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The rapid escalation of the Greek fiscal crisis has prompted inevitable questions over whether the UK faces similar dangers. So far, UK markets are probably right to have been sanguine. But that might change if a clearer plan to address the UK’s fiscal …
29th April 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) …
House price inflation returned to double-digit rates in April, for the first time since June 2007. However, with the pressure on household incomes more likely to rise than ease and surveys pointing to a new mood of caution amongst buyers, house price …
The contradictory messages offered by the Halifax and Nationwide house price data make it almost impossible to draw clear conclusions about the health of the market. But, at the very least, May’s drop in the Halifax index highlights the fragility of the …
Analysis of the likely behaviour and influence of the exchange rate after the election has tended to focus on the possibility of a further sharp depreciation in the event of a hung parliament. But there are reasons why the opposite scenario – a …
28th April 2010
The argument over whether Labour’s National Insurance rise or the Conservatives’ efficiency savings will cost more jobs detracts from the bigger picture that the required fiscal squeeze will result in the loss of up to 750,000 public sector jobs over the …
With consumers so far fighting off any preelection nerves, the consumer recovery could gather further momentum in the next month or two. But the second half of the year should look rather different to the first as the recent sweet spot for consumers …
26th April 2010
Last week’s public finances figures for March, revealing a £3bn undershoot of the Chancellor’s forecast for public borrowing in 2009-10, may have raised hopes that the beneficial effects on the public finances of a stronger economy may relieve the need …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Preliminary GDP (Q1) …
23rd April 2010
The weakness of GDP growth in the first quarter of this year may not be as bad for the Government’s election prospects as it might seem. But it is clearly disappointing for the economic outlook. … Preliminary GDP …
There are some signs that markets are becoming rather less fearful of the prospect of a hung parliament after the election on May 6th. … Are hung parliament fears …
22nd April 2010
Consumer spending has continued to bounce back from the snow and VAT related weakness seen at the start of the year. And with consumer confidence holding up despite the looming fiscal squeeze, the consumer recovery could continue to gather pace for a …
March’s public finances figures provided the Government with a modest pre-election boost in revealing an unexpected undershoot of the Budget forecasts for public borrowing in 2009/10. But a long and painful fiscal squeeze still lies ahead. … Public …
The outcome of the general election on May 6 is unlikely to transform the basic trajectory of the UK economy over the next five years. Whoever gains power will find their economic policy priorities dominated, and their ambitions hindered, by the …
21st April 2010
The minutes of April’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting showed that the Committee is still unlikely to alter policy in the near future. Meanwhile, despite the headline-grabbing drop in claimant count unemployment in March, employment is still …
March’s CPI figures will have done little to reassure those MPC members who have recently sounded a bit more concerned about the inflation outlook. But they should not cause the Committee to think seriously about tightening policy. … UK Consumer Prices …
20th April 2010
Estimates of the financial cost to the UK airline industry of the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland are mounting. But we doubt that the economic cost of the eruption will have a material impact on the UK’s economic recovery. … Hot ash …
19th April 2010
Last week’s trade figures could signal that the external sector is finally set to provide the economy with a decent amount of support. But we would be cautious about reading too much into the narrowing of the trade deficit. The weather has made the …
February’s trade figures finally brought some good news about the exporting side of the economy. But there is a long way to go before the external sector can fully compensate for the weakness in the domestic economy. … UK Trade (Feb.) & BRC Retail Sales …
13th April 2010
Having been largely overlooked as a sector in inexorable decline for the last decade or more, attention has recently re-focused on industry as a potential source of growth to offset the likely weakness of the financial sector and other parts of the …
12th April 2010
March’s surprisingly strong rise in UK producer prices will prompt some concern that pipeline inflation pressures are building. But there are good reasons not to be too concerned. … Producer Prices …
9th April 2010
Estimates of the financial cost to the UK airline industry of the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland are mounting. But we doubt that the economic cost of the eruption will have a material impact on the UK’s economic recovery. … MPC waits …
8th April 2010
