Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Markets Use setting UK Markets
The steep falls in equity prices seen over recent weeks have brought the UK stockmarket back into line with consensus expectations for the economy. But with those expectations very likely to weaken further over the coming months, equities’ adjustment may …
8th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BCC Economic Survey (Q2) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recession moves closer …
7th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Industrial Production (May) …
6th July 2008
An interest rate cut is desperately needed to support the rapidly deteriorating economy. But inflationary pressures continue to tie the Monetary Policy Committee’s hands. The chances of an interest rate rise have receded significantly. But with a rate cut …
3rd July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Services (Jun.) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Housing Equity Withdrawal (Q1) …
2nd July 2008
We have been more concerned than most forecasters about the outlook for the UK economy and, in particular, the prospect of an abrupt unwinding of the various imbalances that have built up over the last decade or so. But recent news has suggested that …
The news on the housing market over the last month has simply been dire. The Nationwide recorded its eighth consecutive fall in house prices in June, leaving prices some 8% below their autumn peak. And the collapse in the number of mortgage approvals to …
1st July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (June) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Report on Manufacturing (Jun.) …
30th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Household Borrowing (May) & Cons. Confidence (Jun.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC changes its tune on inflation expectations …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) …
26th June 2008
The fact that wages growth has not yet responded to the rises in inflation seen over the last year or so is encouraging given that in the 1970s wages growth began to pick up just a few months after inflation started to rise. We’re not out of the woods …
25th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun.) …
24th June 2008
The current economic climate is increasingly being compared to the inflationary years of the 1970s and early 1980s. But a quick look at what actually happened back then suggests that the UK economy is now markedly different and that the latest inflation …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pay fears to prove overdone… again …
23rd June 2008
Any signs that the rise in inflation is prompting a general pick-up in pay growth could trigger an interest rate hike from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). So far, though, there have been no such indications. And we think that wage growth will remain …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Letter-writing regime makes MPC’s job even harder …
If yesterday’s retail sales figures are to be believed, consumers intend to keep spending no matter what. But with the squeeze on their real incomes set to intensify, households would need to run their saving rate into negative territory to maintain their …
20th June 2008
The better weather no doubt boosted sales of clothing and seasonal ranges in May, but the 3.5% rise in the official measure of retail sales volumes looks pretty implausible. Although some of the survey evidence had improved in May, none of it pointed to …
19th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (May) …
18th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (Jun.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Monthly Trends (Jun.) …
17th June 2008
We now think that house prices will fall by about a third over the next 2 to 3 years, clearly increasing the chances of a recession in the UK economy to perhaps 50%. And with house prices still likely to be falling throughout 2010, there is very little …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (May)/BoE Open Letter …
16th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Unemployment to surpass 1m next year …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BoE Inflation Attitudes (May) …
11th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Market Data & Trade (Apr./May) …
The recent shift in market expectations for UK interest rates has been nothing short of dramatic. As Chart 1 shows, having previously been pricing in sharp falls in interest rates, the short sterling futures strip is now discounting something like a 50bp …
10th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May) & Ind. Production (Apr.) …
The markets have recently shifted their attention away from the downside risks to activity to the upside risks to inflation. The bond market’s inflation expectations have risen to levels not seen since the inflation target was introduced in 1997. At the …
9th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Weaker activity fails to dampen price pressures …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (May) …
8th June 2008
History shows that an inverted gilt yield curve is not a foolproof predictor of recession. But the alarming weakening in the recent news on activity, together with the likelihood that inflation fears will result in interest rates being left at 5% for some …
5th June 2008
