Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
We now think that house prices will fall by about a third over the next 2 to 3 years, clearly increasing the chances of a recession in the UK economy to perhaps 50%. And with house prices still likely to be falling throughout 2010, there is very little …
17th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (May)/BoE Open Letter …
16th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Unemployment to surpass 1m next year …
If oil and food prices were to carry on rising, with knock-on effects on core price pressures, UK consumer price inflation could rise above 5% and remain above its 2% target until 2010 and beyond, with disastrous consequences for the real economy. But the …
12th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BoE Inflation Attitudes (May) …
11th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Market Data & Trade (Apr./May) …
The recent shift in market expectations for UK interest rates has been nothing short of dramatic. As Chart 1 shows, having previously been pricing in sharp falls in interest rates, the short sterling futures strip is now discounting something like a 50bp …
10th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May) & Ind. Production (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Weaker activity fails to dampen price pressures …
9th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (May) …
8th June 2008
History shows that an inverted gilt yield curve is not a foolproof predictor of recession. But the alarming weakening in the recent news on activity, together with the likelihood that inflation fears will result in interest rates being left at 5% for some …
5th June 2008
The MPC‘s inaction on interest rates today confirms that inflation concerns are still hindering the Committee’s ability to respond to the ever-gloomier news on activity. The result will be a deeper and longer downturn in the economy which will eventually …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (May) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Report on Services (May) …
3rd June 2008
Overall household spending growth is set to slow sharply, but some types of households will clearly have to cut back more than others. We think that low-income households, pensioners and higherincome households that intended to withdraw housing equity …
Our measure of household bad debt suggests that the bad debt cycle may already have turned. Even if it hasn’t, it will not be long before debt problems become far more widespread. This is another reason to expect the consumer and economic slowdown to be a …
2nd June 2008
The jump in CPI inflation from 2.5% to 3.0% in April has taken further near-term interest rate cuts off the agenda. Indeed, the MPC is unlikely to want to cut rates while inflation is above 3% and rising towards 4%, as it is likely to do as higher petrol …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Household Borrowing (Apr.) & CIPS/RBS manuf. (May) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Slump in confidence settles housing/spending debate …
1st June 2008
Yesterday’s news that house prices have now fallen by 7% on the Nationwide house price index has brought to the fore the disagreements about the impact of house price falls on consumer spending. We therefore thought it a good time to reiterate our view …
30th May 2008
Not only does a June interest rate cut look out of the question, but the deterioration in the inflation outlook means that, unless the activity data start to look really dreadful, rates are unlikely to fall again until August or even later. But with rates …
29th May 2008
The latest surge in the oil price to $130 per barrel (pb) looks set to have mixed implications for the public finances. On the positive side, the higher level of prices should provide the Government with a windfall increase in North Sea tax revenues …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (May) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CBI Distributive Trades (May/Q2) …
28th May 2008
The household saving rate is set to rise significantly from its recent record lows, with clear adverse implications for household spending. But the consequences for the savings industry, in particular, hinge crucially on how the rise comes about. We think …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surveys suggest further slowdown in the pipeline …
26th May 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q1) …
22nd May 2008
The official retail sales data are still holding up fairly well. But we still think that the weaker anecdotal evidence is giving a truer picture of conditions on the high street. What’s more, the deterioration in the inflation outlook has made us even …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Monthly Trends (May) …
21st May 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Apr.) & Business Investment (Q1) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (May) & Public Finances (Apr.) …
20th May 2008
Today’s upward revisions to the ONS estimates of short-term immigration have left the figures looking more plausible. However, the more timely data on the number of Eastern Europeans finding work in the UK add to other recent evidence suggesting that …
The UK bond market is more concerned about inflation now than at any point since the inflation target was established in 1997 and such fears could persist for some time yet. But further ahead, a sustained downturn in activity should bring inflation back …
19th May 2008
