Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the weak state of the French economy, the Ile-de-France office occupier downturn stepped up a notch in 2013. More notable, though, was the fall in the investment volume, which suggests that some investors may now be less …
15th January 2014
It now looks likely that Warsaw office rents fell by between 3% and 5% last year, in line with our forecasts. We think that office rents should now stabilise, as occupier demand turns increasingly expansionary. But the still-large and mostly speculative …
14th January 2014
The surge in UK economic sentiment appears to be breathing new life into occupier markets outside London and is a key reason why we expect commercial property values in the UK as a whole to do well in 2014. In Europe, however, economic sentiment is far …
9th January 2014
Signs that Spain's labour market has now turned a corner, both nationally and in its two largest cities, are clearly good news for office occupier markets. Falls in unemployment over the past year suggest that vacancy rates in Barcelona and, more notably, …
7th January 2014
Together with the fact that European logistics property yields look high in relation to the other main commercial property sectors, we think that the message from Eurostat's 2013 household ICT usage survey - that European consumers are increasingly using …
2nd January 2014
As 2013 draws to a close, in this Focus we take the opportunity to outline a selection of our key calls for European commercial property markets in 2014, and the thinking that underpins them. … Half a dozen key calls for European commercial property …
18th December 2013
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the outlook for the Hungarian commercial property investment market. This afternoon’s further cut in interest rates, to a fresh record low of 3%, only serves to make property valuations look more …
17th December 2013
The latest economic data from Denmark suggest that industrial occupier conditions in Copenhagen are on the mend. And with rental values more than 10% below a linear trend, and yields more than 10% above a long-run average, there is plenty of scope over …
10th December 2013
Commercial property in the euro-zone's two largest economies may appear expensive. But given the market's size, liquidity and perceived safe-haven status, as well as our view that capital values will be preserved over the next five years, we think that …
9th December 2013
Amsterdam’s “Action Programme to Tackle Vacant Offices” appears to be bearing fruit. The total office stock has shrunk over the past year and, despite weak occupier demand, the vacancy rate has fallen. We think this trend will continue for at least the …
4th December 2013
The economic problems facing Italy mean that, in our view, it is too soon to call the floor for capital values in office and industrial markets. By contrast, we do expect the next big move in Spanish property values to be up. However, if we are right that …
2nd December 2013
For European commercial property markets outside of the currency union, occupier conditions appear to be strengthening gradually, while investment markets have cooled. We expect these trends to continue. Broadly speaking, we think that steady but …
28th November 2013
The latest economic and property market data from the single currency region sit comfortably with our forecasts that commercial property in the euro-zone faces a further year of stability in rental values and initial yields. Our view is that euro-zone GDP …
Norwegian commercial property outperformed over 2009-12 and has recently accelerated again. Yet with rents now back at or above past peaks and yields at historically low levels, the headroom for “catch-up” capital value growth that was present in early …
21st November 2013
All-property capital values in Ireland are 20% higher than a year ago and there is scope for further strong, yield-driven gains over the next quarter or two. To us, it seems inevitable that the pace of the upturn will slow thereafter, but rental gains …
19th November 2013
The latest economic activity data point to strengthening conditions in parts of Europe outside of the single currency region. Hence, commercial property occupier demand seems to be holding up fairly well, particularly in Emerging Europe. And this is …
14th November 2013
The message from the latest RICS survey was that property prospects in most parts of Emerging Europe are subdued, a view we broadly share. The exceptions are the Czech Republic, where we think capital value expectations have become too optimistic, and …
12th November 2013
Increased optimism in the euro-zone’s economic outlook may have prompted some investors to look through what they perceive to be the final stages of the occupier market downturn. But October’s fall in the euro-zone PMI, together with today’s ECB decision …
7th November 2013
The improvement in the euro-zone economy has supported a relatively active quarter for commercial property investment in Q3. Moreover, some types of investors have become increasingly willing to look beyond France and Germany, to Spain and Italy. For now, …
6th November 2013
The dip in Prague office rents in the third quarter was consistent with our existing forecast and is not a cause for alarm. That said, with only a modest upturn in occupier demand likely over the next 12-18 months and the supply of space also set to rise, …
31st October 2013
The recent return of some international investors to commercial property markets in Spain and Italy seems to reflect the rapid turnaround in sentiment in both economies over the past year or so. Our view is that neither property market is yet out of the …
30th October 2013
Stockholm's office market appears to be in relatively good shape. Economic sentiment is rising, credit conditions for commercial property are strengthening, while this morning's decision by the Riksbank to hold interest rates steady means that monetary …
24th October 2013
Recent data pointing to a sharp upturn in the Polish economy bode well for a gentle recovery in retail and industrial capital values in 2014. But the office market faces rising vacancy rates and a still-substantial supply pipeline. Thus it may take a …
23rd October 2013
Third-quarter agency data show that, overall, office occupier market activity in Germany's major markets has continued to trend lower. But take-up levels remain relatively high, while the positive tone of the latest economic and survey data suggests that …
18th October 2013
There have been encouraging signs lately that international institutional investors might be returning to the Portuguese commercial property market. This would be consistent with the improvement in the economy over the past six months and the fact that …
