Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
After gaining ground since 2018, the recovery in Athens’ prime property values has stalled. However, we think that the catch up with the euro-zone will continue, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years. Athens’ prime property values have recovered …
6th July 2021
Lingering restrictions on travel mean that weakness in foreign tourist spending will continue to weigh on retailers’ incomes in tourist-dependent retail markets this year. This supports our view that prime retail rents will fall, even as the domestic …
1st July 2021
Tighter supply conditions and the expected smaller hit from the shift to remote working mean that we think Paris office rents will continue to outperform Lyon over the next five years. Prior to the pandemic, Lyon prime office rental growth had outpaced …
30th June 2021
Overview – With virus restrictions set to be eased further, we expect the recovery in economic activity to gather pace from Q3, which should give occupier markets a lift. But the pick-up will not be enough to prevent falls in office and retail rents this …
25th June 2021
Overview – With the recovery in economic activity already underway and further easing in virus restrictions to come, the outlook for occupier demand is encouraging. However, with structural factors also at play, this is likely to provide more support to …
24th June 2021
Overview – The easing of virus restrictions has brightened the economic outlook and prospects for occupier markets. And with rises in inflation expected to be temporary, we think monetary policy will remain highly accommodative over the next five years, …
18th June 2021
Recent strong inflation data have heightened concerns about global price pressures. At present, we think there will be limited impact on short-term property performance. Further out though, higher inflation expectations reinforce the view that bond yields …
16th June 2021
With emission targets needing to be met by 2030, the race is on for the real estate sector to decarbonise. By forcing tenants and landlords to share the risks, benefits and costs of environmental policies, green commercial leases are a promising tool, and …
10th June 2021
Our expectation for more aggressive monetary tightening in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the subsequent upward pressure on bond yields mean that we now expect property yields to rise by more from 2023. With inflation in the region running hot and …
7th June 2021
T he latest IPF Consensus forecasts are consistent with our view that prime office rents will fall this year and the recovery in 2022 will be weak, even as the easing of virus restrictions allows economic activity to rebound. However, outside of Emerging …
3rd June 2021
The marked rise in government bond yields drove a deterioration in property valuations in Q1, particularly in industrial markets where property yields also fell steeply. (See Chart 1.) And with government bond yields edging up further in Q2, valuations …
2nd June 2021
Capital value growth improved in Scandinavia and Switzerland in Q1, helped by the easing of virus restrictions and by the improvement in economic activity towards the end of the quarter. The uptick in the pace of Scandinavian industrial capital value …
28th May 2021
The fall in all-property rents, dragged down by office and retail sectors, meant that annual capital value growth remained in negative territory in Q1, despite the surprise fall in yields. (See Chart 1.) Looking ahead, while the faster pace of the …
26th May 2021
With the faster pace of vaccination paving the way for a rebound in economic activity, the prospects for occupier markets have improved. However, structural changes mean that the recovery in the office and retail sectors will be gradual. In contrast, we …
20th May 2021
Last year, rents held up better in Barcelona’s CBD, and we expect this trend to continue this year. That said, higher rents in the CBD mean that they are also likely to be hit harder from the shift to remote working and associated reductions in office …
13th May 2021
As the recovery in occupier demand gets underway, we think that the low amounts of vacant modern space, limited supply pipeline and comparatively cheap rents will mean that prime office rental growth in Hamburg outperforms the other main German markets in …
11th May 2021
Following stronger than expected Q1 data, we have revised up our rental forecast for 2021. And Prague’s low costs and constrained supply means that we think rental growth has further to go this year. Following an increase of 0.5% last year, we had …
6th May 2021
More working from home will inevitably change cities as we know them. However, cities are more than just workers. This means that cities where a higher share of jobs can be done remotely are not necessarily the ones where the impact of remote working on …
5th May 2021
Recent developments add weight to our view that Stockholm office values will rise by more than most other western European markets over the 2021-25 period. However, even in Stockholm, these gains will be much weaker than in recent years. In our latest set …
29th April 2021
The poor near-term economic backdrop means that occupier activity will remain weak this year. But we think that the tightness in supply will prevent office rents from falling and support rental growth beyond this year. The latest data take-up data show …
28th April 2021
With retailers in Belgium set to remain under pressure due to shifts in spending, we think that prime high street rents will extend their falls this year. And with e-commerce remaining a dark cloud over retail, the recovery in rents beyond this year will …
21st April 2021
The expected rebound in economic activity in H2, continued growth in online sales and constrained supply outlook should allow prime industrial rents in the main four markets to return to growth by the end of the year. However, we expect occupiers opting …
20th April 2021
Initial demand indicators support our view of further falls in Dublin office rents this year. And with construction on hold, spill overs from delayed completions could threaten the rental recovery. CBRE data for Q1 showed that weak economic activity and …
14th April 2021
The faster-than-expected timetable to ease virus restrictions, limited supply pipeline in central areas and confirmation that home working has not increased significantly from its pre-virus levels suggest that office vacancy in Copenhagen will peak later …
13th April 2021
Few office or retail markets currently look economically viable for residential conversions. However, expected falls in values, particularly for retail, and acute housing shortages suggest that there is scope for conversions to increase in many markets. …
