Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … First hints of a housing slowdown? …
21st June 2004
The answer is no. Attention tends to focus on CPI, given that it is the measure of inflation targeted by the Monetary Policy Committee. And although yesterday’s data showed that CPI inflation rose to 1.5% in May from 1.2% in April, the rise was mainly …
16th June 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … King steps up efforts to cool the housing market …
15th June 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates to rise more aggressively this year, but then to fall in 2005 …
10th June 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The interest rate debate: June or July? …
7th June 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Housing market concerns drag down rate expectations …
6th June 2004
On the face of it, households are having an easy time servicing their record levels of debt. Interest payments as a percentage of their income (income gearing) are just 7.1%, less than half the 1990 peak of 15%. But with interest rates, until recently, at …
1st June 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lack of GDP revision questions MPC optimism …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Underlying price pressures remain benign …
24th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mr Brown’s accumulator not a good bet for the economy …
22nd May 2004
The Monetary Policy Committee’s prediction of a very solid 3.5% expansion in GDP this year is based on the assumption that the official output data will soon reflect the buoyancy of the business surveys. But in the case of the manufacturing sector, we …
18th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Higher interest rates pose dangers further out …
17th May 2004
The recent rise in global oil prices to close to $40pb appears to provide support for the MPC’s concerns that rising commodity prices pose a serious threat to the outlook for UK inflation. But while much depends on whether oil prices rise any further and …
11th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Come on, admit it! …
10th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Interest rate forecast revision – rates to rise to 4.75% this year …
6th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC is targeting house prices – whether it admits it or not …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Slower growth and weak inflation cloud rate outlook …
5th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A rate hike would smell of fudge …
4th May 2004
Conventional wisdom has it that mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), which rose to a record high in the fourth quarter of last year, has provided a strong boost to household spending and will continue to do so. However, we believe that the links between MEW …
26th April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC must now decide – inflation or house prices …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A model for slower rate hikes? …
22nd April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling threatens to put the MPC in a spin …
19th April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling saves the gradualist approach …
13th April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates to rise in May, but not by much more thereafter …
8th April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates up on Thursday, but they may not go much higher …
5th April 2004
Despite widespread expectations that the growth of household spending would slow under the weight of record levels of household debt, there has been little evidence that the spending boom is coming to an end. … Shop or drop? (Q2 …
30th March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Debt vs. the pound – the interest rate debate …
29th March 2004
Dull though this Budget was, the big surprise was that the Chancellor chose not to raise money but rather to give it away. Admittedly, the amounts are tiny – some £700m, making a net giveaway since the last budget of just under £2bn. But the fact that …
17th March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling’s rise is not being felt...yet …
15th March 2004
Gordon Brown presents his 8th Budget next Wednesday against a significantly stronger economic backdrop than that of a year ago. Thanks to the recovery in the global economy and some favourable revisions to past data, Mr Brown’s forecast of 3.0% to 3.5% …
9th March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rebalancing under threat …
8th March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More rate rises coming, but only to 4.5% …
4th March 2004
The only tool which is currently available to dampen the record levels of household borrowing is the interest rate. But the Monetary Policy Committee has made it clear that its remit is to target inflation and not asset prices nor households’ borrowing. …
3rd March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mr Brown’s numbers come up …
1st March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too early to panic about retail margins …
23rd February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC banks on economic utopia …
15th February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC streaks ahead …
9th February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates rise as expected – where now depends on housing …
5th February 2004
Wages growth has remained remarkably subdued in recent months, with last month’s data showing annual average earnings growth of just 3.2%. But with the labour market data also showing employment picking up strongly, the inevitable concern is that the …
3rd February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates up this week, but still on course to peak at 4.25% …
2nd February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Growth figures ease MPC’s dilemma… for now …
26th January 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … New Year, same imbalances …
12th January 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates held, but probably going up in February …
8th January 2004
The pound has been caught in the middle of a major realignment between the US dollar and the euro, which we believe could have significantly further to go. … The pound at a critical juncture (Q1 …
30th December 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fall in inflation heightens MPC dilemma …
22nd December 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Whoops, there goes another £10bn …
15th December 2003
After flitting in and out of recession for the last five years, the manufacturing sector has seen signs in recent months that conditions are finally improving. In particular, the CIPS Report on Manufacturing is consistent with an acceleration in the …
11th December 2003
As usual, the Pre-Budget Report contained little in the way of major fiscal measures. Of more interest were the new economic and fiscal forecasts, which revealed much higher public borrowing than was expected in the Budget. The forecast for public sector …
10th December 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … It’s all going to plan...almost …
8th December 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Interest rates will be raised “cautiously” to 4.25% …
4th December 2003