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Although property yields ticked down only slightly in Q1, rises in both government bond yields and equity dividend yields meant that property valuations deteriorated. For the first time since we have been producing valuation scores, the majority of our 93 …
23rd May 2018
A number of indicators suggest that the current cycle is running out of steam. Although investment across the euro-zone was up compared to the first quarter of last year, on a four-quarter basis, it appears that it may well have peaked. At the same time, …
18th May 2018
Economic growth is likely to have softened in both Western Europe and Emerging Europe in Q1. Nevertheless, take-up of office space stayed strong and rental values in all three sectors were stable or rose, with the exception of Istanbul. Investment …
Q1 data indicate a rise in prime Dublin retail rents, following last year’s stagnation. With strong demand and supply fundamentals, we think rents will rise further over the next couple of years, but not at the double-digit growth rates that preceded last …
11th May 2018
As the ECB starts to tighten monetary policy, higher risk-free rates are likely to put upward pressure on property yields. However, we think that real equilibrium interest rates are now lower than in the past. As a result, property yields are unlikely to …
8th May 2018
NB. Please download the attached pdf for the full publication with charts. Dire predictions for US shopping centre closures appear relatively well-founded. However, for a variety of reasons – including more defensive lease terms, lower stock per capita …
3rd May 2018
Following last year’s fall in take-up, recent signs that the German economy is coming off the boil raise questions about industrial and logistics demand. However, we think that the economic outlook is still positive. While a lack of available space may …
1st May 2018
Strong demand for industrial space in Bucharest has pushed vacancy down to very low levels. Yet prime rents have been flat for the past 18 months as rising capital values have supported new developments. While rents are likely to continue to mark time …
26th April 2018
As the balance of supply and demand in Amsterdam offices shifts yet further in favour of landlords, we expect the vacancy rate to fall to around 4.5% and prime rents to climb to €450/sqm/yr by the end of 2019, equivalent to a 12% increase from the end of …
19th April 2018
A quick internet search suggests that blockchain technology could have far-reaching changes for a multitude of industries, including commercial property. But even if the technology doesn’t live up to its hype, it could still help to improve the efficiency …
18th April 2018
Demand for office space in Warsaw will continue to grow in the coming years, but this will not be enough to offset around 1m sqm of new stock completing over that same period. In fact, rental value falls are likely to gather speed in 2020 as the economy …
13th April 2018
A shortage of Grade-A stock in the Paris CBD threatens to drive a sharp lift in rental values. However, a large quantity of new supply in the wider Paris Centre-West market this year means that we are sticking to our existing forecast for prime rents to …
9th April 2018
Occupier demand in Milan is likely to stay healthy again this year, supporting further rental growth. But with completions expected to rise and rents close to previous highs, we don’t expect to see a repeat of last year’s 8% jump in rents. … Completions …
5th April 2018
Improved short-term prospects in Stockholm will keep office rents in the city amongst the fastest growing European markets in the next few years. However, with yield falls now at an end, total returns will slow dramatically in the second half of the year …
4th April 2018
Commercial property investment in Germany last year fell just shy of 2007’s record. However, the headline number was inflated by rising capital values and a shift towards larger deals. We think the market will now start to cool as investors become …
29th March 2018
Property yield falls will be limited in Scandinavia this year as the region’s markets are looking increasingly late-cycle. The prospects are somewhat brighter in Emerging Europe, where yields can continue to fall this year in all sectors and, indeed, into …
20th March 2018
The upswing in euro-zone economic growth will underpin occupier demand. However, rising development will act as a headwind for rental growth. Indeed, in the office, retail and industrial sectors, we think rental growth has now peaked. … Rental growth has …
A tightening office market bodes well for prime rents in Moscow. But with poor demographics and unemployment already very low, the labour market will prevent a rapid pick-up in rental growth. … Headwinds loom for Moscow office …
6th March 2018
With transaction volumes having fallen sharply last year and domestic investors looking further afield for value, stretched valuations in Sweden are likely to mean that prime yields have found a floor. … Could Sweden be the canary in the …
28th February 2018
Strong occupier demand and higher rents have helped to lift Berlin’s office development pipeline. On its own, the current level of construction is likely to result in a sharp slowdown in rental growth, but add in the office development pipeline and the …
22nd February 2018
Although there was little movement in government bond yields and equity dividend yields in Q4, further declines in property yields mean that valuations have generally worsened this quarter. Over 40% of all markets that we cover are now overvalued and this …
16th February 2018
Last year, prime office rents in Lisbon recorded their strongest gain since the financial crisis. While occupier conditions are set to stay landlord friendly, slower employment growth and higher office completions mean that we expect the rate of rental …
15th February 2018
Investment activity across the euro-zone reached a new record in 2017. However, fourth quarter activity fell in annual terms for the first time since the financial crisis. Investor appetite for retail assets continues to wane; the sector saw investment …
9th February 2018
Solid economic growth in both Western and Emerging Europe appears to have continued into Q4. This kept expansionary activity amongst occupiers at strong levels. This, in turn, has driven vacancy rates lower almost across the board in the last 12 months, …
The last five years have seen prime office rents in Dublin fully recover from their post-crisis lows. But we now think that a lower natural rate of vacancy and growing pipeline will see rents start to fall in 2019. … Calling time on the recovery in Dublin …
6th February 2018
