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We forecast a smaller 130,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June. We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings growth likely held steady too, at 3.9% y/y. Payroll gains to remain healthy The 139,000 rise in …
26th June 2025
We forecast a 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May. Federal job losses may increase as severance periods end, but initial claims suggest any impact will once again be modest. We expect the unemployment rate to have held steady, while wage growth …
29th May 2025
We forecast a healthy 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April given that the drag from cuts to the federal workforce still appears minimal. Otherwise, we think the unemployment rate ticked back down to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings growth was …
24th April 2025
DOGE-led layoffs of approximately 25,000 junior federal employees will be a modest drag on March payrolls, but they should be offset a rebound in weather-sensitive sectors. We forecast a smaller yet still healthy 140,000 employment gain and the …
27th March 2025
We forecast a 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February, given that most of the recent cuts to the federal workforce won’t yet have shown up in the data and employment in weather-sensitive sectors should have rebounded to a degree. Otherwise, we think …
27th February 2025
We forecast a 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which would mark a slight acceleration from the recent average if we are right in assuming that there will be downward revision to past payrolls figures. Meanwhile, we think the unemployment rate …
30th January 2025
We forecast a 140,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December. Meanwhile, we expect the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings growth to be unchanged, at 4.2% and 4.0% respectively. Payroll growth to normalise It has been a volatile couple of months, …
2nd January 2025
The reversal of weather- and strike-related disruptions leave us anticipating a 190,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls in November. We expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%, while wage growth should tick down to 3.9%. Hurricane and strike effects …
27th November 2024
We expect the Boeing strike and two recent hurricanes to have temporarily cooled the labour market in October. We think non-farm payrolls rose by 100,000 while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%. Payroll growth limited by strike and hurricanes …
24th October 2024
We think labour market conditions continued to ease in September, with a 100,000 rise in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.3%. Payroll gain to ease further The 142,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in August was stronger than the July …
26th September 2024
We forecast a healthier 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, alongside a small fall in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Wage growth should remain at 3.6%. Together, that would be consistent with a 25bp rate cut by the Fed next month. Beryl impact on …
29th August 2024
We expect a softer 170,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, alongside a more substantial easing in wage growth. The 206,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in June beat expectations, but the accompanying details were disappointing. April and May’s figures …
25th July 2024
We expect a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in June. The unemployment rate probably edged back down to 3.9%, while we expect a renewed slowdown in wage growth. The reacceleration in non-farm payroll growth to 272,000 in May was at odds with other …
27th June 2024
Labour market gradually cooling We forecast another 175,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, with the unemployment rate expected to be unchanged at 3.9%. Wage growth should be unchanged at a muted 3.9%. Healthcare job surge to continue The more modest …
30th May 2024
The fading of weather-related support and broader evidence of easing labour demand lead us to expect a smaller 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in April. We expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.8%, while average hourly earnings growth should …
25th April 2024
We expect non-farm payroll growth to ease to 180,000 in March. The jump in the unemployment rate in February is unlikely to be repeated, and is more likely to be partly reversed. We are sceptical that the recent reacceleration in non-farm payroll growth …
28th March 2024
We expect the February employment report to show that, despite a strong 250,000 rise in non-farm payrolls, wage growth is still on a downward trend. The payrolls data show a dramatic acceleration in employment growth around the turn of the year, with …
29th February 2024
A reversal of the earlier boost from unseasonably mild December weather probably weighed on non-farm payroll growth in January. We expect a more muted 150,000 increase. The annual benchmark revisions should also show a weaker pace of employment growth …
25th January 2024
Employment growth reliant on non-cyclical sectors After the near 200,000 gain in payroll employment in November, which included the return of 47,000 workers who had been on strike, we expect a more muted 150,000 increase in December. We also anticipate a …
2nd January 2024
While we expect the return of striking workers to help non-farm payrolls rise by a stronger 200,000 in November, underlying labour demand probably eased. October’s employment report showed signs of a further loosening in the labour market, with a more …
30th November 2023
After the 336,000 jump in non-farm payrolls in September, we expect a more modest 200,000 increase in October. Moreover, despite some strength in labour demand, wage growth continues to ease. September’s unexpectedly-strong 336,000 rise in non-farm …
26th October 2023
We forecast a 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September as employment growth continues to trend lower, but a government shutdown may disrupt the release of the data on Friday 6 th October. Recent downward revisions took three-month average …
28th September 2023
We forecast a 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August, illustrating that despite the apparent resilience of GDP growth, employment growth is still trending lower. The increases in employment of 185,000 and 187,000 over the previous two months have …
24th August 2023
We expect the July employment report to show a continued gradual slowdown in employment growth and a decline in wage growth to a two-year low. That should give Fed officials a little more confidence that the moderation in core inflation will continue. The …
27th July 2023
Renewed slowdown in payroll growth We think employment growth remained fairly resilient in June and have pencilled in a 250,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. But that would still be a sharp slowdown from May’s surge. Mild slowdown in jobs growth May’s …
