Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
The credit crunch, high oil prices and slowdown in migration may have reduced the economy’s potential or “trend” rate of growth. But this won’t stop the impending recession from creating a large amount of spare capacity and hence putting strong downward …
9th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trade (Jul.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Housing Market Survey (Aug.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Ind. Production & BRC Retail Sales (Jul./Aug.) …
8th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling job, Darling …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Producer Prices (Aug.) …
7th September 2008
Lingering inflation concerns kept the Monetary Policy Committee’s finger off the interest rate trigger again today. But it is only a matter of time before it is forced to respond to the rapidly deteriorating outlook for the economy by cutting rates very …
4th September 2008
The Government today announced a number of measures designed to “meet current challenges in the housing market”. While some of the measures will help to ease the hardship faced by a few of the families worst affected by the housing market downturn, we are …
2nd September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS Report on Services (Aug.) …
The pound’s recent sharp fall is good news for the future prospects of the UK’s exporters. But it won’t prevent the Monetary Policy Committee from having to cut interest rates aggressively in response to the deep downturn in the housing market and …
The sharp falls in oil, wholesale gas and agricultural commodity prices seen over the last month have dramatically improved the outlook for inflation further ahead. Admittedly, the recent hefty price hikes announced by a number of gas and electricity …
Household bad debt appears to have embarked on an upward trend at the start of this year, with borrowers starting to buckle under the pressure of the credit crunch. With unemployment now rising, debt problems are likely to become increasingly widespread. …
1st September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Households and firms to share burden of recession …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS Manuf. Report & Mortgage Approvals …
31st August 2008
The interest rate debate remains finely balanced, with lingering upside risks to inflation likely to keep interest rates on hold in September. However, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) appears to be edging gradually towards a loosening bias and we …
28th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug.) …
27th August 2008
Recent news on the UK economy, coupled with the growing danger of a fall in bank lending, has left us even more concerned over the likely severity of the economic downturn. We now expect GDP to fall by around ¼% next year, the first full-year contraction …
26th August 2008
With banks’ balance sheets under pressure, UK bank lending is set to rise more slowly, if not fall outright. This will have significant adverse effects on the UK economy, which may already be in recession. Indeed, we now expect the economy to contract in …
25th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Already in recession? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q2) …
22nd August 2008
The official retail sales data remain unusually volatile. But at the very least, it appears that the underlying trend in sales has been flat since the beginning of this year. What’s more, the gloomier message given by the surveys suggests that conditions …
21st August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Jul.) …
20th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (Aug.) & Public Finances (Jul.) …
19th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK economy near to recession “tipping point” …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dovish Report opens door to end year rate cut …
18th August 2008
The recent weakening in the outlook for the euro-zone economy – the destination for around half of the UK’s exports – suggests that there is a risk that activity in the UK will be even weaker than the Bank of England expects. … Weaker euro-zone economy to …
14th August 2008
The latest drop in the sterling exchange rate has been largely driven by short-term movements in interest rate expectations. But we see the fall as part of a long overdue adjustment which has significantly further to go. … Sterling's fundamental …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England Inflation Report (Aug.) …
13th August 2008
There are a number of ways in which a weakening housing market could affect the labour market adversely, potentially sparking a vicious circle of falling house prices and rising unemployment. … The dent to the labour market from falling house …
12th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Market Data (Jun./Jul.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Jul.) …
11th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC likely to talk tough in Inflation Report …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices & Trade (Jul./Jun.) …
10th August 2008
The sharp fall in the oil price in recent weeks has overshadowed the impact that the recent easing in global wholesale food prices is likely to have on inflation. While the lower level of wholesale food prices will not prevent CPI inflation from rising to …
8th August 2008
The growing likelihood of a recession, plus the recent falls in oil and commodity prices, kept the MPC’s finger off the interest rate trigger for another month. We continue to expect rates to be falling again by the end of the year and to drop much …
7th August 2008
If the coming recession is anything like those seen since 1950, it will last for 18 months and result in a 2.7% fall in real GDP. Thankfully, sharp falls in interest rates next year should mean that the impending recession is shorter and shallower than …
6th August 2008
The recession that looks likely does not have to be accompanied by falling employment - firms could just let productivity (i.e. output per worker) suffer instead. Indeed, employers have been reluctant to cut headcounts so far. But if previous slowdowns …
The Government’s decision to inject extra capital into Northern Rock means that UK taxpayers will become shareholders in a troubled mortgage lender during what looks set to be the severest downturn in the housing market for decades. … Northern Rock …
5th August 2008
