Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
The strong rise in European property investment volumes in Q4 was driven by only a handful of markets and appears largely seasonal. It is unlikely to be a sign that an upwards trend is forming. … Has European property investment turned a …
22nd January 2013
Steeper falls in manufacturing output than in consumer spending in Spain help to explain the recent underperformance of Spanish manufacturing property rents relative to the logistics sector. And if we are right that Spain’s recession will deepen from …
17th January 2013
Over the past year or so, investors in Austrian property appear to have switched their preference from the office to the retail sector. Against an uncertain economic outlook, we expect this preference to persist, at least until most euro-zone economies …
15th January 2013
The results from this week’s EC survey suggest that, for most of Emerging Europe, commercial property occupier demand probably stagnated or deteriorated in the final quarter of last year. Hungary was an exception. But in common with many office, retail …
11th January 2013
This morning’s EC survey suggests that euro-zone commercial property markets ended 2012 on a low note. What’s more, past form suggests that the weakening in economic sentiment already seen is consistent with euro-zone all-property rents falling throughout …
8th January 2013
The surprising recent strength of the Danish consumer sector suggests that prime retail yields in Copenhagen may have peaked. But we think that retail occupier demand will suffer this year as, among other things, rising unemployment and falling house …
4th January 2013
Recent falls in Italian office rental values are likely to be extended next year. But with a 10% drop in public sector jobs in the pipeline, occupier demand and thus rents, are likely to fall further in Rome than Milan. … Will office rental values in …
20th December 2012
Given its relatively bright medium-term economic growth prospects, the outlook for Poland’s industrial occupier market over the next few years was already pretty decent. Over and above this, though, we think that the country’s ambitious road-building …
17th December 2012
Our forecast that 2012 European commercial property volumes would be as much as 20% lower than in 2011 looks to be on track. Unfortunately, the conditions are not in place for a rebound in 2013. If the euro-zone recession deepens as we expect, investment …
13th December 2012
The relatively strong rise in Helsinki retail rental values seen since 2010 is not difficult to square with the underlying health of the Finnish economy. But it is less straightforward to justify recent rises in Amsterdam retail rents. Nevertheless, we …
11th December 2012
Monday’s Central & Eastern European (CEE) manufacturing PMI data suggest that recent rises in industrial yields in Prague and Budapest might be one-offs. However, softer external demand from the euro-zone looks set to prompt falls in industrial production …
5th December 2012
Above-average falls in rental values and a rising yield gap with core markets both suggest that there is growing scope for commercial property in the peripheral euro-zone economies to outperform. Unfortunately, the drag exerted by the euro-zone crisis and …
4th December 2012
If the euro-zone crisis worsens and economic growth in Norway and Sweden disappoints, property yields in both Oslo and Stockholm are likely to rise by 30bps to 50bps over the next 12-18 months. Although our central forecasts do not envisage a marked shift …
30th November 2012
Outside the peripheral markets, the economic downturn in the euro-zone has yet to have a material impact on commercial property values. Yet if the recession deepens as we anticipate, the next six months should bring more widespread evidence that yields …
27th November 2012
We think that weak retail fundamentals in Belgium don’t warrant the currently low level of retail property yields in Brussels. Indeed, our forecast that consumer spending and retail rents are likely to fall suggests that investors’ required yields will …
22nd November 2012
Consistent with the slowdown in the region’s economies, the upturn in commercial property rents in Scandinavia seems to have stalled. Given that, we think that yields will begin to rise before long, and in turn property prices will soften. Elsewhere, the …
21st November 2012
In Q3, the euro-zone economy entered recession. For now, across the euro-zone as a whole commercial property rents and yields are pretty much flat. But if we are right that the region’s economic climate will deteriorate over the next 18 months, capital …
16th November 2012
At the margins, a case could be made that Turkey’s sovereign debt upgrade could boost investor sentiment towards all Turkish assets, including property. But, in 2013, given the prospect of tight credit conditions and weaker occupier demand, the upgrade …
12th November 2012
Recent data from RICS showing that occupier demand in France has been falling are consistent with figures showing that office and industrial take-up has weakened significantly. The data also look consistent with our forecast that, in 2013, French property …
9th November 2012
If we are right that the euro-zone economy will continue to weaken, the drag on economic activity in non-euro-zone European economies is likely to intensify. As a result, occupier markets in non-euro-zone economies will soften, meaning that rental values …
8th November 2012
The economic backdrop to euro-zone commercial property markets continues to deteriorate. Our forecasts, that all member states will experience some falls in economic output next year, appear to be on track. Recession will put downward pressure on rental …
Fresh signs of life in the consumer sector, together with relatively low retail property prices, seem to have prompted investor interest in the Romanian retail market. But the immediate outlook for consumer spending is weak and, although there is …
7th November 2012
Recent business surveys do nothing to undermine our forecast that Germany will lapse back into recession next year. Admittedly, that recession should be mild. But that is unlikely to prevent commercial property rental values from falling by up to 5% over …
1st November 2012
The results of this morning’s Q3 ECB Bank Lending Survey suggest that both occupier and investment demand for commercial property in the euro-zone is likely to weaken in the near term. And with many banks reportedly still keen to cut their exposure to the …
31st October 2012
To date, despite a sharp drop in investment volumes and growing evidence of a sharp slowdown in GDP growth, property yields in Moscow have not risen as we anticipated. But while a case can be made that yields in Moscow will remain resilient to the …
