Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
Industrial rental growth in Dublin has accelerated this year. But as softer economic growth ahead dampens occupier demand, this increase in rental growth will prove temporary. … Pick-up in Dublin industrial rental growth won’t …
30th November 2018
The number of European property markets that appear to be overvalued continues to rise. With prime property yields still edging lower and government bond yields higher in Q3, the majority of markets recorded a deterioration in valuation scores. What’s …
20th November 2018
Office occupier demand was again strong this quarter, driving vacancy rates lower and rental values higher in a number of markets. The retail and industrial sectors saw only limited rental growth though, reflecting retailer caution and strong growth of …
9th November 2018
Investor demand for commercial property assets in the euro-zone continues to see prime yields edge lower, particularly in the office and industrial sectors, albeit falls of 4bps and 7bps respectively at the euro-zone level suggest they are close to a …
Delays on development projects mean that demand will comfortably exceed completions next year, driving rental values higher again. Thereafter, annual completions could reach in excess of 300,000 sqm, or 8% of stock, in both 2020 and 2021, driving vacancy …
2nd November 2018
The number of retail markets seeing prime rents stagnate or fall is at the highest level since 2009. But there are good reasons why that number is more likely to rise than to reverse over the next year or two. … Prime retail rents increasingly likely to …
1st November 2018
Dublin’s large office pipeline has started to push vacancy higher, in spite of strong take-up volumes. As occupier demand softens, further increases in vacancy will start to put downward pressure on prime rents. … Dublin office rents set to fall on rising …
26th October 2018
With no obvious indication that French property investment will change significantly next year, our upcoming forecasting round is likely to see a flattening in our property yield profile for 2019. … Plateauing French investment points to stable …
23rd October 2018
The short-term outlook for prime retail occupier demand in Barcelona and Madrid should support a further rise in rents next year. But with a number of headwinds on the horizon, rental growth is likely to come to a standstill in 2020. … Headwinds loom for …
19th October 2018
Falling vacancy will drive up prime office rents in Oslo by around 14% by the end of 2020. And, with government bond yields forecast to stabilise at about 2%, there will be little upward pressure on property yields. This means that office capital values …
17th October 2018
A slowdown in retail sales growth helps to explain why logistics take-up volumes in Germany’s main cities have been weaker than across the rest of Germany. While the retail sector should pick-up next year, the boost to take-up is likely to be short-lived. …
12th October 2018
The increasing maturity of the Czech property market means that, despite signs of slowing rental growth, the rise in Czech government bond yields will not be mirrored in property yields. … Could Czech property yields be about to turn …
10th October 2018
With the economic outlook in Italy softening, the likelihood of weaker tenant demand at a time of rising completions means that we have lowered our forecasts for rental growth in 2019 and 2020. … Clouds darken over Milan office …
5th October 2018
The French economy has disappointed so far this year, but we expect stronger growth in the second half of the year and into 2019. This will be positive for the regional office markets such as Lyon, where vacancy is at 15-year lows and demand for space is …
2nd October 2018
Spain’s strong economic recovery has driven higher levels of demand for logistics space. But with manufacturing output slowing and the prospect of weaker export growth ahead, occupier demand is likely to start to soften, acting as a headwind for rental …
28th September 2018
Changing shopping patterns and pockets of new supply in both Amsterdam and Rotterdam have meant that Dutch high street rents have not performed as well as might be expected given the strong consumer fundamentals. We expect both factors to keep rents …
26th September 2018
Lisbon was one of the best performing retail markets last year, as high street rents rose by 14%, reflecting healthy retailer activity. But with the strength of key drivers fading, we expect rental growth to slow. … Lisbon retail tailwinds …
24th September 2018
Our updated yield model points to prime euro-zone office yields rising by only around 5bps by the end of 2020. This is notably less than our forecast, which points to a rise of 20bps in the same period. However, country-specific factors in Italy, in …
20th September 2018
The full impact of Poland’s new Sunday trading laws is yet to become clear. But, coupled with a large pipeline in Warsaw, we think that rental growth in the capital will slow to 1.5% in both 2019 and 2020. In Krakow, however, we see vacancy falling and …
14th September 2018
With property yields in emerging Europe sitting above their pre-crisis lows and those in central Europe looking relatively well-placed on our valuation measure, we think that yields in the region can continue to edge down next year, by as much as 15bps at …
12th September 2018
Rates of rental and capital value growth are set to slow in Scandinavia and Switzerland, but Copenhagen industrial property still looks attractive. Total returns will be higher in Emerging Europe, thanks to valuations that are less stretched than in …
7th September 2018
The pace of economic growth in the euro-zone economy appears to have peaked in this cycle. At the same time, commercial property markets look to be plateauing as investment volumes track sideways and prime yields appear close to their likely floor. While …
Property yields ticked down only slightly again in Q2, but there were more meaningful shifts in the yields of other assets. Safe-haven markets generally saw an improvement in property valuations. However, higher bond and dividend yields in riskier markets …
31st August 2018
In the middle of last year, Helsinki offices stood out as a strong late-cycle play. But with the positive yield gap to Stockholm now closed, that opportunity has passed. Nevertheless, in the absence of a shock, we expect prime offices in the city to …
29th August 2018
Office capital values in Germany appear to be on an inexorable upward path. Although a sharp correction seems unlikely, there are good reasons to believe that they will peak in 2018. … How much further can German office values …
