Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Over recent weeks, the downside risks to our forecasts for a modest recovery in retail rental values in Prague this year have increased. But, if we are right, some of the factors weighing on Czech household spending will begin to ease in the second half …
29th July 2011
We suspect that Q2’s fall in yields may mark the end of the road for the German industrial investment market recovery. As our fears of a rapid slowdown in the manufacturing recovery are borne out, rental expectations are likely to be revised downwards and …
26th July 2011
This morning’s flash euro-zone PMI release suggests that economic recovery in the region may have ground to a virtual halt. The fact that euro-zone manufacturing output is now barely rising supports our forecast that a recovery in euro-zone industrial …
22nd July 2011
It looks increasingly likely that the sovereign debt crisis in the euro-zone will take a heavy toll on the Swiss economy. As a result, the emerging recovery in Swiss commercial property rental values is likely to stall over the next 12-18 months leaving a …
21st July 2011
It is tempting to dismiss the recent slump in office market take-up in Brussels as noise in an otherwise positive trend. But it could reflect the early stages of a labour market slowdown as firms attempt to offset the recent rise in unit labour costs by …
15th July 2011
June’s drop in Polish footfall might suggest that the health of Poland’s retail occupier market is not as strong as many believe. However, the footfall figures are volatile. Together with the strong macroeconomic drivers of retail occupier demand, that …
14th July 2011
Rising construction confidence in Europe may be a sign that commercial property developers are gaining in optimism about the outlook for occupier demand and preparing to boost supply pipelines. Yet, forward-looking surveys suggest that the pace of …
7th July 2011
Relative to historic norms and compared to many other markets, property/bond yield spreads in Stockholm seem quite low. However, the above-average outlook for rental value growth suggests that these spreads could narrow even further. Given our view that …
6th July 2011
Despite concerns about its solvency, financial markets are still giving the Italian economy the benefit of the doubt. For now, property investors are treating Milan’s office market in a similar fashion. Yet, with poor transparency, low liquidity and …
2nd July 2011
The strength of the Norwegian and Swedish economies is consistent with reports that investment demand for commercial property in the Nordics among international funds is on the up. However, high barriers to entry are likely to act as a brake on …
30th June 2011
Q1’s sharp rise in Irish GDP is not as encouraging as it first seems. Although the external sector appears to be booming, we do not expect this to last. More worryingly, domestic demand continued to weaken. As a result, we still do not expect rental …
24th June 2011
The trend for investment volumes among CEE property markets still appears to be upward. However, activity remains well below peak levels and restricted only to a handful of markets, namely Poland, Russia and the Czech Republic. For now, we expect …
23rd June 2011
Signs that French consumer spending has fallen sharply over the past couple of months might make our forecast for retail rental values to track sideways this year look too optimistic. Yet, in the absence of a consumer recession – which is not our view – …
18th June 2011
The Viennese office market seems to be suffering from the weakness of cross-border investment activity in Europe. Nevertheless, the economic fundamentals look sound, suggesting that over the next year or two there is potential for Vienna to experience …
16th June 2011
The recent underperformance of industrial rental values in Warsaw relative to rest of Emerging Europe appears to stem from the fact that consolidation rather than expansion has been a key driver of take-up in recent quarters. However, with stronger …
8th June 2011
The Q1 2011 RICS distressed property monitor points to the largest rises in the number of distressed properties coming onto the market in Q2 in Spain and Ireland. Investment demand in Ireland will not be strong enough to absorb this space. In Spain, …
6th June 2011
Q1’s fall in Danish consumer spending suggests that it may take a little longer for retail rental values in Copenhagen to recover than we previously expected. Given their low level, we cannot rule out the possibility that the worsening rental outlook will …
2nd June 2011
Emerging European property markets are outperforming the rest of non-euro-zone Europe both in terms of rental growth and yield compression. Yet, the pace at which yields are falling is slowing in all regions and we think that the prospects for further …
1st June 2011
Strong economic growth in Turkey over the next 10 to 15 years should support an above average decline in commercial property yields, as well as reasonably strong rental value growth. Our central view is that, over the medium term, total returns in Turkey …
26th May 2011
On a two or three year view, we would not be surprised to see Moscow all-property yields drop by a further 50-100bps. But over the rest of this year, uncertainty over the outcome of next year’s election and recent disappointing economic news are likely to …
25th May 2011
Unlike in Warsaw and Moscow, office rents in Prague, Budapest, Bucharest or Istanbul have not risen over the past year. But the latest macroeconomic and occupier market data signal that Istanbul will be the next market to join the rental recovery. … Will …
20th May 2011
The increasing divergence between the euro-zone’s core and peripheral economies are now clearly evident in the performance of commercial property markets. In contrast to the core, there is no indication yet that rental values in the periphery are …
17th May 2011
Today’s euro-zone GDP data will do nothing to boost investor sentiment towards commercial property in the region’s troubled peripheral economies. Rather it supports forecasts that the gap between yields in core euro-zone markets and the rest will continue …
13th May 2011
This morning’s German trade balance data, together with last week’s production data, suggest that Germany’s industrial recovery still has plenty of momentum. Yet, the strong recovery seen so far has not prompted a rise in industrial rental values and, if …
9th May 2011
This morning’s RICS global survey painted a fairly positive picture of Emerging European commercial property occupier markets, particularly in Poland, Russia and Turkey. But surveyors seem to be relatively downbeat on the Czech Republic. We agree that …
6th May 2011
