Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Our upwardly revised forecasts for 10-year euro-zone government bond yields imply a sharper rise in prime property yields towards the end of our five-year forecast horizon. That said, the stronger economic outlook should ensure that prime yields edge down …
20th April 2017
Oslo’s house price boom is likely to indirectly support the office market, by driving a level of office-to-residential conversions that will almost equal the delivery of new office space in the next few years. Coupled with a gradual pickup in expansionary …
13th April 2017
German cities have seen some of the largest falls in industrial yields across Europe in recent years, pushing the spread over offices down to new lows. Given structural changes in the market, this need not be cause for alarm, although we would be most …
12th April 2017
Upgrades to the outlook for employment in the Czech Republic for 2017 and 2018 mean that office vacancy rates will stay close to current lows, driving rental growth of 3.5% in 2017 and 1% in 2018. … Prague office rental growth prospects revised …
7th April 2017
Investor appetite for commercial property in Spain appears to be fading. But with valuations still some way from looking stretched, and a positive outlook for rents, we believe that prime property should continue to offer some of the best total returns …
5th April 2017
Strong investor demand for core stock is pushing prime yields in Finland close to overvalued territory on our valuation measure. However, we think that industrial yields can fall into this value bracket without investors needing to panic. … Helsinki …
30th March 2017
With limited development pipelines, office markets in Frankfurt and Hamburg look set to tighten further over the next three years. However, rising completions in Berlin could see vacancy start to rise, limiting the upside for rental growth. … Could office …
29th March 2017
We expect Brussels office rents to climb slowly over the next five years. But even if this proves too tall an order, we think the city’s high initial yield should make it attractive for prospective investors. … Brussels offices offer solid returns for …
24th March 2017
The Italian economy has started the year on a strong footing. But GDP and employment growth are expected to slow this year. Combined with a rise in completions, that will act as a brake on the pace of any rental recovery in Milan’s office market. … Slow …
23rd March 2017
The findings of CBRE’s Investor Intentions Survey support some of the key themes and key calls that we have highlighted for 2017 in European real estate markets. … Investor intentions show overall demand staying …
17th March 2017
Weaker real wage growth in France will cause consumer spending growth to slow over the next couple of years. This will lead to softer demand for prime high street units in the French regional cities, causing rental growth to slow in 2018 and 2019. … …
15th March 2017
The sharp rise in prime Copenhagen retail rents is difficult to square with national consumer sector trends. But it does seem to reflect Copenhagen’s relatively strong housing recovery and a decent contribution from tourism. We believe the outlook for …
10th March 2017
Higher Budapest office capital values mean that new development is increasingly viable, with developers now in-line to make healthy profits. But, higher levels of supply will cause rents to flatline in 2019 and 2020. In the interim though, we think rents …
8th March 2017
Robust economic growth and a limited supply pipeline will see Stockholm prime office rents record further gains on top of 2016’s surge. And although a hawkish turn from the Riksbank later in the year would curb yield falls, overly dovish monetary policy …
3rd March 2017
Concerns about higher inflation and potential rises in interest rates have seen bond yields rise in the last few months. Nevertheless, we think the outlook for bond yields and therefore, property yields, is fairly sanguine. This will mean that property …
27th February 2017
We see euro-zone GDP growth slowing this year due to the drag from higher inflation and political uncertainty. With no monetary policy tightening on the horizon, further falls in prime yields will continue to drive capital values higher over the next two …
Stagnant rental values in the prime Paris retail sector over the past couple of years have seen the view that rental values have reached a ceiling gain momentum. But we believe that the factors which caused the 2011-2015 surge in rents are likely to come …
20th February 2017
Bond yields increased in Q4 and have generally climbed further since. This has meant that, despite a counter-balancing effect from lower equity dividend yields, property yields have begun to look overvalued in a wider range of markets and sectors. … …
17th February 2017
Strong demand resulting from Ireland’s economic recovery combined with limited supply has pushed prime industrial rents in Dublin up by 45% since 2013. Even so, with these tailwinds set to continue, we think rents will move higher still. … Rise in Dublin …
15th February 2017
Steady economic growth in Western Europe has been positive for rental growth, helping to support yield falls in Q4. However, in Emerging Europe, the picture is more mixed, with the Czech Republic occupier markets continuing to thrive, while Istanbul has …
13th February 2017
Strong investor demand for euro-zone commercial property assets saw investment volumes hit a record high in the fourth quarter of last year. What’s more, competition for assets saw the all-property prime yield fall by a further 10bps, pushing it below 4% …
Over the last eight years, the exceptionally loose monetary policy environment in Europe appears to have driven a change in the dynamics of the relationship between prime office yields, risk-free rates and economic activity. In the absence of any major …
10th February 2017
An increase in the Paris development pipeline for 2017 means that our previous forecast for office rents this year is now unlikely to be met. Instead, we now expect prime rents to grow by just 1.5% this year, although a renewed fall in vacancy should then …
1st February 2017
A slowdown in Spanish economic activity and rising office developments are set to weigh on prime office rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid over the coming years. Nonetheless, growth in both cities will still be some of the strongest in Europe. … Growth …
30th January 2017
Commercial property investment across Europe fell last year for the first time since 2009, driven by a large decline in the UK. Yet increased investment in Europe ex-UK and upbeat investor sentiment suggest that property should perform pretty well in …
