Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
The pandemic-driven boost in scientific research and development will support demand in the European life science sector, at least for the next few years. This bodes well for several markets we forecast, including Warsaw and Copenhagen. The shift to more …
20th December 2021
Overview – With the recovery running out of steam and the emergence of the Omicron variant posing a downside risk, the economic backdrop is likely to provide less support to the property recovery over the coming quarters . Nevertheless, we think that both …
16th December 2021
The rapid bounce-back in the US economy along with still-loose monetary policy will drive continued strong performance in real estate in 2022, when we expect returns to exceed 12%. That would see the US outperform the UK and euro-zone by 5%-pts and 3%-pts …
15th December 2021
Overview – The near-term economic outlook has weakened, though GDP in the region had already surpassed its pre-virus levels by Q3. Meanwhile, inflation is set to fall back next year, allowing most central banks to keep interest rates on hold. While the …
14th December 2021
Overview – The near-term economic outlook has weakened, with the Omicron variant posing further downside risk. Meanwhile, inflation is likely to be higher for longer. However, we expect it to fall back by 2023, allowing interest rates to remain low. This …
9th December 2021
After surprising on the upside this year, we think that the broad-based decline in Central and Eastern European (CEE) property yields will continue in 2022, albeit at a more modest pace. But with higher bond yields eventually weighing on valuations, we …
30th November 2021
Higher alternative asset yields and falls in office and industrial yields contributed to a further deterioration in property valuations in Q3. (See Chart 1.) The decline in government bond yields since then, which has been reinforced by concerns about the …
29th November 2021
The rebound in economic activity and robust investor demand paved the way for a continued improvement in Scandinavian and Swiss property markets in Q3. Office and industrial values rose further, as strong competition pushed down yields. (See Chart 1.) …
23rd November 2021
CEE property values completed the final leg of their recovery in Q3, fully reversing the nearly 5.5% peak-to-trough drop in 2020. With rents barely moving on the quarter, falls in yields did all the heavy lifting in driving capital values higher. CEE …
22nd November 2021
The recovery in euro-zone commercial property values picked up in Q3, supported by a small fall in yields and an improvement in the pace of rental growth. While retail rents held steady, the quarterly rise in both office and industrial rents was the …
16th November 2021
The IPF Consensus forecasts for euro-zone prime office rental growth in 2021 have been revised up, consistent with the more positive recent data. However, expectations were revised down slightly for the next couple of years. Even so, we still have a more …
15th November 2021
A healthy occupier backdrop and a shortage of supply should allow prime industrial rents in the Netherlands to continue to grow at a steady pace over the coming years. As a result, after years of underperformance, our forecasts leave Dutch rental growth …
11th November 2021
The latest data show that conditions in the German retail sector are improving. Nevertheless, we think vacancy will be slow to reverse as pandemic shifts lead to weakness in in-store demand, particularly in Frankfurt and Munich. Following the pandemic …
8th November 2021
While the latest virus outbreak has clouded the near-term outlook, a tight supply picture and steady employment growth mean that prime Moscow office rents should return to growth in 2022. Preliminary data revealed that, following a collapse in occupier …
4th November 2021
Europeans are returning to cities, though the return to offices has been much slower and this has had negative effects on city retail. Looking ahead, weaker demand for office and retail will weigh on performance in cities with large concentrations of …
2nd November 2021
The Q3 investment data indicate that activity could be slightly stronger this year than we had expected. However, with the economic recovery topping out and structural headwinds limiting investment in the office and retail sectors, we think commercial …
28th October 2021
We expect steady French industrial rental growth over the next few years on the back of a solid economic backdrop and more online shopping. That said, if construction costs and land constraints become more acute, there is a risk that rents climb higher …
25th October 2021
After a fall this year, we expect Warsaw retail rents to return to growth in 2022. That said, the city’s reliance on office workers means that the shift to remote working will weigh on retail spending and keep a lid on rental growth. Following …
21st October 2021
Prime office rental growth in Germany is on track to be stronger than forecast in the near term. However, we think rental growth will slow in the coming years as the supply of modern space is expected to continue to outpace demand, even accounting for a …
20th October 2021
Despite strong demand, we think that high capital values have kept development profitable and have prevented an acceleration in euro-zone prime industrial rental value growth. However, as capital value growth slows there is a risk that some markets will …
15th October 2021
The latest MSCI data show that the wider market has moved roughly in line with our prime data since the onset of the pandemic and provide support to our outlook for property values. The recent release of MSCI’s Pan-European Index for Q2 provides a good …
14th October 2021
We think a greater reliance on foreign capital and tighter monetary conditions will leave CEE investment activity lagging the euro-zone in H2. Overall, transactions are set to end the year 5% lower than their already weak 2020 levels, before catching up …
8th October 2021
The pandemic and widespread use of remote working appeared to entice some Europeans to leave cities last year. However, the recent improvement in city mobility adds evidence to our view that this would prove short-lived, as cities remain attractive for a …
7th October 2021
Rising government bond yields are set to squeeze valuations, resulting in increases in Oslo all-property yields after 2022. This will weigh on returns for Oslo property in the coming years, with structural headwinds limiting the extent to which rental …
30th September 2021
It is an under-statement to say that house prices have weathered the pandemic well; housing markets are positively booming. Yet the drivers of this rise in prices are rather different to those of the pre-2007 housing boom, meaning that we do not seem to …
