Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
The Bank of England’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) supports our view that the Government’s recapitalisation of the banking system is unlikely to head off a sharp slowdown in bank lending growth and a deep economic recession. … Financial …
28th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct.) …
Just how much scope does the Government have to support the economy through looser fiscal policy - i.e. tax cuts or spending increases? At first sight, the answer might appear to be absolutely none at all. After all, public borrowing is already set to …
27th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lower pound won't prevent deep recession …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Provisional GDP (Q3) …
23rd October 2008
The official measure of retail sales is at least now moving in the same direction as the gloomy survey evidence. All of the main indicators therefore now show a sharp slowdown in high street demand. What’s more, the outlook has deteriorated significantly …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Sep.) …
22nd October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes …
The recent acceleration in the dollar’s appreciation against other major currencies (with the notable exception of the yen) reflects a combination of factors, none of which is likely to reverse any time soon. We are therefore revising our dollar forecasts …
21st October 2008
The recent deterioration in activity both at home and overseas has cast a large cloud over the outlook for the manufacturing sector. We now think that manufacturing output will fall from peak to trough by at least 6%, putting this industrial downturn …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey (Oct.) …
20th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Public Finances & M4 Money Supply (Sep.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … From financial to economic crisis …
If we are right in thinking that the UK economy will flirt with deflation next year, conventional bond yields could drop to very low levels. … Bond market’s inflation expectations set to fall …
16th October 2008
Inflation pressures across the world are set to fade rapidly over the coming months. Indeed, with oil prices plummeting, food prices set to fall and much weaker levels of demand and activity likely to create large amounts of spare capacity, some economies …
What a tumultuous few weeks! Policymakers around the world have stepped in to bail out the banking system, hopefully averting full-scale financial system meltdown, and UK interest rates have been cut by 50bps for the first time in seven years. But, as …
Recently announced measures by the UK Government and other world policymakers have avoided the unthinkable scenario of a full-scale meltdown in the UK and global banking and financial systems. … Staring into the abyss - Just how deep will the downturn be? …
15th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Market Data (Aug./Sep.) …
14th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Sep.) …
13th October 2008
With banks’ balance sheets under pressure, UK bank lending is set to rise more slowly, if not fall outright. This will have significant adverse effects on the UK economy, which may already be in recession. Indeed, we now expect the economy to contract in …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC finally out of the blocks …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Sep.) …
12th October 2008
10th October 2008
The recently announced Government measures to support the UK banking sector may have little immediate effect on the public finances. But the downturn in the wider economy is already set to push public borrowing up to historically high levels. … The fiscal …
At last, some rare good news for the housing market. Together, the bank recapitalisation plan and the 0.5% cut in official policy rates suggest that policy makers have now realised that drastic action is required to resolve the current bank crisis. We do …
8th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Trade (Aug.) …
Today’s 50bps cut in UK interest rates, alongside similar moves from a number of other central banks, is likely to mark the start of a phase of aggressive monetary easing. We continue to expect UK interest rates to drop to just 2.5% or below next year. … …
The Government’s reported plans to inject additional capital into some of the UK’s largest banks are unlikely to prevent a major slowdown in the growth of bank lending to households and companies from contributing to a deep and prolonged recession in the …
7th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Ind. Production & BCC Survey (Aug./Q3) …
6th October 2008
The economic news took a backseat over the last month as the financial crisis intensified. The interbank markets froze, a number of banks on both sides of the Atlantic failed and governments stepped in to clean up the mess. Nonetheless, the UK economy …
Recent developments in the UK and global economies and banking sectors suggest that UK interest rates are going to have to fall even further than we had thought. We now expect rates to fall to 2.5% next year, with a distinct possibility that they return …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates heading towards 3.5%, if not lower …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services & HEW (Sep./Q2) …
2nd October 2008
The dramatic events of the past few weeks have changed the debate from whether the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will cut interest rates this year to whether it will cut them in October or November. The debate is finely balanced and the deciding factor …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England Credit Conditions, 2008Q3 …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (September) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide House Prices (September) …
1st October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP set to contract in Q3 …
30th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) …
29th September 2008
The nationalisation of Bradford & Bingley is another blow to the government’s already dire fiscal position. It also highlights just how vulnerable banks are to future mortgage losses, which are likely to result from a 35% fall in house prices and a rise …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mortgage lending (August) …