9th April 2021
After declining in 2021, we think that favourable supply conditions and a rebound in consumer spending will support a recovery in Budapest retail rents into next year. And while the sharp increase in online shopping last year suggests a downside risk to …
8th April 2021
Travel restrictions will hold back cross-border capital flows until at least H2. And given that we expect extra-European capital to return particularly slowly, total investment is set to recover gradually in 2021. With travel restrictions tight for most …
1st April 2021
Despite a more supportive outlook for property valuations, we think that weaker rental prospects will result in southern European property markets continuing to underperform into 2022. Last year we highlighted that southern European property would …
30th March 2021
Overview – Following a year marked with sharp falls in retail rents and rising retail and office yields, the next few months for property values will continue to be dismal. We have pencilled in another drop in all-property capital values this year. With …
26th March 2021
Overview – The Swiss and Scandinavian economies and their property markets are likely to weather the pandemic better than many others in Western Europe. We expect all-property values in the region to hold steady or see small falls this year. However, even …
25th March 2021
Thanks to changing consumption patterns and structural and cyclical knocks to the traditional property sectors, both occupier and investor demand for data centres set new records last year. But, while further strong growth is likely, we don’t expect these …
19th March 2021
Overview – Euro-zone prime property will likely get off more mildly than many expected at the start of the pandemic. We forecast another small fall in all-property capital values this year, with yields holding steady and rental values extending their …
18th March 2021
Given that the natural vacancy rate (NVR) provides a better gauge of office market conditions than the absolute vacancy rate, we set out to estimate the NVR across European office markets. Future market conditions implied by our NVR estimates are broadly …
11th March 2021
With bond and equity dividend yields trending lower, valuations improved in Q4 for offices and retail, while they held steady for industrial. But in Q1, given the recent bond market rout, valuations are likely to deteriorate. (See Chart 1.) That said, the …
8th March 2021
Recent rises in government bond yields do not change our view that office and industrial yields will edge down a bit further in the next year or two. In fact, we don’t expect broad-based upward pressure on property yields until after 2023. Following the …
2nd March 2021
In light of our latest long-term economic and financial market forecasts, we have revisited our views for commercial property performance over the next three decades. We think that average returns will be lower than in the recent past, but that property …
1st March 2021
While virus restrictions have weighed on retail markets across Europe, the hit has been particularly severe in CEE. Indeed, core-CEE prime retail rents fell by an eye-watering 20% last year, the sharpest drop since our series began in 2007. (See Chart 1.) …
23rd February 2021
Office and industrial yields edged lower in Q4 as the recovery in Scandinavian investment took hold. (See Chart 1.) However, the pandemic continued to weigh on occupiers, with retail rents declining further in most markets and office rents taking a hit in …
22nd February 2021
Following the decline in 2020, we think prime office rents in Amsterdam will hold steady this year. But rental growth should pick up thereafter, supported by continued growth in the information and communication sector, comparatively low rents and the …
17th February 2021
Despite the sharp hit to economic activity, euro-zone prime commercial property values were comparatively unscathed last year, falling by just 2%. (See Chart 1.) However, this hides large differences in performance across the sectors. Indeed, industrial …
16th February 2021
We think that prolonged weakness in domestic and foreign spending on prime high streets in Italy will add to pressure on rental affordability, triggering rental falls this year. However, a less significant increase in online penetration during the …
12th February 2021
We think that past movements in Czech bond yields mean that they are less appropriate to use in our valuation calculations. Using alternative bond benchmarks, re-calculated metrics support the view that industrial yields can fall further while office …
11th February 2021
In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most real estate is clustered. We think it is premature to …
4th February 2021
Given its significant office supply pipeline, we have revised down our rental forecast for Warsaw offices this year despite a recovery in the labour market. And while we expect rents to pick up in 2022, we think that the shift to remote working will keep …
3rd February 2021
Differences in rental prospects and risk premia confirm our view that, despite looking overvalued compared to government bond yields, there is still scope for larger falls in industrial yields in the German markets compared to most southern European …
1st February 2021
A healthy economic backdrop, favourable supply conditions and the potential for a post-Brexit boost mean that we forecast Dublin industrial rents to keep growing at around 2% p.a. over the coming years. 2020 proved to be yet another solid year for …
28th January 2021
Although much of 2020’s fall in Norwegian government bond yields has been reversed, we think that improving economic activity and supportive valuations will allow prime office yields to reach new historic lows this year. Despite the hit to economic …
25th January 2021
Despite the softness in occupier activity, prime office rents in the French capital grew at a healthy pace in 2020. And with the labour market set to recover in the second half of this year and a tight supply picture, we think that Paris rental growth has …
21st January 2021
Although rental growth prospects for prime property are weak compared to recent years, the outlook is better than for secondary property. As such, we think that investors will continue to focus on prime assets this year, allowing prime office and …
18th January 2021
Recent movements in the REIT market add weight to our view that structural factors, rather than cyclical ones, will determine the outlook for property markets over the coming years. In turn, irrespective of a successful vaccine rollout, the recovery in …
14th January 2021
