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Subdued economic growth and similarly weak office sector demand have resulted in muted take-up volumes in Brussels. The slow first half of the year means that we have trimmed our rental growth forecasts for 2015, and there are also growing risks to our …
14th July 2015
Robust growth in the consumer sector will begin to translate into retail rental growth later this year. This will spur investor demand and, ultimately, force yields 40bps lower by the end of 2016. … Czech retail performance prospects heating …
8th July 2015
German logistics occupier demand should increase over the coming quarters. Yet with the sector already facing pressure from rising wages, occupiers are set to take up space further away from prime areas. As a result, we expect German rental value growth …
7th July 2015
Emerging European financial markets have generally shrugged off the announcement of a Greek referendum. Yet while there are reasons to believe that Emerging Europe is less exposed to Grexit risks than in the past, property markets in Bucharest and …
2nd July 2015
Today's PMI readings were slightly weaker than expected but do not change the general picture, which is that growth is recovering on the back of both an improvement in external demand and a policy induced pick-up in domestic activity. … How might …
30th June 2015
Investment flows have been rising in the Nordics, reflecting both large single-asset deals and, increasingly, a number of major portfolio transactions. The growing willingness to transact secondary property implied by these portfolio deals reflects …
25th June 2015
A combination of spare capacity and the ban on Sunday trading will limit retailer demand in Hungary in the next year or two. Thereafter, new shopping centre developments will prevent rental growth from returning to the rates that were typical prior to the …
24th June 2015
Weak rental value growth and limited inward yield shift will restrict capital value growth in Switzerland. As a result, when combined with a low income yield, over the next five years Swiss property will underperform the other European markets. … Swiss …
19th June 2015
Recovering economic growth in the euro-zone will support a revival in occupier demand. But, whilst elevated availability will limit rental growth in the office and industrial sectors, the relative lack of space will mean that prime retail rents grow more …
16th June 2015
There are now concrete signs that the slowdown in the Norwegian oil industry is beginning to feed through to the wider economy. As a result, we expect the upwards trend in Oslo office market rents to slow in the next couple of years. … Oil sector slowdown …
12th June 2015
The boost to euro-zone office rents stemming from a pick up in economic growth and employment over the next year or so will be partially offset by high vacancy rates. Nevertheless, the fact that vacancy rates are set to fall should still support the …
8th June 2015
The non-euro-zone economies and property markets have generally started the year positively. We expect further improvement in GDP growth in most countries to support expansionary occupier demand, with prime space initially being the greatest beneficiary. …
4th June 2015
Compared to our last Analyst, we have moved up our rental growth forecasts for 2015 and 2016, reflecting limited development pipelines and upgrades to our macroeconomic forecasts. The rental upgrade for this year, combined with our expectations for …
Non-Europeans are playing an increasingly important role in driving property investment volumes in Europe. The weaker euro and reports that non-Europeans tend to have lower target returns suggests that their influence will continue to grow. … Non-European …
28th May 2015
The Czech and Polish economies are motoring along nicely. However, the latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that our view, that solid demand fundamentals will be swamped by excess supply, causing rents to fall, has now become consensus. … Office rents in …
27th May 2015
Economic growth appears to have slowed in much of non-euro Western Europe in Q1, but maintained a solid pace in Emerging Europe, with the major exception of Russia. Russia’s troubles are also evident in property investment volumes. The sharp drop in …
20th May 2015
Despite euro-zone all-property rents recording their strongest rise since 2007, it’s too soon to say that rental values have finally lifted off. Rather, with economic and employment growth set to remain relatively subdued, over the coming years we expect …
18th May 2015
The pace of euro-zone all-property yield compression picked up in Q1, driven mostly by the office and industrial sectors. At the all-property level euro-zone rental values rose by 1.2%q/q, but that was generally the result of strong rises in a few key …
14th May 2015
The Hungarian economy stands to see above-trend growth rates in the coming years, supporting occupier demand. With the prospects for rental values turning positive, yields look cheap on a historical basis and are set to fall markedly in the next two …
13th May 2015
Amidst a slowly improving economic backdrop, prime euro-zone office rents have risen in recent quarters. We expect further gradual increases in occupier demand, coupled with constrained supply, to drive office rental growth of 1.7% in 2015 and 2.6% in …
8th May 2015
The negative effects of the Swiss franc appreciation on economic growth and employment suggest that the recent stabilisation of Geneva and Zurich office rents is unlikely to last. Rather, with vacancy rates set to rise further as new supply enters the …
7th May 2015
Commercial property investment recorded another strong performance in Q1. In annual terms, impressive rises in Belgium, Italy and Spain offset declines in a number of other markets. Encouragingly, the results of the latest RICS Commercial Property Monitor …
29th April 2015
Stockholm offices are forecast to produce solid rent rises in 2015. Coupled with prime yields falling to 4%, this will drive double-digit capital growth this year. … Stockholm offices capital growth to reach double figures this …
28th April 2015
Better economic growth prospects in Denmark mean the outlook for the industrial market has turned positive. However, yields remain elevated relative to both the office sector and the other Nordic markets. We therefore expect prime Danish industrial assets …
22nd April 2015
Vacancy rates across Germany have edged lower over the past year. Consistent with that, rental values have also been moving up. Given that vacancy rates are now generally below their pre-crisis troughs, development activity is moderate, and economic …
21st April 2015
