Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Last week’s substantial Swiss franc appreciation has significantly dented the outlook for economic growth and occupier demand. It has also made Swiss property look even more expensive, especially to foreign buyers. Accordingly, Swiss property markets are …
20th January 2015
With the outlook for French consumer spending still weak and flows of wealthy tourists unlikely to grow in the short-term, retail rents in Paris and Lyon are unlikely to experience particularly strong growth in 2015. Further ahead, however, constrained …
15th January 2015
Despite Germany’s recent slowdown, logistics operators and customers report that market conditions are above average. And, despite our forecasts for overall soft economic growth this year, trade and consumption should fare relatively well, thus helping to …
14th January 2015
Strong growth in Italian logistics occupier market activity suggests that rental values may finally have found a floor. Yet with the Italian economy set to stagnate this year, and with ample spare capacity, there’s little to suggest that rents will now …
9th January 2015
Despite growing concerns about the euro-zone economic outlook, we expect rental growth to improve in 2015. Indeed, with the bund yield and the euro both falling further in the last month, there may be a small upside risk to capital value growth from lower …
6th January 2015
Given below-trend consumer spending growth in the Czech Republic until mid-2016, the short-term outlook is for only limited growth in retail rental values. While stronger growth will then push rents up faster, these gains will fail to match the rental …
22nd December 2014
The outlook for consumption growth in the Southern peripheral euro-zone economies is fragile. Yet there seems potential for rents to rise, given that the current level offers decent value for retailers. … What’s the outlook for peripheral retail rental …
18th December 2014
The subdued outlook for German GDP growth suggests that occupiers will be cautious with regard to expansion plans in 2015. Nevertheless, relatively tight office and retail supply conditions imply that rental values should continue to rise. … Subdued …
17th December 2014
Historically low bond yields and a gradually improving rental growth outlook should mean that prime office yields set new lows in this cycle. However, in the absence of frenzied lending on Danish real estate and above-trend growth, the retail and …
11th December 2014
The stance of monetary policy is likely to stay exceptionally loose for the foreseeable future. And coupled with low inflation, we expect bond yields to stay lower for longer. Therefore, it seems increasingly likely that prime property yields can continue …
8th December 2014
Further monetary easing from the ECB is unlikely to be decisive enough to put the euro-zone on a stronger growth trajectory, implying that the outlook for occupier markets is subdued. Nevertheless, with euro-zone bond yields set to stay lower for longer, …
4th December 2014
Recent cuts to our Bund yield forecasts reflect our view that the euro-zone economy will struggle to gain traction over the next year or two. Yet, on balance, by creating the scope for property yields to edge lower still, they are likely to give a further …
2nd December 2014
Polish retail sales growth will continue to improve as labour market conditions strengthen. While this will support further retailer expansion, the volume of shopping centre space being developed and extended will dampen rental growth, particularly …
28th November 2014
A weak economic outlook for the euro-zone means that we do not expect particularly strong rental growth in the coming years. But, with interest rates on hold and bond yields expected to stay low, prime property in the region will see further yield falls …
27th November 2014
Italy’s weak economic outlook suggests that occupier demand in Milan will continue to be driven by companies seeking to consolidate space. As such, over the coming quarters the vacancy rate will probably rise further. That leaves little potential for …
20th November 2014
Office rental values in Vienna have ticked up over 2014 despite weak take-up. That seems to be down to the low availability of modern office space, as companies seek efficiency savings in light of the subdued economic growth outlook. Equally, however, a …
19th November 2014
Economic indicators generally pointed to slower growth across both Western European and Emerging European economies in Q3. That helps to explain why occupier market data were soft, with rents unchanged in most cities. Yield changes were more numerous, and …
14th November 2014
The decline in Russia’s macroeconomic outlook suggests that Moscow occupier demand will fall further. With an influx of new supply also undermining rental values, and property yields set to come under pressure from rising interest rates, the outlook for …
13th November 2014
There are a number of reasons to think that the German office occupier market is stronger than third quarter take-up data suggest. And, with vacancy rates low and the majority of upcoming developments already pre-let, the outlook for rental values remains …
7th November 2014
Economic indicators point to a slowing of the euro-zone economic recovery, particularly in the core economies. Nevertheless, the search for property investment opportunities has carried on unabated, with total euro-zone investment reaching its highest …
6th November 2014
Despite only tepid economic growth in Belgium, strengthening occupier demand has caused industrial vacancy rates to fall. With vacancy at frictional levels, prime rental value growth will soon widen to the Brussels market, further supporting positive real …
29th October 2014
A low volume of “bad asset” sales helps to explain why Italy’s investment growth has lagged behind other countries. Yet the recent bank stress tests, combined with changes to the Italian REIT structure, should be the catalyst required to kick-start this …
28th October 2014
Compared to previous bouts of risk aversion, the peripheral euro-zone and emerging European economic outlook is better. And, with investors now seeing the sector as a core portfolio component, the risks to logistics property pricing outside of the core …
22nd October 2014
The current rise in risk aversion may dent the growth in property investment volumes in H1 2015 as demand for secondary assets wanes. However, with bund yields remaining low, prime property demand and indeed, pricing, will not be negatively impacted in …
21st October 2014
With oil prices having fallen and costs continuing to rise, firms in the sector have cut back their investment plans. Whilst this will reduce economic growth more broadly, we expect the greatest impact on property to be in the office sector, where upwards …