28th September 2021
The positive near-term economic picture means that Bucharest industrial activity will maintain its momentum in H2, but ease further out as spending patterns normalise. But given the city’s large supply pipeline, we expect industrial rents to barely grow …
27th September 2021
Overview – Our forecast for the economic recovery to maintain its momentum in H2 bodes well for occupier and investment activity. But while we think industrial rental growth will pick up, we still expect office and retail rents to end this year lower. …
24th September 2021
The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are unlikely to be severe or lasting. For property investors, …
23rd September 2021
Overview – The economic recovery and strong investor demand are supporting the property market upturn in Scandinavia and Switzerland. However, we expect 2021 to mark the peak for returns in most markets, except for Oslo where the start of the monetary …
Overview – While the Delta variant has slowed economic activity in other parts of the world, this has not yet been the case in the euro-zone, and we are cautiously optimistic that the bloc will continue to grow. This will support the property market …
16th September 2021
The most recent commercial property data have been surprisingly upbeat and have raised the possibility that the recovery could be stronger than expected. But we think investors may have run ahead of themselves and this trend is unlikely to be sustained …
With more hybrid working post-pandemic, the view is that office rents will be under pressure for many years. This raises questions about which locations could be more resilient and if rents in central business districts (CBDs) will perform better than …
8th September 2021
Weak near-term rental prospects and squeezed valuations mean that we expect Swiss office returns to perform poorly in the coming years, particularly in Zurich. Swiss office values have been more resilient to the pandemic than we had first expected. Having …
6th September 2021
The valuation of industrial and offices deteriorated compared to bonds and equities in Q2 on account of falls in property yields. Meanwhile, retail yields stabilised, leaving valuations broadly unchanged. (See Chart 1.) With government bond yields set to …
2nd September 2021
We expect a recovery in domestic and foreign spending along with online penetration rates below most other euro-zone markets to support moderate growth in Spanish prime retail rents over the 2022-25 period, though this is not enough to reverse the decline …
31st August 2021
Data for Q2 confirm that, as with the economic recovery, the property upturn is more advanced in Scandinavia than in western Europe. Investment activity grew strongly, even when excluding a large one-off deal. (See Chart 1.) Prime all-property capital …
25th August 2021
In line with the economic recovery, there were growing signs that property markets have turned a corner in Q2. All-property rents rose on the quarter, while the all-property yield dipped on the back of lower industrial yields. On an annual basis, …
24th August 2021
All-property capital values rose for the third consecutive quarter in Q2, leaving them less than 1% below their pre-virus level. The improvement was driven by a decline in all-property yields, though rents also rose slightly on a quarterly basis for the …
18th August 2021
We expect prime retail rents in both Lyon and Paris to struggle to make up lost ground this year, and even after a return to growth next year, the pace of increases will be subdued. After falling by 15% y/y last year, prime retail rents in Paris edged …
16th August 2021
Following larger-than-expected falls in Q2 and positive near-term developments, we expect prime office and industrial yields to end the year lower than previously forecast. However, we think prime retail yields will trend upwards again as the impact of …
11th August 2021
Cities are central to property performance. And the largest are seen as hugely important by investors. But the pandemic has turned many received ideas about real estate on their head and we think that performance in gateway markets will remain relatively …
10th August 2021
Following better-than-expected Q2 data, we have revised up our Helsinki office returns forecasts for this year. And given a robust rental outlook, returns are set to outpace the euro-zone over the next few years. After a fall of nearly 4% last year, 2021 …
6th August 2021
With demand slowly recovering and supply being pushed back, we no longer expect prime office rental falls in the Italian markets this year. However, the outlook is less encouraging, with a slowdown in office-based employment growth, more remote working …
4th August 2021
The Q2 data showed that pan-European (excl. UK) transactions improved after their Q1 lows. But international travel restrictions, structural shifts in the office and retail sectors and tougher credit conditions mean that the recovery in investment …
29th July 2021
Less favourable demand fundamentals and less scope for yield compression mean that European residential returns are likely to be lower in the coming years than over the previous decade. An analysis of the relative outlook across selected western European …
27th July 2021
More remote working is pushing all occupiers to reassess their office space, but we think that rental growth for prime offices in Brussels should hold up better than the wider market. Following a strong start to the year, the recovery in occupier activity …
22nd July 2021
While longer-term drivers are supportive of flexible offices, we think demand for space will be held back by the slow return of workers to the office, by more competition from home offices and by high levels of cheap, vacant traditional space. A year ago, …
20th July 2021
The slow economic recovery, more remote working and a high supply pipeline are key reasons for our below-consensus forecasts for prime office rental growth in Lisbon in the coming years. As highlighted in a recent Update , we expect weaker growth in …
16th July 2021
With price pressures in the construction sector likely to prove transitory, we think that the hit to activity will be small. That said, we expect construction activity to slow over the coming years on account of lower office completions as the sector …
14th July 2021
Despite poor employment prospects, we are cautiously optimistic on the outlook for CEE leasing activity as the economic recovery gets underway. However, large supply pipelines mean that improving occupier demand will not be enough to prevent further …
8th July 2021