15th October 2013
Over the next 18 months, Turkey’s shopping centre market faces a 20% rise in supply. Yet unlike 2008 and 2011, when supply rose by a similar margin, occupier market fundamentals should prove more resilient, thus helping to avert a repeat of the rental …
10th October 2013
The factors which have supported the sharp narrowing of the spread between Spanish and German government bond yields over the past year or so should also be supportive of Spanish property values. However, near-term constraints on economic growth mean that …
8th October 2013
The spreads between non-prime and prime yields in some of Europe’s core property investment markets have widened over the past few years. But without stronger evidence of a sustainable economic recovery in Continental Europe, there is not yet much scope …
3rd October 2013
Over the next 5-10 years, we think that capital values in the European logistics sector will be strongest in Hungary, Ireland and the UK, but also above average in Russia and Germany. … Logistics: where are the …
30th September 2013
The resilience of Dutch commercial property markets to very weak economic fundamentals over the past few years may finally be fading. Previous supports such as the solid labour market and an increased use of rental incentives are now unwinding. Capital …
26th September 2013
Last week’s data, which confirmed that the economy took another step forward in the second quarter, was welcome news for Irish property markets. But there was little sign of any material strengthening in the domestic economy. That suggests that the …
23rd September 2013
Changes to the legislation governing German Open-Ended Funds (GOEFs) this year seem to have been well received. The overall value of the sector has stabilised and new fund launches are being planned. Yet the legacy of the crisis is not over and we remain …
19th September 2013
September’s MPC minutes suggest that, despite the arguably disappointing impact of forward guidance, the Committee is happy with its policy stance. A resumption of quantitative easing (QE) before the end of the year now looks less likely, although we …
17th September 2013
Yesterday’s Q2 GDP data from Turkey suggest that retail occupier demand in Istanbul and Ankara is currently pretty strong. Against this backdrop, we think retail yields in both markets could fall substantially by end-2014. If we are right that consumer …
11th September 2013
Our forecasts envisage that by end-2017, office and retail capital values in Prague are unlikely to be materially higher than current levels. By contrast we think that industrial values might rise by around 8%. This reflects an assumption that, having …
10th September 2013
Unlike in Germany, regional labour market data from elsewhere in the euro-zone do not give much of a steer on the likely near-term paths of local office market vacancy rates. However, they do suggest that, in common with their national pictures, office …
6th September 2013
The main issue with UK regional indicators published in August was the poor economic performance that the Labour Force Survey ascribed to several regions, including London. Our view is that the LFS was probably giving a misleading impression, so this …
4th September 2013
The fundamental drivers of commercial property outside of the single currency region have not changed materially since our previous Analyst. However, a widespread rise in business sentiment has greatly reduced the chances of further falls in rental values …
28th August 2013
The economic outlook for the euro-zone has brightened since our previous Analyst, prompting us to increase our forecasts for commercial property capital values and total returns. Indeed, our less pessimistic view on growth prospects point to healthier …
The German economy seems to be getting back onto a solid footing. However, given the normal lags between developments in the economy and the property market, changes already seen in regional labour markets suggest that, over the next year, office vacancy …
22nd August 2013
The last few weeks have brought increased evidence that the Brussels office market is gaining popularity with national and international investors. For now, occupier market conditions remain pretty weak. But the economic outlook has brightened and our …
19th August 2013
The latest data suggest that occupier demand in the Warsaw office market is beginning to strengthen again. But with employment in the Polish capital still low and the near-term office development pipeline still large, our forecast for rents to fall by up …
15th August 2013
Signs of a renaissance in Italy’s commercial property investment market appear to be heavily reliant on investors targeting distressed property. To the extent that most investors are unwilling to buy without a discount to prevailing valuations, this may …
12th August 2013
With domestic demand still weakening, the near-term outlook for Bucharest’s logistics and retail property sectors is subdued. But there is some potential for office-based employment to rise from here, suggesting that Bucharest’s office market could start …
8th August 2013
The recent improvement in euro-zone business surveys is unlikely to mark the start of a strong and broad-based economic recovery. Nevertheless, by helping to underpin sentiment, it will increase thechances of an extended period of stability for euro-zone …
6th August 2013
The sharp fall in investment volumes in Emerging Europe in the second quarter may prove only temporary. But it also seems consistent with the drop in consensus forecasts for Poland and Russia. Elsewhere, growing momentum in the UK economy should help to …
1st August 2013
In contrast to most euro-zone markets, the downturn in Milan and Paris office rental values was extended in the second quarter. The comparatively high level of rents in each market, the rising trend in vacancy rates and the weak prospects for occupier …
30th July 2013
Despite recent signs that the euro-zone recession is easing, the tone of the latest occupier market data remains soft and there has been no observable upward shift in investment market activity. Even so, neither this nor the recent global financial market …
26th July 2013
Agency data show that prime euro-zone retail rental value growth came to an abrupt halt in Q2. With the underlying macroeconomic drivers of retail occupier demand still poor, we think that retail rents will now start to fall in most member states. Germany …
23rd July 2013
Preliminary data that show prime office yields in Brussels fell in Q2 are hard to square with the weak picture of underlying occupier demand. Given this, we would not be surprised if the fall in yields is revised away or reversed over the coming months. …
19th July 2013