The rise in the Halifax house price index in March suggests that February’s drop was not the start of a new downward trend. However, with market conditions now loosening, mortgage lending criteria still tight and the economy set to remain weak, house …
Surveys of house price expectations, although weakening, are yet to signal the renewed falls that we are forecasting for the second half of this year. However, their record in anticipating price movements is mixed, with consumers’ expectations in …
Hopes for a strong recovery in the UK economy rest on a decent boost to the external sector from the drop in the pound. But it is looking less and less likely that the exporting sector will manage to offset the continued weakness in the domestic economy. …
7th April 2010
The news on the UK economy in the approach to the general election now looks likely to be reasonably upbeat. But the key question is whether voters will translate that better news into greater optimism about their own prospects. With a major fiscal …
The latest batch of data on the services sector painted a mixed picture of the strength of the recovery in the biggest part of the economy. But at least the economy appears to have avoided relapsing into recession in the first quarter. … UK CIPS/Markit …
With just over a month to the expected date of the general election, the recent economic data - while not spectacular - have probably come as a bit of a relief for the Government. Last week’s further upward revision to Q4 GDP means that, although the UK …
5th April 2010
The latest manufacturing data suggested that the industrial recovery is progressing nicely. But the Bank of England’s credit conditions survey did little to alter our view that a prolonged period of sluggish lending growth lies ahead. … CIPS/Markit …
1st April 2010
With the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) still waiting to see how the effects of its past asset purchases pan out, no change in policy is likely this month. The MPC’s fears of a rise in inflation expectations are also likely to linger a bit longer. But it …
The economy has bounced back somewhat since the weakness at the start of the year, suggesting that much of it was just a temporary response to the snow and VAT rise. But the housing and consumer sectors, in particular, have failed fully to recover their …
31st March 2010
The Conservatives’ pledge to use efficiency savings to avoid the Government’s planned increases in national insurance in 2011 leaves both parties’ fiscal plans highly dependent on uncertain reductions in “waste” in the public sector. Much more concrete …
30th March 2010
Q4’s national accounts and balance of payments releases left the UK economy looking both a bit stronger and a bit better balanced than before. But they do not alter the big picture of a sluggish and fragile recovery. … National Accounts & Balance of …
February’s surprise drop in the Nationwide house price index was not repeated, suggesting that the recovery in house prices still has some life. However, with mortgage lending remaining subdued in February, the labour market still weakening and …
Mr Darling’s Budget may have provided £100m to repair potholes in the roads, but it left plenty of gaping holes in the fiscal arithmetic. Most obviously, the projected fall in the budget deficit continues to rely on what look like very optimistic economic …
29th March 2010
More than a year after the Bank of England began its quantitative easing programme, broad money and bank lending are still struggling to rise. The latest worrying development is a renewed drop in net lending to businesses. … Monetary Indicators Monitor …
Although, perhaps, still artificially weak following the poor weather and the end of the previous stamp duty holiday, today’s mortgage lending data do not inspire confidence that last year’s housing market recovery will be extended this year. … Mortgage …
It is clearly reassuring that consumer spending has recovered somewhat after the snow and VAT rise pulled down spending at the start of the year. And in the near-term, spending should receive some small additional support from the Budget giveaway for this …
25th March 2010
February’s official measure of retail sales confirmed that high street spending bounced back after the snow and VAT rise hit spending at the start of the year. But the underlying trend appears to have softened, suggesting that consumers may be struggling …
This was a clever budget which made the most of very difficult circumstances. The Chancellor largely avoided the temptation to bribe the voters with their own money. There was a package of tax cuts and spending increases amounting to about 2.8bn in …
24th March 2010
While there can be little doubt that they will be popular among aspiring first-time buyers, it is fairly clear that the Chancellor’s stamp duty measures do nothing to resolve the real problems facing the housing market – overvaluation, a lack of mortgage …
This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. … UK Budget …
The recent surge in industrial action in the UK has lead to concerns that a ‘Spring of Discontent’ – echoing the highly-disruptive period of strikes in 1978/9 known as the ‘Winter of Discontent’ – is underway. However, while the current strikes will do …
23rd March 2010
