Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) …
12th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Market Data (Sep./Oct.) …
Tomorrow’s labour market figures are set to reveal a further drop in employment, confirming that the downturn in the labour market is well underway. We expect employment to drop by around 1.5 million from peak to trough (i.e. from mid-2008 to end-2010), …
11th November 2008
The last year or so has seen widespread concerns that inflation has returned from the dead. But with global commodity prices falling and a deep recession in the UK economy set to create huge amounts of spare capacity, it is deflation which is about to be …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Trade, BRC survey & Quoted Rates (Sep./Oct.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Oct.) …
10th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Historic rate move will not stop the rot …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Personal & Company Insolvencies (Q3) …
7th November 2008
Today’s interest rate cut, from 4.5% to 3%, marks only the early stages of a phase of aggressive monetary easing which will ultimately take base rates to an all-time low of 1%. Mortgage interest rates are also heading much lower, but they will not fall as …
6th November 2008
A day late maybe, but the Monetary Policy Committee certainly delivered some spectacular fireworks today in the form of the 150bp cut in interest rates, the biggest move since 1992. But rates still need to fall much further. We continue to expect them to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (October) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Oct.) & Ind. Prod. (Sep.) …
5th November 2008
Despite the write-downs already made, the financial sector has yet to face billions of pounds of further losses associated with the downturn in the economy. Our forecast that unemployment will ultimately rise by 1.7 million has worrying consequences for …
4th November 2008
The 0.5% plunge in GDP in Q3 marked the start of the UK’s first recession in 17 years. And worse is to come. It is likely that the Government’s recapitalisation of the banks will not stop lending growth from slowing sharply. Meanwhile, house prices are …
3rd November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumer slump lies ahead (Q4 08) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Oct.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Policy action won’t prevent worst recession in 25 years …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) …
30th October 2008
With the economy plunging into recession and inflation risks rapidly receding, interest rates clearly need to fall considerably further. Accordingly, we expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut rates by 75 basis points at the coming meeting, with …
To date, only a few major economies have been afflicted by large scale falls in house prices. But all that will change in 2009. Housing is significantly overvalued across much of Europe, as well as in Australia and Canada. Our analysis suggests that there …
29th October 2008
Extraordinary circumstances require extraordinary actions. With the current recession likely to be deeper than that in the early 1990s and the credit crunch impairing the effectiveness of monetary policy, we now expect UK interest rates to fall to an …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mortgage lending (Sep.) …
The Bank of England’s latest Financial Stability Report (FSR) supports our view that the Government’s recapitalisation of the banking system is unlikely to head off a sharp slowdown in bank lending growth and a deep economic recession. … Financial …
28th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct.) …
Just how much scope does the Government have to support the economy through looser fiscal policy - i.e. tax cuts or spending increases? At first sight, the answer might appear to be absolutely none at all. After all, public borrowing is already set to …
27th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lower pound won't prevent deep recession …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Provisional GDP (Q3) …
23rd October 2008
The official measure of retail sales is at least now moving in the same direction as the gloomy survey evidence. All of the main indicators therefore now show a sharp slowdown in high street demand. What’s more, the outlook has deteriorated significantly …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Sep.) …
22nd October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes …
The recent acceleration in the dollar’s appreciation against other major currencies (with the notable exception of the yen) reflects a combination of factors, none of which is likely to reverse any time soon. We are therefore revising our dollar forecasts …
21st October 2008
The recent deterioration in activity both at home and overseas has cast a large cloud over the outlook for the manufacturing sector. We now think that manufacturing output will fall from peak to trough by at least 6%, putting this industrial downturn …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey (Oct.) …
20th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Public Finances & M4 Money Supply (Sep.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … From financial to economic crisis …
If we are right in thinking that the UK economy will flirt with deflation next year, conventional bond yields could drop to very low levels. … Bond market’s inflation expectations set to fall …
16th October 2008
Inflation pressures across the world are set to fade rapidly over the coming months. Indeed, with oil prices plummeting, food prices set to fall and much weaker levels of demand and activity likely to create large amounts of spare capacity, some economies …