15th October 2014
In contrast to most core euro-zone markets, industrial yields across the periphery have yet to narrow to the same extent as office and retail yields. Hence, while the recent weak euro-zone production data increases the risk that occupier market recoveries …
14th October 2014
Despite a weak outlook for the occupier markets, we expect Swiss prime office yields to mark time at their current levels for at least another 12 to 18 months as bond yields stay close to historic lows and investment activity from local pension funds …
9th October 2014
Gradually improving economic growth and tightening supply in prime locations is set to produce rental growth in the next 12 months. With industrial yields elevated relative to both office yields and risk-free rates, the prospects for this sector make …
8th October 2014
Net absorption is likely to fall well short of the increase in new supply in the Prague office market over the next couple of years. Therefore, we have downgraded our rental growth forecasts for the next few years and no longer expect a return to positive …
1st October 2014
The significant fall in the Turkish lira, coupled with a consumer-sector slowdown, will ensure that landlords of secondary schemes continue to face downwards pressure on rents. However, Turkey’s prime high streets are expected to achieve rental growth of …
30th September 2014
The relationship between retail sales growth and prime high street rental growth in Italy has broken down in recent years as occupier demand has been driven mainly by luxury retailers. Accordingly, we do not believe that the weak consumer outlook for …
25th September 2014
Given an environment of relatively muted economic growth in the Netherlands and its main trading partners, we think that office property returns have more potential to deliver a positive surprise than industrial or retail, thanks in part to the greater …
24th September 2014
The short-term blip in German growth will not significantly impact office markets and, although development pipelines are growing, we expect to see continued office rental value growth in the next few years as absorption of new space remains strong. … Do …
16th September 2014
Despite weak economic and employment growth, prime office rents in Helsinki should rise a little further in the next couple of years. Further ahead, however, centrally-located office markets may then underperform emerging out-of-town locations. … What …
15th September 2014
Facing some of the highest industrial build costs in Europe, developers are unlikely to find it profitable to speculatively construct industrial space in Sweden in the next few years. Therefore, with vacancy already tight and demand set to improve, we …
11th September 2014
Today’s historically low Belgian retail yields cannot be explained by strong rental growth prospects. Rather, in a market with a high proportion of international retailers, investors’ preference for low risk investments have been key. But this is likely …
10th September 2014
Provided that Hungary’s apparent slowdown in the pace of economic growth is short-lived, industrial rental values are more likely to continue to mark time over the next few quarters than to fall. But it may take a year or so before vacancy rates drop far …
4th September 2014
Over the first half of the year, capital values in the Emerging European commercial property markets were little changed, while values in non-euro-zone Western markets edged a little higher. Over the next 18 months or so, we expect the outperformance of …
3rd September 2014
The euro-zone’s economic problems show few signs of easing and a rapid recovery in economic growth and job creation over the next few quarters seems unlikely. The good news is that the dip in bond yields over the first half of the year has lent additional …
The recent sharp drop in Portuguese property yields has not been excessive. But with yields no longer at a level that is obviously too high and the economic outlook still fragile, yield impact, capital value growth and total returns are all poised for a …
28th August 2014
Recent, disappointing euro-zone economic data reaffirm our view that a meaningful, demand-driven commercial property rental upturn is not yet on the horizon. Given a looming floor for yields, this means that the near-term outlook for capital values across …
21st August 2014
To date, the stronger recovery in office-based employment in Barcelona has yet to be reflected in a rise in rental values. But over the next couple of years, we suspect that rents in Barcelona will rise a touch more rapidly than in Madrid. … Will office …
19th August 2014
The recent fall in office take-up across the main CEE markets is a concern given the region’s large office development pipelines. But at the same time, the recent strength of office-based employment growth should drive occupier demand higher over the …
14th August 2014
Solid Norwegian retail sales growth over the past few years seems to explain the rise in Oslo retail rental values. Granted, other factors such as changing retail trends are also at play. Nevertheless, the recent slowdown in retail sales growth means that …
12th August 2014
Parisian office take-up grew by 55%y/y in the second quarter, but fell in three of the top four German cities, including a 45%y/y fall in Frankfurt. Nevertheless, the underlying weakness of the French economy means that Parisian take-up could yet drop …
7th August 2014
Economic indicators in the non-euro-zone Western European economies were generally positive in Q2, but there are signs that growth slowed across the board in Emerging Europe. That wasn’t enough to put off investors however, with CEE Q2 investment volumes …
6th August 2014
Economic indicators paint a mixed picture of the euro-zone recovery. On the one hand, the situation in the peripheral economies is improving. But at the same time, growth in the core economies appears to be faltering. As a result, there was relatively …
1st August 2014
We envisage only a modest improvement in office occupier demand in the Netherlands over the next year or two as economic growth and job creation disappoint. Yet office rents are likely to drift higher as occupier demand focuses on the limited supply of …
28th July 2014
Poland’s strengthening labour market and rising consumer confidence bode well for retail occupier demand in Krakow and Warsaw. And, with little new supply in the pipeline, the prospects for rental growth in both cities look positive. … Rental growth in …
24th July 2014
Belgium’s weak economic fundamentals mean it sits near the bottom of the rankings in terms of core euro-zone commercial property investment destinations. While Italy suffers from an even weaker economic backdrop, the fact that the property market did not …
22nd July 2014