29th June 2023
We estimate that employment growth continued to trend gradually lower in May with a 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls. Although the unemployment rate remains exceptionally low, the report should also bring further evidence that wage growth is easing. Jobs …
25th May 2023
We estimate that employment growth continued to trend lower in April, with non-farm payrolls increasing by a more moderate 180,000. That would be the smallest monthly gain in more than two years, but still a healthy enough increase when compared with the …
27th April 2023
We expect the March employment report to show that the labour market was cooling even before the recent banking turmoil, with non-farm payrolls rising by a more modest 200,000 and annual wage growth falling close to a two-year low. The March report comes …
30th March 2023
After the blowout 517,000 gain in January, we expect a more modest 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in February. But given the potential impact of weather and seasonality effects in January there is the possibility of another shock last month, albeit …
2nd March 2023
We expect a more modest 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January. The annual benchmark revisions may also show a sharper slowdown in employment growth over the second half of last year than previously reported. Payrolls on borrowed time The labour …
26th January 2023
We estimate that employment growth slowed more sharply in December, with non-farm payrolls rising by 160,000. The unemployment rate probably edged up to an 11-month high of 3.8%. Although employment growth has been solid in recent months according to the …
3rd January 2023
We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by a more modest 175,000 in November, although that should be sufficient to leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%. Payroll gains slowing only gradually The pace of monthly gains in non-farm …
23rd November 2022
We are pencilling in a further step down in non-farm payroll growth to 225,000 in October and we expect that payrolls will be falling outright by early 2023. Payroll gains have been slowing from their unusually rapid clip earlier in the year, with the …
27th October 2022
We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by a solid 275,000 in September, but a much sharper slowdown looks likely as the Fed’s aggressive tightening feeds through. Employment growth has slowed materially from the rapid pace seen at the start of this …
29th September 2022
We forecast a smaller, but still rapid, 350,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.5%. The blowout 528,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July appeared to underline the ongoing strength of the labour market so far …
25th August 2022
We forecast that non-farm payrolls rose by 250,000 in July which would represent a continuation of the slowdown in the labour market, but would still be far from recessionary territory . Non-farm payroll growth was still as strong as 372,000 in June, …
28th July 2022
We forecast that payroll employment growth slowed fairly sharply in June, but remained solid at 250,000. That should be enough to keep the Fed on track for another 75bp rate hike in July. Employment growth has averaged a rock solid 400,000 over the past …
30th June 2022
We expect that non-farm payroll growth slowed in May, albeit to a still strong 300,000 . Payrolls rose by 428,000 in April, exactly in line with the March pace, representing a slowdown from the 550,000 average monthly gain over the preceding six months. …
26th May 2022
We expect that employment growth continued to trend lower in April, with non-farm payrolls rising by 375,000. Alongside rebounding participation, that easing in labour demand looks set to drive wage growth lower. Payroll gains have averaged a robust …
28th April 2022
We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by 450,000 in March, marking the beginning of a gradual slowdown. The report should also provide further evidence that wage pressures are starting to ease. Payroll employment growth has proved remarkably …
24th March 2022
Reflecting the stronger trend in employment growth apparent in the revised payroll data and the collapse in Omicron cases in February, we expect non-farm payrolls to rise by 600,000 this month. The January employment report included significant upward …
24th February 2022
We suspect that the surge in absenteeism linked to the Omicron variant caused non-farm payrolls to fall by 200,000 in January. But with new virus cases now falling sharply, that hit is likely to be mostly reversed in February. The Omicron wave of …
27th January 2022
The chaos caused by the rapid spread of the Omicron variant came too late to have much effect on December payrolls, which we estimate increased by a healthy 350,000. But the huge numbers of people being told to isolate could drive a significant drop in …
4th January 2022
We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by a solid 500,000 in November, but the growing risk of a winter COVID wave and a dwindling supply of available workers look set to weigh on employment growth soon. October’s 531,000 gain in payrolls was helped by …
24th November 2021
We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a slightly stronger 300,000 in October, with the easing Delta wave of infections triggering some rebound in hiring, but worsening labour shortages are a growing headwind. The 194,000 gain in payrolls in September …
28th October 2021
We forecast a stronger 500,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September. That should qualify as “decent” enough for the Fed to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November FOMC meeting – assuming Congress reaches a deal to raise or suspend the …
30th September 2021
We expect a 750,000 gain in payrolls in August which, although slightly weaker than the gains seen in June and July, would be enough to push the unemployment rate down to 5.1% and would probably count as “substantial further progress” in the eyes of many …
26th August 2021
With labour supply continuing to lag the recovery in demand, we estimate that growth in non-farm payrolls slowed to 650,000 in July. The 850,000 gain in payrolls in June was the biggest monthly increase since last summer. That suggested the labour …
29th July 2021
We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by about 500,000 again in June, as labour supply shortages continue to roil the market. The 559,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May would normally be impressive but, with employment still 7.6 million below its …
24th June 2021
With labour shortages weighing on hiring there is even more uncertainty than usual over May’s employment report, but we estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a relatively subdued 500,000. The disappointing 266,000 rise in payrolls in April might prove …
27th May 2021
