Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Commercial Property Use setting Europe Commercial Property
The poor performance of retail is the main story in Scandinavian and Swiss markets, contrasting with solid industrial and office returns. In emerging Europe, the retail sector is expected to do better, thanks to solid rental growth and yield compression. …
21st June 2019
With the ECB likely to loosen monetary policy before too long, government bond yields look set to stay at very low levels for some time. As a result, we think that yield compression has a little further to run this year and next. That is, with the …
18th June 2019
Concerns about rental growth prospects appear to be behind rising prime shopping centre yields. While we anticipate high street yields to rise also, a smaller correction will see the yield spread widen further. … Shopping centre yield spread over high …
5th June 2019
With Russian government bond yields expected to continue falling this year, we think that the rise in Moscow office yields in Q1 will prove temporary and that they will end the year at 9%, down from 9.3%. … Rise in Moscow office yields to be …
30th May 2019
Lower government bond and equity dividend yields improved the relative valuation of commercial property assets in Q1. Indeed, less than half of the 93 property markets now appear overvalued, with the office sector recording the largest improvement. With …
29th May 2019
A further slowdown in the rate of yield compression suggests that investors are increasingly nervous about pricing at this late stage of the cycle. We expect this to continue, especially given the softer economic environment. Euro-zone office and …
24th May 2019
Occupier demand is strong in all three sectors, with solid economic growth supporting expansion, although we expect this to slow through the course of the year, dampening rental growth in all sectors. Retailers are facing pressures on costs and, with …
Prime office yields in Berlin have been stable over the past 18 months, in spite of strong rental growth expectations. With tighter monetary policy now some way off, and yields on assets with a similar level of risk back at historical lows, we think …
17th May 2019
Warsaw office demand is likely to slow over the next two years, while completions of new space will increase. But, we still expect to see an overall rise in prime CBD rents in the next few years. … Have Warsaw office rents really turned a …
14th May 2019
In spite of healthy occupier demand of late, poor rental growth prospects mean that total returns from Dublin offices will continue to be amongst the lowest in the euro-zone. … Returns from Dublin offices to slip …
10th May 2019
Western European office rents grew by 5.3% p.a. in 2016-18. We expect them to grow by little more than that over the next three years combined , as occupier demand slows and development completions pick up. This will see the sector’s rental growth …
2nd May 2019
A period of low, but stable growth and historically low interest rates will be supportive of demand for French assets over the next few years. While the retail sector is seeing evidence of some re-pricing, continued growth in demand for logistics assets …
26th April 2019
Limited availability and a small pipeline will support further logistics rental growth in Barcelona. As a result, total returns will outperform those of Madrid and be amongst the highest in the euro-zone. … Rental growth to boost Barcelona logistics …
25th April 2019
With prime rents in Rotterdam expected to grow by 7.5% in the next three years, we expect strong investor demand for the city to drive some of the largest office sector yield falls in Europe. This will see Rotterdam produce total returns of 10% p.a. in …
18th April 2019
Demand for CBD space is starting to reignite prime rental growth in Geneva and Zurich. But a weakening economy and competition from new, well-connected developments will limit further gains in rents. … Swiss office rents to rise, but challenges …
17th April 2019
The continued growth of Copenhagen’s logistics market, set against its low vacancy rate and limited new supply, means that it is one of our strongest markets for both rental growth and yield falls in the next two years. What’s more, over the full forecast …
12th April 2019
A weak economic environment, and occupiers prepared to look outside traditional industrial locations which offer better value for money, will hold back the growth in prime industrial rents. But tight industrial availability around Germany’s main urban …
11th April 2019
Driven by falls in capital values, total returns from office and retail assets in Italy are forecast to be at the bottom of the euro-zone pack. Industrial returns will be better, but still just below the euro-zone average. … Returns from Italian assets to …
4th April 2019
Our latest forecasts paint a bright picture for Stockholm office returns over the next few years, supported by “lower for longer” bond yields and another upgrade to rental value growth. … Stockholm offices deserve renewed …
2nd April 2019
With the euro-zone economy set for a period of weak growth, the outlook for rental growth across the sectors is poor. While this would normally lessen the case for yields to fall further, with risk-free rates expected to stay at very low levels, we think …
29th March 2019
In Scandinavia and Switzerland, retail will be the clear loser over the next few years, whereas Scandinavian office and industrial markets are set to outperform, led by Stockholm. In emerging Europe, the retail sector is set to perform well, with solid …
The odds have tipped towards the ECB re-starting its QE programme next year. This would increase the likelihood of further reductions in euro-zone prime property yields, but, as yet, this expected shift towards QE alone is not enough for us to revise our …
19th March 2019
Near zero low risk-free rates will support Western European office and industrial pricing, despite a softer rental growth outlook. In contrast, with the retail sector also dealing with structural headwinds, we think that a poorer outlook for income …
15th March 2019
The recent poor performance of “average” retail property will persist over the next few years as investors shy away from risky cash flows. However, we also expect prime high streets to underperform the other sectors, as a handful of markets see softening …
13th March 2019
Helsinki CBD office returns are set to underperform the rest of the city in 2019-20, as the hunt for yield sees investors drive secondary yields lower. However, with prime rents forecast to grow by 3% p.a. in 2019-21, we still see prime CBD offices …
