Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC too optimistic on growth next year …
19th May 2008
The deterioration in the inflation outlook is a double whammy for households. Not only will high inflation squeeze households’ real income growth, but it will also prevent interest rates from falling as quickly as previously looked likely. Accordingly, we …
15th May 2008
The recent dreadful news on inflation and the Bank of England’s hawkish Inflation Report suggest that interest rates will not fall as quickly this year as we had previously hoped – we have raised our yearend forecast from 4.0% to 4.5%. But the result is a …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England Inflation Report (May) …
14th May 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Market Data (Mar./Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Housing Market Survey (Apr.) & CLG house prices (Mar.) …
13th May 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices/BRC survey (Apr.) …
12th May 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Inflation Report could push rate expectations lower …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices & Trade (Apr./Mar.) …
11th May 2008
The MPC‘s inaction today confirms that inflation concerns are still hindering the Committee’s ability to respond to the ever-gloomier news on activity. The result will be a deeper and longer downturn in the economy which will eventually see interest rates …
8th May 2008
The foreign travel industry has recently sounded relatively upbeat about its ability to weather a consumer slowdown, arguing that people consider holidays a necessity, rather than luxury. However, a look back at the past suggests that when times get …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Industrial Production (Mar.) …
6th May 2008
The share of household income eaten up by unavoidable or fixed outgoings has risen from 25% to 31% over the past 6 years. And there is little hope of this share falling back in the foreseeable future. … Discretionary spending to remain …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets ignore the economics …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Report on Services (Apr.) …
5th May 2008
Consumer spending remains on course for its sharpest slowdown since the early 1990s. We expect spending to rise by 1.5% in real terms this year and just 1.0% in 2009 – with the main risks to these forecasts to the downside. … Several years of sluggish …
2nd May 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (April) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Personal & Company Insolvencies (Q1) …
1st May 2008
Disagreement on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has intensified between those members who are more worried about the near-term inflation outlook and those whose concerns centre on the weakening growth prospects. We think that inflation concerns will …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Report on Manufacturing (Apr.) …
30th April 2008
It has become clearer over the last month that the economic slowdown well underway. The 0.4% rise in real GDP in the first quarter was the smallest in three years and reflected more modest activity in both the services and industrial sectors. What’s more, …
The recent rebound in equity prices has left them looking somewhat detached from current expectations for the performance of the wider economy. And our feeling that even those expectations will prove to be too optimistic suggests there is a clear risk …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Household Borrowing (Mar.) & CBI Distr. Trades (Apr.) …
28th April 2008
Recent increases in oil and gas prices have increased the chances that consumer price inflation will breach the 3% ceiling which would trigger another letter from the Monetary Policy Committee to the Chancellor. We remain concerned that such a letter will …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank's efforts won't stop a housing slowdown …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Provisional GDP (Q1) …
24th April 2008
The fairly robust picture given by the official retail sales data continues to contrast with the weaker tone of just about every other indicator of the strength of high street demand. What’s more, there are growing signs of weakness off the high street …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Mar.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey (Apr.) …
23rd April 2008
The sharp fall in the pound seen since last summer is unlikely to prevent the manufacturing sector from slipping into a recession this year. But it should mean that the downturn will be fairly shallow and short-lived and leave industry better-placed to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK MPC Minutes (Apr.) …
The recent sharp rise in bond yields has brought them more closely into line with current expectations for the economy. However, our suspicion that those expectations will turn out to be too sanguine suggests that yields will fall again in time. … Have …
22nd April 2008
As the credit crunch bites and house prices fall, we expect housing (also known as mortgage) equity withdrawal (HEW) to dry up almost completely over the next couple of years. Although only a fraction of equity withdrawal is spent, this is yet another …