The political crisis in Catalonia has not prevented prime office rents in Barcelona from rising in Q4. We see prime rents rising again in both Barcelona and Madrid this year and next, though the fading strength of Spain’s economic recovery will take the …
1st February 2018
The latest RICS global commercial property monitor for Q4 2017 indicates that there has been no significant change to the upbeat mood across European markets compared to Q3. This is perhaps not too surprising given the buoyant economic backdrop. Yet the …
29th January 2018
The combination of strong consumer spending growth and rising tourism appears to have been behind the sharp rise in prime retail rents in Milan and Rome last year. With these conditions set to continue, 2018 should be another good year for rents. … A …
25th January 2018
Following another record year for commercial property investment in continental Europe in 2017, we expect investment activity to fall back this year. What’s more, with high interest rates and slower economic growth further ahead, we think that this will …
22nd January 2018
Industrial take-up in the four main German cities continues to rise. Yet prime rents in Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich have been largely unchanged for 18 months. Even so, with occupier fundamentals continuing to favour landlords, the outlook for …
12th January 2018
Reduced capital raising totals for the second consecutive year and a decrease in the proportion of funds meeting their fund-raising targets hint at pricing concerns amongst investors. … European property looks increasingly …
10th January 2018
Rising consumer prosperity and confidence in Belgium will support decent retailer activity in the next couple of years. However, plentiful supply in Brussels will keep rental growth subdued, allowing Antwerp to outperform. … Brussels simmering, but …
5th January 2018
After three consecutive years of mostly yield-driven double-digit capital growth, the outlook for European commercial property in 2018 is less positive – we believe that the prime market has now passed its peak in all aspects – investment activity, the …
3rd January 2018
Prime rental value growth in Oslo is likely to enjoy a bumper year in 2018, with rental values set to climb by around 8%. But the consensus has yet to pick up on the momentum that is starting to build. … Oslo office rents to surprise to the upside in …
20th December 2017
Solid economic growth prospects in most of Europe bode well for occupier demand and prime rents in the next few years. However, better growth is likely to be a double-edged sword for commercial property, with monetary policy starting to tighten and bond …
15th December 2017
Against a backdrop of solid economic growth, the outlook for occupier demand and rental growth is encouraging. But with prime property yields close to finding a floor, and tighter monetary policy on the horizon, the days of strong, yield-driven, capital …
Even with prime commercial property yields in Germany plumbing new lows, investment activity is still strong. But with tighter monetary policy on the horizon, property yields are at threat from rising risk-free rates. With a poor outlook for capital value …
11th December 2017
Solid economic growth, structural changes, as well as tightening availability and limited land for development will support particularly robust rental growth in Paris in the next few years, where we have upgraded our forecasts. Rents in Lyon will also …
8th December 2017
With some of the tightest office markets, core European cities are set to see the best rates of rental growth over the 2018-21 period. However, with lower current yields and a weaker outlook for capital values, total returns will be relatively poor. But …
1st December 2017
Prime German retail rents are coming under pressure from softer occupier demand and online competition, despite the strong consumer sector. We now expect rents to stagnate over the next couple of years, though some further weakness can’t be ruled out. … …
29th November 2017
The European economic recovery has been extended into the final quarter of the year, yet inflation remains well below target in most economies. As a result, occupier demand continued in a strong vein, driving office vacancy rates lower, although prime …
23rd November 2017
Investment across the euro-zone in Q3 reached a record for a third quarter, supported by increasing amounts of foreign capital. However, with the prime all-property yield falling by just 5bps, the same decline as in Q2, investors appear to have entered a …
Falls in many government bond yields and in equity dividend yields this quarter meant that despite small falls in property yields, overall valuation scores improved slightly this quarter. Nevertheless, more than a third of all markets that we cover look …
15th November 2017
Following the Spanish government’s decision to invoke Article 155 of the constitution and take control of the regional administration of Catalonia, the political temperature in the region has tempered somewhat. So now is a good time to look at what recent …
10th November 2017
Taking account of the ECB’s dovish tone at its last meeting, we have lowered our Bund yield forecasts for the next few years. As a result, the Bank’s stance bodes well for commercial property yields, which are likely to come under less upward pressure in …
7th November 2017
Solid but slowing rates of employment growth in Sweden will provide continued impetus for Stockholm office rents. This will keep Stockholm towards the top of the pack in our total return rankings for the next four years, meaning that investors able to get …
2nd November 2017
French investment activity appears to have peaked and prime yield falls have slowed markedly. Whilst it’s likely to be true that this reflects a lack of large, prime stock, we expect 2016 to have marked the peak of the investment cycle in France and …
26th October 2017
Q3 investment in mainland European commercial property was the highest on record for a third quarter, despite pricing concerns. At the same time, a lack of prime assets in key markets appears to be lifting demand in second-tier markets. … Valuation …
24th October 2017
E-commerce is taking an increasing share of total retail sales across Europe, but its reach and impact in the short-to-medium-term will vary by country and across different retailer types. … How does the impact of e-commerce vary in …
20th October 2017
The improving economic environment in Norway, coupled with strong urban population growth, as well as low inflation and interest rates, will support real retail rental growth in Oslo high streets in the next few years, despite a marked softening in the …
16th October 2017
