Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
The foreign travel industry has recently sounded relatively upbeat about its ability to weather a consumer slowdown, arguing that people consider holidays a necessity, rather than luxury. However, a look back at the past suggests that when times get …
8th May 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Industrial Production (Mar.) …
6th May 2008
The share of household income eaten up by unavoidable or fixed outgoings has risen from 25% to 31% over the past 6 years. And there is little hope of this share falling back in the foreseeable future. … Discretionary spending to remain …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets ignore the economics …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Report on Services (Apr.) …
5th May 2008
Consumer spending remains on course for its sharpest slowdown since the early 1990s. We expect spending to rise by 1.5% in real terms this year and just 1.0% in 2009 – with the main risks to these forecasts to the downside. … Several years of sluggish …
2nd May 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (April) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Personal & Company Insolvencies (Q1) …
1st May 2008
Disagreement on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has intensified between those members who are more worried about the near-term inflation outlook and those whose concerns centre on the weakening growth prospects. We think that inflation concerns will …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Report on Manufacturing (Apr.) …
30th April 2008
It has become clearer over the last month that the economic slowdown well underway. The 0.4% rise in real GDP in the first quarter was the smallest in three years and reflected more modest activity in both the services and industrial sectors. What’s more, …
The recent rebound in equity prices has left them looking somewhat detached from current expectations for the performance of the wider economy. And our feeling that even those expectations will prove to be too optimistic suggests there is a clear risk …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Household Borrowing (Mar.) & CBI Distr. Trades (Apr.) …
28th April 2008
Recent increases in oil and gas prices have increased the chances that consumer price inflation will breach the 3% ceiling which would trigger another letter from the Monetary Policy Committee to the Chancellor. We remain concerned that such a letter will …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank's efforts won't stop a housing slowdown …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Provisional GDP (Q1) …
24th April 2008
The fairly robust picture given by the official retail sales data continues to contrast with the weaker tone of just about every other indicator of the strength of high street demand. What’s more, there are growing signs of weakness off the high street …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Mar.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey (Apr.) …
23rd April 2008
The sharp fall in the pound seen since last summer is unlikely to prevent the manufacturing sector from slipping into a recession this year. But it should mean that the downturn will be fairly shallow and short-lived and leave industry better-placed to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK MPC Minutes (Apr.) …
The recent sharp rise in bond yields has brought them more closely into line with current expectations for the economy. However, our suspicion that those expectations will turn out to be too sanguine suggests that yields will fall again in time. … Have …
22nd April 2008
As the credit crunch bites and house prices fall, we expect housing (also known as mortgage) equity withdrawal (HEW) to dry up almost completely over the next couple of years. Although only a fraction of equity withdrawal is spent, this is yet another …
Developments over the past quarter have highlighted the downside risks to our house price forecasts. Accordingly, we have cut them. We now think that house prices will fall by 8% this year, rather than 5%. We have also nudged down our forecasts for 2009, …
21st April 2008
The details of the Bank of England’s latest measures to tackle the problems in the credit markets should ease some of the concerns surrounding the potential risks for taxpayers and possible distortions to the markets. Nonetheless, we still have doubts …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Retailers' margins under pressure …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Public Finances & M4 Money Supply (Mar.) …
17th April 2008
Sentiment towards the financial sector has been helped this week by speculation of a new initiative from the Bank of England to free-up the money markets in the UK. However, the acid test is whether this initiative will be sufficient to increase the …
The rise in mortgage payments facing borrowers coming off fixed rate mortgages has fuelled talk of monetary policy “pushing on a string”. In fact, the fall in payments of households with tracker or standard variable rate mortgages has, in aggregate, been …
16th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Market Data (Feb./Mar.) …
15th April 2008
The relatively subdued demand for today’s Bank of England auction of three month money may not mean that banks do not want extra cash, rather that they are unable to get their hands on it. Either way, it is clear that the strains in the money markets have …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Housing Market Survey (Mar.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices/BRC survey (Mar.) …
14th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More mortgage pain to come …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Mar.) …
13th April 2008
The continued problems in the financial markets and the associated tightening of credit conditions in the end made today’s 25bps cut in interest rates to 5% almost a sure thing. We think that interest rates will ultimately fall to 3.5%, or even lower. … …
10th April 2008