22nd August 2018
The second quarter of the year saw further signs that the euro-zone property market upswing is close to an end. With a 5% annual fall in investment, activity is now starting to track sideways on a four-quarter rolling basis. Very few office and retail …
15th August 2018
Economic growth recovered somewhat in Western Europe, but slowed further in emerging Europe in Q2. Occupier activity has still been strong, but rates of rental growth slowed across the board. Similarly, investment volumes dropped off and yield falls were …
Property investment fell back sharply in Q2, keeping our prediction of an annual slowdown in activity firmly on track. Even so, investment will be cooling from levels which are high by historical standards and the breakdown still points to pockets of …
10th August 2018
In this follow-up to our recent Global Economics Focus “Why is property so often the source of trouble?” we assess where in the world the biggest risks to property prices lie. House price falls in a number of places look imminent. And there are several …
8th August 2018
A high volume of completions contributed to the fall in prime office rents in Vienna in the early stages of this year. But as that supply is absorbed, rents should be able to recover again next year. Even so, with capital values peaking, total returns …
7th August 2018
With Turkey’s economy heading for a sharp slowdown, further weakness in the lira and high availability of office space, the decline in prime office rents in Istanbul has further to run. … No Turkish delight for Istanbul office …
3rd August 2018
It is now ten years since the property-induced global financial crisis and house prices in many countries are rising rapidly again. So now seems like a good time to assess whether property, residential and commercial, is on course to cause trouble for the …
2nd August 2018
A lack of available space and high rental levels in Amsterdam are boosting office demand in Rotterdam. Investment demand has already increased, but is set to stay strong in the next couple of years, driving the yield gap to Amsterdam lower, helping total …
Strong occupier demand and limited completions have boosted prime Frankfurt office rents. But with demand likely to ease and completions on the rise, this pick-up in rental growth is unlikely to last long. … Pick-up in Frankfurt office rents won’t be …
25th July 2018
European office markets have started the year in buoyant mood, with take-up reaching a post-crisis high, vacancy rates falling and rents climbing by around 2.5%. Nevertheless, as we outlined at the start of the year, we still expect a slowing in momentum …
23rd July 2018
The recent spike in Italian government bond yields is likely to be sustained for the foreseeable future, increasing the risk of a sharper re-pricing for Italian commercial property than we are forecasting. … Higher Italian bond yields increase risks for …
20th July 2018
Growing occupier demand for industrial units close to the German and Austrian borders will offset the slower economic growth that we are expecting in the next few years in the CEE markets. This will prompt growth of the industrial stock in those areas and …
18th July 2018
A lack of good quality space is positive for prime rents in Athens. But with the Greek economy far from being in good health, rental growth prospects will be constrained in spite of the recent economic upturn. … Athens slowly turning a corner, but risks …
13th July 2018
A positive economic outlook for Belgium and a shortage of available Grade A stock bode well for office rents in Brussels. Foreign investors, in particular, are increasing exposure to the market as it also offers above-average income returns. We therefore …
11th July 2018
Prime industrial rents in Dublin jumped by close to 5% in Q1, driven by strong demand. But with Ireland’s economy cooling, and the prospect of increased speculative development, the easing in the rate of rental growth since mid-2016 looks set to continue. …
5th July 2018
Record investment activity in Denmark underscores the positive outlook for returns in Copenhagen, especially in the industrial sector, which we expect to be the best-performing market in Western Europe. … Healthy outlook for returns supports case for …
4th July 2018
As rising US Treasury yields have squeezed US property’s yield gap over the risk-free rate, investment volumes have dropped back and core office yields are rising. While Europe is lagging the US, there are good reasons to believe that European property …
29th June 2018
The Swiss economy is forecast to put in a fairly decent performance over the next couple of years. But with strong office development pipelines, and already high retail rents, we think that the outlook for rental growth in the office and retail sectors is …
28th June 2018
Although prime office yields in Madrid have been flat for the past year, pricing doesn’t appear to be obviously stretched. And while capital value growth is largely done, good rental growth prospects mean that Madrid still looks decent on a risk-return …
22nd June 2018
Over the last decade, Helsinki, Oslo and Stockholm have experienced a reduction in floorspace per employee. As a result, firms have been able to pay higher prime rents than previously. We think that this trend has further to run, meaning that, even though …
15th June 2018
A solid employment growth outlook, combined with relatively small development pipelines will enable a weighted average of Western European office rents to climb by around 8% p.a. in the 2018-20 period. However, a shortage of modern stock in central areas …
12th June 2018
The economic backdrop continues to be supportive of occupier markets, in spite of the euro-zone’s weaker-than-expected start to the year. But with the growth expected to slow, investment volumes treading water, and yield compression fading out, the market …
8th June 2018
The cycle in Scandinavia and Switzerland is showing signs of turning, with investment activity down compared to 2017 and 2016. The prospects are brighter in Emerging Europe, where yields are likely to fall throughout 2018 and even into 2019 in some cities …
In the absence of a sharp surge in euro-zone inflation, a fresh recession or protracted stagnation, or a major escalation of current political tensions, property yields are more likely to drift slowly higher over the next few of years, than to spike. … …
30th May 2018
Retail letting volumes in Germany’s main cities have been trending downwards over the past few years, putting upwards pressure on the spread between prime and secondary yields. With demand for secondary locations more exposed to online competition and a …
25th May 2018
