Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
Developments over the past quarter have highlighted the downside risks to our house price forecasts. Accordingly, we have cut them. We now think that house prices will fall by 8% this year, rather than 5%. We have also nudged down our forecasts for 2009, …
21st April 2008
The details of the Bank of England’s latest measures to tackle the problems in the credit markets should ease some of the concerns surrounding the potential risks for taxpayers and possible distortions to the markets. Nonetheless, we still have doubts …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Retailers' margins under pressure …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Public Finances & M4 Money Supply (Mar.) …
17th April 2008
Sentiment towards the financial sector has been helped this week by speculation of a new initiative from the Bank of England to free-up the money markets in the UK. However, the acid test is whether this initiative will be sufficient to increase the …
The rise in mortgage payments facing borrowers coming off fixed rate mortgages has fuelled talk of monetary policy “pushing on a string”. In fact, the fall in payments of households with tracker or standard variable rate mortgages has, in aggregate, been …
16th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) …
15th April 2008
The relatively subdued demand for today’s Bank of England auction of three month money may not mean that banks do not want extra cash, rather that they are unable to get their hands on it. Either way, it is clear that the strains in the money markets have …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Housing Market Survey (Mar.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices/BRC survey (Mar.) …
14th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More mortgage pain to come …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Mar.) …
13th April 2008
The continued problems in the financial markets and the associated tightening of credit conditions in the end made today’s 25bps cut in interest rates to 5% almost a sure thing. We think that interest rates will ultimately fall to 3.5%, or even lower. … …
10th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BCC Economic Survey & Trade (Q1/Feb) …
9th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Ind. Prod. & Quoted Interest Rates (Feb/Mar) …
The weakening housing market has diverted attention from the crash which has already occurred in the commercial property market. But the commercial property downturn could hit the wider economy by denting construction investment, reducing firms’ …
8th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (Mar.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumer borrowing surge is a sign of distress …
7th April 2008
This week’s House of Lords report has put immigration under the spotlight again. But the discussion about whether immigration should be capped may soon be irrelevant. Although we doubt that real wage differentials between the UK and Eastern Europe have …
4th April 2008
The dilemma facing the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has not got any easier to resolve. Inflation expectations have risen further and yet borrowers have started to suffer even more at the hands of the credit crunch. We think that the renewed problems in …
3rd April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Services (Mar.) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) …
2nd April 2008
The last month has brought more evidence that the credit crunch is taking its toll on the real economy. Mortgage lenders have begun to raise their rates for existing customers as well as new customers. And some lenders have halted new mortgage lending …
The UK’s current account deficit has reached unsustainable levels. And any correction is likely to be very painful for the wider economy, incorporating a prolonged period of very weak domestic growth. We think that the UK economy will grow by just 1% next …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Household Borrowing (Feb.) & Equity Withdrawal (Q4) …
No, it’s not an April fool’s joke. With the UK economy facing very similar economic imbalances to those unwinding with such devastating effect in the US, we now expect GDP growth to average just 1% in 2009 and interest rates to fall to their 2003 low of …
1st April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Report on Manufacturing (Mar.) …
31st March 2008
Inflation expectations may not be quite as important an influence on actual inflation as the Monetary Policy Committee appears to believe. Accordingly, there is a danger that the Committee keeps interest rates unnecessarily high while it waits for …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Index of Services (Jan.) & Productivity (Q4) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumer spending on the brink? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) …
28th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (March) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CBI Distributive Trades & Business Investment (Mar./Q4) …
27th March 2008
The threat of having to write a letter to the Chancellor explaining why inflation has moved more than 1% above its target could cause the MPC to focus on the near-term outlook for inflation just when the threats facing the real economy suggest it needs to …
26th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Cracks appearing in the labour market …
24th March 2008
The strength of the official measure of high street spending is hard to square with the weakness of consumer confidence, household income growth and the housing market. It may be that the official figures are revised in the coming months. Or it may be …
20th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Feb.) …
