Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Ind. Production & Producer Prices (Nov/Dec) …
9th January 2009
Today’s cut in interest rates to record low levels confirms that, for now at least, monetary policy remains focused on reducing the cost of money. We still expect rates to get down to zero, or very close, before the emphasis switches to boosting the …
8th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide House Prices (Dec.) …
6th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (December) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Dec.) …
Despite cutting interest rates by another 1% in December to 2%, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has signalled that it has more work to do. Given the further deterioration in the economic outlook, we now think that interest rates will fall all the way …
5th January 2009
The data over the last month have made it look much more likely that GDP will fall very sharply this year. The National Accounts revealed that GDP fell in Q3 by 0.6%, worse than the previous estimate of a 0.5% drop. What’s more, the further falls in the …
Deflation is back! For the first time in very nearly half a century, the UK is likely to experience negative consumer price inflation in 2009. … Living with deflation (Q1 …
24th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q3) …
23rd December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prolonged period of zero interest rates ahead …
22nd December 2008
If the recession is to end next year, as is widely expected, past experience suggests that we should already be seeing turning points in leading indicators such as confidence. But with the economic data still worsening, we doubt that the recession will …
18th December 2008
There might yet be a last minute rush to the shops. For now, though, it looks likely to be an awful Christmas on the high street. Admittedly, the cuts in taxes and interest rates modestly improve the outlook further ahead - we now think that interest …
In line with other central banks, the Bank of England has recently begun a policy of quantitative easing (QE). Admittedly, the Bank has taken action to limit the increase in the monetary base. And it has done less quantitative easing than the Fed. But …
The recent dreadful news on the UK economy and the fall in US interest rates very close to zero have convinced us that UK interest rates are set to fall even further than we had previously thought. Rates are effectively heading to zero on this side of the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Nov.) …
Quantitative easing (QE) is a potentially very powerful tool that could pull economies out of recession and deflation. However, to work fully it may have to be combined with additional measures to encourage the banks to lend or, as a last resort, a …
17th December 2008
The reduction in the US Fed funds target rate to between zero and 0.25% has raised the question of whether interest rates in other economies, including the UK, can fall as far. The answer would seem to be that there are no insurmountable obstacles to zero …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK MPC Minutes, Labour Market & CBI Dist. Trades …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Nov.) …
16th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Manufacturing malaise …
15th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CBI Monthly Industrial Trends (Dec.) …
11th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Ind. Prod., Trade & BRC Sales (Oct./Nov.) …
9th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Nov.) …
8th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recession gathers momentum …
Today’s further 1% fall in UK interest rates to match their lowest ever levels underlines the seriousness of the situation facing the economy. But there is more to do and there is now a very real possibility that interest rates effectively fall all the …
4th December 2008
The number of new car registrations plummeted in November at the fastest rate yet. The automotive sector is shaping up to be one of the hardest hit areas of the economy during this recession. … Car sales continue to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Nov.) …
3rd December 2008
The last month has seen UK policymakers take more aggressive action to stop the recession from turning into a depression. November’s 150bps cut in interest rates to 3% left them at a 57-year low. And the Inflation Report suggested that the MPC is willing …
2nd December 2008
Now that the Government has stepped in to bail out the UK banks, attention has shifted to which other areas of the financial sector might be in serious trouble. While the insurance sector certainly looks vulnerable, it is at least, on the face of it, …
1st December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Household Borrowing & CIPS/Markit Manufacturing (Oct./Nov.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … PBR underlines need for very low interest rates …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Nov.) …
28th November 2008
Tomorrow’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey will give one of the first indications from the retail sector as a whole as to how the pre-Christmas spending season is shaping up. The failure of Woolworths and MFI and the widespread price discounting highlight …
27th November 2008
Both the Inflation Report and the minutes of November’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting suggested that another sharp interest rate cut is likely this month. Of course, they were published before the Pre-Budget Report giveaway was announced. But …
The rise in short-dated bond yields in recent days appears to be a response to the higher than expected borrowing projections revealed in Monday’s Pre-Budget Report (PBR). But it is unlikely to be long before such supply concerns are overwhelmed by the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide House Prices (Nov.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q3) …
26th November 2008
In today’s testimony to the Treasury Committee, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) gave little indication of whether it thinks that the fiscal stimulus announced yesterday has reduced the need for further interest rate cuts. But with the Governor …
25th November 2008
While the Chancellor was right to try to support the economy with a fiscal boost, he was constrained by the prospect of enormous increases in public borrowing from being able to do nearly enough. Accordingly, the PBR will not prevent a severe recession in …
24th November 2008