The nascent recovery in consumer spending in Central Europe is expected to strengthen. Retail property in the region will benefit from improving occupier demand, although we expect the prime end of the market to perform best, which will drive …
16th April 2015
Despite recent positive economic data, the Italian economy is unlikely to rebound strongly this year. Nevertheless, a loosening of credit standards and the fact that real estate loans are now being offloaded by banks should allow yield compression to …
15th April 2015
Despite decent prospects for German industrial output, logistics capital value growth seems unlikely to outperform the office and retail sectors, or logistics property in other countries. That’s largely because the bulk of yield compression has already …
9th April 2015
The anaemic growth outlook for the French economy in 2015 and 2016 does not bode well for a recovery in occupier demand. But increased competition for the best space amongst both tenants and investors should ensure that prime property continues to perform …
8th April 2015
A combination of strengthening industrial output and further growth in the logistics sector will underpin industrial rental levels in Central Europe this year and allow them to pick up from 2016. … Will stronger industrial output drive CE industrial …
2nd April 2015
Irish household debt looks high relative to both international and historical comparisons. Yet servicing costs are low, and rising house prices will boost net worth. Together with the positive economic outlook, that suggests consumption should improve. …
31st March 2015
A more balanced economy and improvements in public institutions have reduced the risk of investing in Romania. And, given that industrial yields remain close to 10% despite strong levels of activity in the occupier market, there seems ample scope for …
26th March 2015
Euro-zone consumer confidence is at its highest level since 2007. While the long-term consumption outlook remains challenging, elevated sentiment should nevertheless help support retail rental value growth in 2015. The biggest winners look set to be the …
24th March 2015
The ECB’s QE programme will be a modest boon for some financial firms. And it should help to sustain the recent rise in financial sector confidence. In turn, that should feed through into occupier demand in Frankfurt. As such, we suspect rents will rise …
19th March 2015
A gradual recovery in Dutch house prices will support retail sales growth in the Netherlands. This will drive a rise in prime retail rents in 2015 in both Amsterdam and Rotterdam. However, the slow deleveraging process is likely to prevent rapid rates of …
17th March 2015
Low inflation and historically low interest rates in the Nordic region will support real wage growth and rising house prices in every market bar Finland. With consumer spending growth set to benefit, particularly in Sweden, we envisage solid rates of …
13th March 2015
Historically, all-property yields in Madrid have tended to be higher than those in Milan. Yet over the past year, that spread has reversed. Given Spain’s stronger economic prospects and the outlook for decent rental growth in Madrid, over the coming years …
11th March 2015
With monetary policy being loosened across Europe, we expect bond yields to hover close to their current levels. This will continue to drive investors into higher-yielding asset classes, such as real estate, where the yield premium over bonds is close to …
6th March 2015
Recent economic developments in the euro-zone suggest increased scope for yield compression in commercial property markets. As such, in our latest Analyst we have increased our forecasts for capital value growth across most markets. … QE to boost …
4th March 2015
Although French employment growth is forecast to remain lethargic, the limited development pipeline and occupiers’ preference for modern, centrally-located space will drive an improvement in the balance between supply and demand in the Paris CBD. As such, …
26th February 2015
Weak economic fundamentals are leading to a growing divergence in the performance of Helsinki property types. While the wider market is likely to struggle further, CBD rents are set to rise gradually and strong investor demand for these assets will ensure …
23rd February 2015
Dublin office take-up reached a seven-year high in 2014, helping to drive rental values up by 34%. And, with the economic outlook strong and office supply conditions tightening rapidly, 2015 looks set to be characterised by another year of strong rental …
19th February 2015
A softening of economic growth in many countries across both Emerging Europe and non-euro-zone Western Europe helps to explain the relative lack of action in terms of rental movements in Q4. The big exception was Moscow, where occupier markets declined …
18th February 2015
Euro-zone commercial property investment volumes reached a record high in the fourth quarter of 2014. Such strong investment flows meant that competition for assets was strong, which in turn led to yields narrowing in many markets. With property values …
13th February 2015
Brussels office vacancy has been falling, but this is mostly attributable to the conversion of obsolete stock to residential uses, rather than expansionary activity. And with economic growth in Belgium appearing to falter in recent months, we have cut our …
10th February 2015
Calculating implied yield expectations from RICS commercial property survey results suggests that respondents believe yields are close to their troughs in most office markets. Yet given that the spreads of office yields over bonds are close to record …
5th February 2015
As oil prices have continued to fall, the prospects for economic growth and occupier demand in the Norwegian property markets have softened. However, with the krone now beginning to look cheap, growing demand from international investors will compete …
3rd February 2015
Despite a fall in USD-denominated Moscow all-property rents of 16% in Q4, currency depreciation means that rents rose in ruble terms by 19%. That seems unsustainable. Short-term uncertainty complicates our forecasts, but a further fall in all-property …
29th January 2015
The real impact of the ECB’s new QE programme on GDP growth and occupier demand will initially be stymied by the Greek election results and the ensuing debt re-negotiations. However, investors will be further driven from low-yielding fixed income assets …
27th January 2015
The growing risk of a deflationary spiral means the Polish Central Bank is likely to reduce interest rates to support demand. But the fall in the zloty against the Swiss franc could nevertheless dampen occupier demand for retail and office space, as …
21st January 2015
