Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Feb.) …
20th March 2008
The parallels between UK and US consumers are disturbing, with the UK consumer sector having seen just as big a build-up of imbalances as that in the US. The UK could therefore soon find itself following in the US’s footsteps with a sharp housing-induced …
19th March 2008
Today’s gloomy comments from clothing retailer Next about trading conditions over the coming year echo our view that clothing is unlikely to escape as lightly during this slowdown as it did in 2005. … Clothing sales to suffer more heavily this …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes, Labour Data & CBI Survey …
Sterling’s relative weakness during the latest bout of market volatility is a telling indication of the growing concerns about the health of the UK economy. But the falling pound could itself damage the outlook for the economy by further hampering the …
18th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Feb.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gambling on growth …
17th March 2008
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson spoke at length yesterday of the serious ongoing problems in the US housing, mortgage and credit markets and the drastic measures which are likely to be required for those markets eventually to return to some form of …
14th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BoE Inflation Attitudes (Feb.) …
13th March 2008
This Budget was conspicuously short of major tax and spending measures. The main interest was therefore in the change to the Treasury’s economic forecasts and the associated projections for government borrowing. … UK Budget 2008 - Hoping for the …
12th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Trade (Jan.) …
This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. … Budget …
The Bank of England’s announcement that it will inject more liquidity into the money markets is a welcome development that should help to bring interbank interest rates down to more normal levels. But high interbank rates have already had a knock-on …
11th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor & Quoted Interest Rates (Feb.) …
Recent news on the US economy, most notably February’s sharp drop in non-farm payrolls, has left us even more pessimistic over the outlook for the US. We now forecast GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2008 (previously 1.3%), with a recession in the first half. …
10th March 2008
The popularity of mortgages with loan to value ratios (LTVS) of over 100% appears to have been a strong support to household goods sales over the past year or so. The decline in these products is therefore set to exacerbate the squeeze from a weaker …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Producer Prices & Industrial Production (Feb/Jan) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Services sector holding up …
The recent collapse in shorter-dated UK government bond yields has no doubt reflected a flight to quality in the light of the ongoing uncertainties across global financial markets. Nonetheless, it has left the bond market unusually detached from …
7th March 2008
The latest annual European Housing Report published by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) echoed other evidence pointing to a general slowdown in the pace of activity and price increases in housing markets across the region during 2007, …
Today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates unchanged supports the view that it will continue to loosen policy at a cautious pace while inflation concerns persist. But the slower rates fall, the further they will ultimately …
6th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (Feb.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Report on Services (Feb.) …
5th March 2008
The recent renewed rise in interbank lending rates is an unwelcome development which means that the MPC will have to work harder to support economic activity. This supports our view that interest rates will eventually fall further than the markets or most …
4th March 2008
Attention has focused on the fact that credit conditions are tightening for even non-subprime households. However, corporates are suffering too. Not only have banks tightened their lending conditions for companies, but the cost of raising funds in the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Report on Manufacturing (Feb.) …
3rd March 2008
Alistair Darling presents his first Budget at a time when the apparent needs of the economy and the public finances could hardly be further apart. His room for manoeuvre is pretty tight, but he might be able to afford a small tax giveaway to help to …
The last month has brought more evidence that pipeline price pressures are strengthening. Producers’ input and output prices rose at record rates in January. (See Chart of the Month.) And the jump in the oil price above $100 per barrel and the further …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rebalancing underway? …
Our measure of household bad debt fell in the final quarter of last year. However, bad debts are likely to start rising again before long as the rises in interest rates in 2006/07 start to take effect and, in time, this rise will clearly be exacerbated by …
29th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK N'wide House Prices (Feb) & Mortgage approvals (Jan) …
The recent economic news has deepened the dilemma facing the Monetary Policy Committee posed by slowing activity on the one hand and strengthening price pressures on the other. But recent speeches by various MPC members suggest that the Committee is …
28th February 2008
We estimate that two thirds of the financial and business services (FBS) sector – or one fifth of the total economy - will be directly adversely affected by the recent turmoil in financial markets. We think that the slowdown in the FBS sector will take …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q4) …
27th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CBI Distributive Trades & Business Investment (Feb./Q4) …
26th February 2008