30th October 2012
The tone of both of today’s commercial property data releases was downbeat. Although the latest Bank of England survey showed that credit supply in the sector has improved slightly, borrowers are not rushing to take on new loans. Meanwhile, new commercial …
25th October 2012
Over the next year or so, we think retail rental values in Stockholm will remain flat. Indeed, although we don’t expect consumer spending to contract, growth is likely to be very subdued, especially compared to the rates seen in 2010 and 2011. What’s …
23rd October 2012
Given the weak economic outlook for the Emerging European economies and the fact that credit conditions are likely to remain tight, we suspect that over the next 18 months the recent rise in commercial property transaction volumes in the region will not …
18th October 2012
Industrial rents seem to be more sensitive to changes in the Swiss economy in Geneva than in Zurich. And industrial rents in Geneva also look a little high compared to Zurich, at least relative to recent norms. Given the weak outlook for the Swiss …
15th October 2012
The recent rebound in French real estate equity prices suggests that our forecast for commercial property capital values in Paris to fall by a total of 15% to 20% in 2012-13 may be too pessimistic. But with the underlying health of the occupier market …
10th October 2012
Weak prospects for Spain’s consumer sector suggest that retail occupier demand will deteriorate before the end of this year. That together with a development pipeline which is still growing makes us think that, despite their recent resilience, rental …
9th October 2012
Details surrounding last week’s privatisation deal involving the International Broadcasting Centre in Athens suggest that the Greek commercial property market may be even weaker than agency figures imply. And, together with doubts over its future in the …
3rd October 2012
Agency estimates of a huge development pipeline seem to suggest that Warsaw’s office market faces a period of excess supply. After all, economic sentiment in Poland is deteriorating, and occupier demand has begun to soften. Given that, however, and the …
1st October 2012
Recent evidence shows that the Frankfurt retail market is seeing very strong occupier demand. But this demand seems to be driven more by the low level of Frankfurt retail rents relative to the national average than any particular local economic factor. … …
27th September 2012
Increased use of rental incentives seems to have had a powerful dampening effect on the response of headline office rents in Amsterdam to swings – both up and down – in the vacancy rate. The implication is that, while we expect the next move for …
25th September 2012
Over the next five years we think that, with regard to the outlook for rental values, the composition of its occupier base and its low level of rental values means that, on average, Frankfurt is likely to see the strongest growth of Germany’s four largest …
20th September 2012
Reports that retail rents in Istanbul have fallen by about 6% over the past year seem consistent with the sharp slowdown in consumer spending and the large boost to supply last year. But if we are right that domestic demand will recover in 2013 and 2014, …
19th September 2012
The sharp rise in office take-up seen over the past six months in both Amsterdam and Brussels is unlikely to be sustained over the next 15 months or so. In fact, we think that take-up will fall as underlying occupier demand weakens in-line with …
14th September 2012
The rise in Prague retail rents seen over the past year or so is unlikely to be sustained over the next 18 months. But even though we think the consumer spending outlook will remain weak, the relatively low levels of new supply over the past two years …
12th September 2012
We see no reason to expect the wide spread that has emerged between prime office yields in Budapest and those in Prague and Warsaw to narrow anytime soon. Instead, Hungary’s relatively weak economic outlook and the credibility deficit of its policymakers …
6th September 2012
Recent signs of an economic slowdown have been in line with our expectations. Thus we feel little need to revise our relatively positive Russian commercial property forecasts. However, the gloomy nature of the news flow will certainly add to investors’ …
5th September 2012
Industrial property in Copenhagen is unlikely to buck the general trend of falling capital values in European markets. But over the next 18 months, and in contrast to the past five years, those falls should be smaller, or at least no larger, than those …
31st August 2012
Sweden’s strong economic fundamentals and high transparency scores have boosted overseas demand for Stockholm office property and pushed yields down to historically low levels. But we are sceptical that safe haven flows will be strong enough to underpin …
28th August 2012
Norway and Sweden continue to ride out the euro-zone crisis relatively well. But the picture in Emerging Europe is less bright. The Czech and Hungarian economies both contracted in Q2, while the pace of growth in Russia eased. Consistent with that, the …
24th August 2012
The weakness of indicators of consumer activity in the Netherlands suggests that the recent pause in retail rental value growth is unlikely to be a one-off. Even so, the outlook for Dutch retail property should be better than for most euro-zone markets. … …
21st August 2012
In Q2, the euro-zone economy contracted as peripheral member states recorded sharp falls in GDP. Consistent with that, falls in all-property capital values remain centred on peripheral markets. But if the recession deepens, that could well change in the …
15th August 2012
Reports that investor interest in Spanish and Italian property has slumped in recent months seem consistent with our view that from current levels, property yields in both markets will see above-average rises, of at least another 60bps over the next 12 to …
14th August 2012
The euro-zone crisis already appears to be having a detrimental impact on economic growth across the rest of Europe and over the next two years, most non-euro-zone economies will experience a period of sub-trend growth, or in some cases a mild recession. …
8th August 2012
The unfolding recession in the euro-zone has considerably further to run. And it does not bode well for commercial property. Occupier demand will weaken and most markets will see fresh falls in rental values over the remainder of this year and into 2013. …
At around 4.5%, Brussels retail yields are back very close to the lows recorded in late 2007 and early 2008. On this basis, only in Vienna and some German cities does retail property look more expensive. Unfortunately, we expect the Belgian economy to …
2nd August 2012
