Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
The temporary cut in Value-Added Tax (VAT) set to be announced in this afternoon’s Pre-Budget Report is a bold, headline-grabbing measure which could put extra money into households’ pockets almost immediately. But there are reasons why the move is …
24th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … PBR and falling inflation won't provide much cheer …
It is shaping up to be a pretty awful Christmas for retailers. Admittedly, the recent interest rate cuts and falls in petrol and food prices will provide some relief for household incomes. What’s more, the Chancellor is set to announce tax cuts for …
20th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Oct.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Monthly Trends (Nov.) …
19th November 2008
The latest migration-related releases from the Home Office and Office for National Statistics provided further evidence that migration to the UK is slowing sharply. However, we doubt that this will prevent wages growth from slowing further or unemployment …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (Nov.) …
Falling inflation will provide a significant boost to households’ spending power over the coming quarters. However, we doubt that real household income growth will rebound strongly enough to prevent consumer spending from falling outright for each of the …
18th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Oct.) …
The prospect of a fiscal boost in the forthcoming Pre-Budget Report and the recent sharp fall in the sterling exchange rate are both positive developments for the UK economy. But they will not prevent a severe recession and they do not preclude the need …
17th November 2008
An important consequence of the recent sharp falls in asset prices is an increase in the size of firms’ pension fund deficits. With profits set to fall sharply and the credit crunch reducing firms’ ability to borrow, even plugging just part of these …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Deflation ahead? …
Alistair Darling may be the man at the despatch box, but the main architect of this Pre-Budget Report will be John Maynard Keynes. With the Government having firmly signalled its intention to support the ailing economy with a much-needed fiscal boost, the …
13th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) …
12th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Market Data (Sep./Oct.) …
Tomorrow’s labour market figures are set to reveal a further drop in employment, confirming that the downturn in the labour market is well underway. We expect employment to drop by around 1.5 million from peak to trough (i.e. from mid-2008 to end-2010), …
11th November 2008
The last year or so has seen widespread concerns that inflation has returned from the dead. But with global commodity prices falling and a deep recession in the UK economy set to create huge amounts of spare capacity, it is deflation which is about to be …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Trade, BRC survey & Quoted Rates (Sep./Oct.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Oct.) …
10th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Historic rate move will not stop the rot …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Personal & Company Insolvencies (Q3) …
7th November 2008
Today’s interest rate cut, from 4.5% to 3%, marks only the early stages of a phase of aggressive monetary easing which will ultimately take base rates to an all-time low of 1%. Mortgage interest rates are also heading much lower, but they will not fall as …
6th November 2008
A day late maybe, but the Monetary Policy Committee certainly delivered some spectacular fireworks today in the form of the 150bp cut in interest rates, the biggest move since 1992. But rates still need to fall much further. We continue to expect them to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (October) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Oct.) & Ind. Prod. (Sep.) …
5th November 2008
Despite the write-downs already made, the financial sector has yet to face billions of pounds of further losses associated with the downturn in the economy. Our forecast that unemployment will ultimately rise by 1.7 million has worrying consequences for …
4th November 2008
The 0.5% plunge in GDP in Q3 marked the start of the UK’s first recession in 17 years. And worse is to come. It is likely that the Government’s recapitalisation of the banks will not stop lending growth from slowing sharply. Meanwhile, house prices are …
3rd November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumer slump lies ahead (Q4 08) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Oct.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Policy action won’t prevent worst recession in 25 years …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) …
30th October 2008
With the economy plunging into recession and inflation risks rapidly receding, interest rates clearly need to fall considerably further. Accordingly, we expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut rates by 75 basis points at the coming meeting, with …
To date, only a few major economies have been afflicted by large scale falls in house prices. But all that will change in 2009. Housing is significantly overvalued across much of Europe, as well as in Australia and Canada. Our analysis suggests that there …
29th October 2008
Extraordinary circumstances require extraordinary actions. With the current recession likely to be deeper than that in the early 1990s and the credit crunch impairing the effectiveness of monetary policy, we now expect UK interest rates to fall to an …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mortgage lending (Sep.) …