26th January 2017
On the surface, lower levels of fund-raising in 2016 hint at concerns about pricing at this stage of the cycle. However, in light of tough competition for prime assets and a heightened perception of risk denting demand for secondary assets, we believe the …
24th January 2017
Political and economic uncertainty this year could drive increased volatility in sovereign bond yields in Southern Europe. But in the absence of a sharp and sustained shift higher, we think prime property will still be attractive to investors, though the …
18th January 2017
A weak economy means that prime rents in the Milan and Rome retail markets are more likely to stagnate this year than to repeat 2015’s sharp increase. We have pencilled in modest increases in rental values in 2018, but cannot rule out a weaker outcome. … …
16th January 2017
Following a record 2015, investment activity in Germany slipped a little in 2016. However, prime office yields fell further in Q4, suggesting that investors still see value in the German market. … Investment in Germany slips, but pricing continues to …
13th January 2017
Prime retail rents in Dublin have topped the euro-zone league table for growth since 2014. With good consumer spending prospects and tight supply, we think that rents in the Irish capital will continue to see some of the strongest growth across the …
11th January 2017
Five of the six largest Nordic investment transactions in 2016 involved portfolios in Sweden. We think that reflects growing confidence in the outlook for non-prime properties in the region’s largest economy and that such confidence is well-founded. … …
6th January 2017
As a new year begins and investors focus on key themes and forecasts for the year ahead, we have taken the opportunity to outline some of our key calls for 2017 and the thinking behind them. … Six key calls for European commercial property in …
4th January 2017
Low vacancy rates and high capital values are driving high levels of logistics development in the Netherlands. Although we see potential for rents to tick up in the next few years, we do not expect them to grow substantially, as large occupiers are happy …
22nd December 2016
The ECB’s recent announcement of a slower rate of asset purchases is not a sign that the normalisation in euro-zone monetary policy has moved closer. We therefore expect Bund yields to be still close to current levels in two years’ time. That means that …
16th December 2016
A slowing Swiss economy doesn’t bode well for the near-term outlook for office and industrial rents in Geneva and Zurich. But with prime retail rents seemingly disconnected from the domestic economy, demand from international luxury retailers should push …
14th December 2016
Tight supply and a positive demand outlook point towards a rise in prime German industrial rents. Indeed, we think rental growth prospects are relatively strong compared to the last ten years. … Signs point towards higher German industrial …
9th December 2016
Contrary to popular belief, we think that it has been the strength of the domestic economy, rather than firms relocating to Romania on cost grounds, which has caused prime Bucharest industrial rents to soar. Further solid growth in consumer demand should …
7th December 2016
As in the euro-zone, monetary policy is set to stay loose in the rest of Europe keeping real estate attractive. That said, the current phase of falling yields is set to end in 2019 in Western European markets, but yields in Eastern Europe should keep …
2nd December 2016
Although government bond yields have ticked up recently, modest rates of GDP growth across the euro-zone and a low interest rate environment will continue to be positive for capital values over the next couple of years. Indeed, at the all-property level, …
We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to stay weak, prompting interest rates to stay low and supporting valuations of prime property assets. In this environment, property yields can continue falling over the next two years, by more than the driving …
28th November 2016
Italian government bond yields have almost doubled over the past few weeks. Nevertheless, we do not see this as a reason for property investors to panic and expect prime Italian property yields to move lower over the next couple of years. … Should …
24th November 2016
Retail rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid has slowed recently, despite the continued strength of retail sales. With weaker domestic demand on the horizon, rental growth is likely to ease further. But this should prove to be a short-term blip, with …
18th November 2016
A middling couple of quarters for economic growth help explain the somewhat weak performance of rental values in Q3. However, investment activity generally held up well and strong demand for prime product kept downward pressure on prime yields this …
11th November 2016
The pace at which all-property euro-zone yields are falling picked up in Q3. The 11bp decline was larger than the 6bp fall in Q2 and broad-based across both sectors and markets. As a result, capital values appreciated by more than in Q2 despite a slight …
Prime property yields in Germany continue to fall. Yet, despite being well below pre-financial crisis lows, commercial property still looks fairly valued relative to other assets. With the ultra-loose monetary policy environment set to continue, we think …
7th November 2016
Bond and equity dividend yields fell in Q3 meaning that, although property yields ticked down again, relative property valuations tended to improve over the quarter. … Property yields still have room for …
4th November 2016
Prime retail rents in Lisbon have risen by more than one-third in the last six years, supported by policy reform, a rise in tourist numbers and an economic recovery. But, with slower economic growth ahead, we expect the recent rapid pace of rental growth …
3rd November 2016
Prime office rents in the German capital, Berlin, have surged this year. With a positive economic environment and limited development pipeline, the rise in rental values has further to run. … Rally in Berlin office rents not over …
28th October 2016
The prevailing view is that European property yields have essentially reached their trough. But we disagree and have pencilled in falls of 40bps from here. Nevertheless, it is prudent to ask what could derail our bullish forecasts. … What might derail our …
21st October 2016
The first European investment data for Q3 show that volumes were down sharply compared to the same quarter a year ago. But that was driven by subdued activity in the UK which, being one of the most traded commercial property markets in the region, had a …
18th October 2016
