Brexit, we expect all-property returns to be weak over coming years. Indeed, even if a deal is secured and economic growth picks up, we expect weakness in the retail sector to weigh on all-property …
13th November 2019
As the markets have not fully priced in the Conservatives winning the general election on 12 th December and securing a Brexit deal, if that were to happen we suspect the pound would climb from $1.28 now to $1.35, 10-year gilt yields could rise from 0.76% …
Concern over prolonged Brexit uncertainty The deterioration in workload expectations is consistent with the fact that, with Brexit uncertainty prolonged and commercial property values expected to fall, a strong increase in the construction activity is …
7th November 2019
With Brexit delayed and a general election ahead, all our Brexit scenarios remain on the table. However, recent developments mean that, under each scenario, we think that all-property capital values will fall by less than previously expected, but most …
5th November 2019
First increase in four months, but no recovery in sight October’s headline construction PMI increased for the first time in four months. But it continues to point to a deterioration in construction activity. Further, with Brexit-uncertainty prolonged, a …
4th November 2019
Activity weighed down by uncertainty and retail weakness The RICS survey adds to the picture that weakness in the retail sector and Brexit-related uncertainty will continue to weigh on all-property rental values over coming quarters. The RICS Commercial …
31st October 2019
Upward trend in net lending not likely to continue We don’t expect the recent strength of net lending to property to be sustained as demand for credit is likely to be held back by falling all-property capital values and higher lending costs. Following an …
29th October 2019
This rise in all-property rental value growth in September was not enough to prevent capital values falling on an annual basis for the fifth consecutive month. (See Chart 1.) The fact that the chance of a no deal Brexit has reduced is positive for the …
25th October 2019
In the near-term, we think that the ongoing consequences of CVAs and the large share of over-rented property will exacerbate the structural reduction in demand for retail property, causing rental values to fall sharply. But, with consumer demand expected …
The financial woes of WeWork have cast doubts over its long-run future and, given the reliance of the London office market on the co-working trailblazer, on the property outlook. In our view, this is a real concern, but it is unlikely to be the hammer …
21st October 2019
We expect weak global growth to keep a lid on UK tourist flows. And with yields most likely to continue to rise, hotel capital values are likely to fall over the next few years. A weak global economy and ongoing Brexit uncertainty weighed on tourist flows …
18th October 2019
Lenders continue to tighten credit A weaker economic outlook and stronger risk aversion among lenders led banks to tighten credit availability in Q3. What’s more, lending to commercial property was also reined in. According the Bank of England’s Credit …
17th October 2019
