Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Services (Jun.) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) …
3rd July 2008
The fall in the UK exchange rate over the last six months has been broadly similar in scale to that seen after the pound fell out of the ERM in 1992. But while this should eventually lead to a period of better-balanced growth like that in the mid-1990s, …
2nd July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Housing Equity Withdrawal (Q1) …
We have been more concerned than most forecasters about the outlook for the UK economy and, in particular, the prospect of an abrupt unwinding of the various imbalances that have built up over the last decade or so. But recent news has suggested that …
The news on the housing market over the last month has simply been dire. The Nationwide recorded its eighth consecutive fall in house prices in June, leaving prices some 8% below their autumn peak. And the collapse in the number of mortgage approvals to …
1st July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (June) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Report on Manufacturing (Jun.) …
30th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Household Borrowing (May) & Cons. Confidence (Jun.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC changes its tune on inflation expectations …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) …
26th June 2008
The fact that wages growth has not yet responded to the rises in inflation seen over the last year or so is encouraging given that in the 1970s wages growth began to pick up just a few months after inflation started to rise. We’re not out of the woods …
25th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun.) …
24th June 2008
The current economic climate is increasingly being compared to the inflationary years of the 1970s and early 1980s. But a quick look at what actually happened back then suggests that the UK economy is now markedly different and that the latest inflation …
The corporate sector is arguably better placed to weather the economic downturn than either the household or public sector. Nonetheless, profits, investment and employment are all likely to fall outright, meaning that companies will not be able to replace …
23rd June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pay fears to prove overdone… again …
Any signs that the rise in inflation is prompting a general pick-up in pay growth could trigger an interest rate hike from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). So far, though, there have been no such indications. And we think that wage growth will remain …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Letter-writing regime makes MPC’s job even harder …
If yesterday’s retail sales figures are to be believed, consumers intend to keep spending no matter what. But with the squeeze on their real incomes set to intensify, households would need to run their saving rate into negative territory to maintain their …
20th June 2008
The better weather no doubt boosted sales of clothing and seasonal ranges in May, but the 3.5% rise in the official measure of retail sales volumes looks pretty implausible. Although some of the survey evidence had improved in May, none of it pointed to …
19th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (May) …
18th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (Jun.) …
In recent months, the housing market correction has gathered momentum. The economy is also poised for three years of sub-trend growth and unemployment looks set to reach a 12-year high. We believe that house price falls will be extended into 2010 and, as …
17th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Monthly Trends (Jun.) …
We now think that house prices will fall by about a third over the next 2 to 3 years, clearly increasing the chances of a recession in the UK economy to perhaps 50%. And with house prices still likely to be falling throughout 2010, there is very little …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (May)/BoE Open Letter …
16th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Unemployment to surpass 1m next year …
If oil and food prices were to carry on rising, with knock-on effects on core price pressures, UK consumer price inflation could rise above 5% and remain above its 2% target until 2010 and beyond, with disastrous consequences for the real economy. But the …
12th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BoE Inflation Attitudes (May) …
11th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Market Data & Trade (Apr./May) …
The recent shift in market expectations for UK interest rates has been nothing short of dramatic. As Chart 1 shows, having previously been pricing in sharp falls in interest rates, the short sterling futures strip is now discounting something like a 50bp …
10th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May) & Ind. Production (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Weaker activity fails to dampen price pressures …
9th June 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (May) …
8th June 2008
History shows that an inverted gilt yield curve is not a foolproof predictor of recession. But the alarming weakening in the recent news on activity, together with the likelihood that inflation fears will result in interest rates being left at 5% for some …
5th June 2008
The MPC‘s inaction on interest rates today confirms that inflation concerns are still hindering the Committee’s ability to respond to the ever-gloomier news on activity. The result will be a deeper and longer downturn in the economy which will eventually …