7th March 2019
Over the last year, UK all-property yields have risen above those in the euro-zone for the first time in a decade and we think this gap will widen. This crossover is unusual, but it largely reflects differences in monetary conditions. … Are we too …
4th March 2019
In light of the changes to our valuation weightings this quarter, many markets are closer to fair value than in our last Valuation Monitor . That said, the majority of property markets (51 out of 93) are still overvalued, with valuations against equities …
1st March 2019
With consumer spending growth slowing and the boost to households from rising house prices fading, we think that prime high street rents in Dublin are likely to plateau over the next couple of years. … Weaker retail outlook to hold Dublin …
26th February 2019
The slowdown in euro-zone growth means that rental growth will be weaker and that bond yields are likely to be lower. The net effect of these factors is a downward revision to our forecasts for office yields, which we now expect to be below their current …
22nd February 2019
After two strong years for Lisbon office rents, a rise in development activity, alongside fading occupier demand, is set to curb rental growth in 2020. What’s more, rents could potentially fall in 2021. … Office rental growth in Lisbon to stall in …
19th February 2019
Occupier markets are seeing diverging fortunes, with occupier demand for office and industrial space extremely strong, but retailers battling a number of headwinds. This is likely to set the tone for rental performance in 2019, although slower economic …
15th February 2019
Euro-zone property investment rose by 9% y/y last year to reach a new high of €183bn. But not all markets shared in the spoils, with Italy posting a 20% decline. At the all-property level, yields edged down by 2bps, taking the annual rate of compression …
A weaker outlook for the euro-zone economy reinforces our view that industrial rental growth will slow this year and next. With policy rates on hold, we don’t expect upward pressure on industrial yields yet, but this remains a risk further out. … Will …
8th February 2019
Belgium’s retail sector is under significant pressure from both cyclical and structural forces. As a result, we expect rents to fall again in 2019 and yields to tick upwards slightly. … Troubling times for Belgian …
6th February 2019
With risk-free rates expected to stay low, the continued attractiveness of commercial property returns means that investment in 2019 likely to be close to last year’s record level. … Allure of property to keep investment strong in …
1st February 2019
A poor economic outlook and elevated political risks are unlikely to result in a reversal of the increased risk aversion towards Italian property assets. As a result, investment in Italy is likely to fall again this year. … Further fall in Italian …
30th January 2019
With only a small downgrade to our outlook for the Spanish economy, office occupier demand looks set to stay healthy. As such, rental growth in Barcelona and Madrid will continue to be amongst the strongest in the euro-zone over the next couple of years. …
25th January 2019
A poorer outlook for the German economy has increased the downside risks to our outlook for occupier markets, most notably in the industrial sector as weaker global demand cools export growth. … Re-assessing the outlook for German occupier …
24th January 2019
With plenty of capital still waiting to be deployed and attractive returns on offer, investment in European commercial property is likely to be strong again this year. However, a swing back towards core strategies suggests that investors are increasingly …
18th January 2019
Outperformance in the Nordic economies will support occupier markets and rental growth prospects this year. As a result, we think that investment volumes in 2019 will be close to the level recorded in 2018. … Nordic investment set to maintain its recent …
16th January 2019
A weaker outlook for the euro-zone economy is likely to see a more marked slowdown in rental growth, shifting the risks to property markets on the occupier side. … Sharper euro-zone slowdown increases occupier …
11th January 2019
With interest rates likely to be structurally lower in the future, prime property yields are unlikely to return to historical levels. As such, we have re-weighted our valuation scores to exclude the comparison with the long-term average property yield. …
9th January 2019
Commercial property capital values will rise again in 2019, supported by an improved outlook for yields, which will, at a European level, edge slightly lower this year. However, a weakening economic backdrop will also mean that occupier market momentum …
4th January 2019
A no deal Brexit is unlikely to provide much support for property in the rest of Europe. The negative impact on euro-zone occupier markets should be modest, but investors, rather than reallocate UK capital to continental markets, are most likely to hold …
21st December 2018
Scandinavian property yields are now set to mark time in 2019 before rising from 2020, despite slowing rental growth. Copenhagen industrial is our top pick for the region. Total returns will be higher in emerging Europe, as yields have more scope to fall …
20th December 2018
The euro-zone economy has weakened sharply in 2018. With growth unlikely to regain lost momentum, not only has the outlook for occupier markets deteriorated, but the possibility of the ECB delaying its first interest rate hike has increased. As a result, …
With growth in the euro-zone slowing faster than expected and the chances of the ECB delaying its first interest rate hike increasing, property yields are now more likely to plateau next year, than rise. … Property yields to …
14th December 2018
London office and retail property are set to produce only middling performance in the next few years, when compared to Western Europe’s other major markets. We think London’s large development pipeline will constrain rental value growth in the office …
12th December 2018
With all of the hype around the potential impact of online retailing on industrial occupier demand, there has been a big shift in the relative pricing of industrial assets. Although rents in the UK have surged, supply-side constraints, rather than demand, …
7th December 2018
With Germany’s labour market close to capacity, limited scope for strong employment growth will hurt office occupier demand. As new completions hit the market at the same time, we see rental growth starting to run out of steam. … Office rental growth in …
5th December 2018