In Q1 2011, the retail sector accounted for the greatest share of total European commercial property investment market activity. However, this morning’s dreadful retail sales data are consistent with our view that the outlook for retail property returns …
4th May 2011
Today’s ECB Bank Lending Survey makes disappointing reading for the commercial property market. The renewed tightening in credit conditions to both households and firms adds to the case for expecting that the euro-zone economic recovery will soon falter. …
27th April 2011
Within non-euro-zone Europe, commercial property markets in Emerging Europe look set to deliver the highest total returns in both the short and the medium term. We expect Russia and Turkey to record the strongest returns, but Poland appears to offer the …
21st April 2011
Since our previous Analyst we have become a little more optimistic about the potential for returns in some of the core euro-zone commercial property markets such as Germany, France and Belgium, as well as in Finland. But the outlook for returns in the …
20th April 2011
The combination of a high proportion of underutilised stock and early signs that the euro-zone industrial recovery is now starting to lose momentum, suggests that most euro-zone industrial markets are unlikely to record positive rates of rental value …
15th April 2011
Preliminary agency data shows that office rental values in Madrid and Barcelona fell further in the first three months of the year. It is tempting to conclude that having dropped by almost a third from their peak they are unlikely to fall further. But …
14th April 2011
The ECB’s decision to raise interest rates was not a surprise, nor does it materially change the stillloose stance of monetary policy. That said, if nothing else, today’s move will focus investor demand even more heavily on the larger, more liquid, core …
7th April 2011
Recent evidence suggests that European commercial property investors are showing a healthy appetite for the Polish market. We agree that the prospects for returns in Poland are among the best in Europe, and think that, with above-average rental growth, …
5th April 2011
Q4’s rebound in all-property capital values in Budapest and Bucharest is unlikely to mark the start of a rapid recovery. Indeed, weak economic growth prospects argue against a near-term recovery in rental values in either market, and suggest that there is …
29th March 2011
The latest macroeconomic data do little to alter our view that any recovery in euro-zone retail rental values this year will be lacklustre. They also seem consistent with our view that near term prospects are best in Austria, Germany and Finland, and …
25th March 2011
Many of the recent occupier market signals suggest that the outlook for Madrid office markets is marginally better than in Barcelona. Yet, if Spain continues to shed jobs this year as we expect, an analysis of relative rents suggests that the downside …
22nd March 2011
As in the West, commercial property markets in Emerging Europe are likely to split into three camps over the next two years - the good, the bad and the also-rans. While we remain wary of property markets in Hungary and Romania and lukewarm on the Czech …
17th March 2011
Given the weaker prospects for economic and rental growth in Denmark relative to Norway and Sweden, as well as the fact that commercial property in Copenhagen looks fairly pricey, the Danish property investment market looks set to continue lagging the …
16th March 2011
The combination of stronger occupier demand from multinational and financial services firms, lower completion volumes and a low starting vacancy rate has helped close the gap between the level of office rents in Geneva and Zurich. Given its smaller …
10th March 2011
We are not convinced that rental growth in the Prague industrial market will continue to outperform offices and retail. Indeed, the likelihood of a slowdown in external demand, together with the weak outlook for domestic demand, suggests that the rental …
9th March 2011
Relatively low levels of sentiment among French consumers and retailers alike seems to have prevented the French retail market from undergoing as strong a rental recovery as in some other markets. Unfortunately, this relative underperformance looks set to …
3rd March 2011
For the first quarter since non-euro-zone European commercial property markets entered the downturn, on a quarterly basis, rental values did not fall in any office, retail or industrial market. Encouraging as that is, however, with occupier demand likely …
1st March 2011
It now seems clear that prime rental values in most euro-zone office markets are either at a floor, or have entered a recovery phase. But with weak prospects for occupier demand and high vacancy rates, we do not envisage a period of rapid rental value …
24th February 2011
The latest RICS global survey presents a more optimistic outlook for capital value growth in Hungary and Romania than our current forecasts imply. But we think that surveyors may be overstating the potential for yields to fall in both markets. Even so, …
21st February 2011
In Q4 2010, office rental values rose or held steady in all markets outside of the euro-zone’s troubled periphery. But increases in retail and industrial rental values were far less common. Although office markets are leading the way, with economic growth …
17th February 2011
There are certainly some reasons to suggest that the prospects for rental value and capital value growth in the Netherlands are weaker than in most euro-zone markets. However, we think that latest RICS survey may be a little too pessimistic. Indeed, we …
15th February 2011
Italy’s historic position as one of the euro-zone’s most expensive retail markets might suggest that the recent stability of Italian retail yields, while yields in other euro-zone markets have fallen, is a temporary phase. Yet, a weak consumer spending …
8th February 2011
The latest macro indicators for Spain paint a weak picture of industrial occupier demand. Unfortunately, our view that the economy will tip back into recession this year suggests that high levels of spare capacity will persist and that industrial rental …
7th February 2011
Over the next few years, office markets in Warsaw, Moscow and Istanbul look set to continue outperforming other Emerging European capitals. Indeed, brighter GDP and employment growth prospects suggest that strengthening occupier demand will support decent …
3rd February 2011
The relative importance of the banking and financial services industries to the Frankfurt office market could mean that occupier demand will recover faster here than elsewhere in Germany. Meanwhile, with relatively low availability in the most …
31st January 2011
