Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
The preliminary estimate of GDP in the final quarter of last year confirmed that the economy has plunged into recession. The 1.5% quarterly drop in output in Q4 means that the economy contracted by over 2% in the second half of 2008. There are signs of a …
4th February 2009
Recent suggestions that a recovery in real income growth as inflation drops will prevent a major downturn in household spending would seem to overlook the damaging impact of the recent sharp falls in household wealth. We still expect spending to contract …
2nd February 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bottom of the pile …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Household Borrowing (Dec.) & Consumer Conf. (Jan.) …
30th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Household Borrowing (Dec.) & Consumer Confidence (Jan.) …
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has slowed the pace of monetary loosening and stressed that a large policy stimulus is in train. But the economic outlook has deteriorated further. And the MPC may just have been waiting for the analysis in February’s …
29th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jan.) …
27th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the UK really going bankrupt? …
26th January 2009
Consumers eventually came out in force, meaning that buoyant sales around Christmas and the start of the clearance sales prevented the period from being a complete wash-out for retailers. However, there is still plenty of evidence that spending growth is …
23rd January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Provisional GDP (Q4) & Retail Sales (Dec.) …
The steep cuts in the rates banks pay on households’ savings have led some to conclude that further interest rate cuts are not just of little use, but are actually counterproductive. Interest rate changes are certainly less effective than usual, but we …
22nd January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey (Jan.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK MPC Minutes, Labour Data, Public Finances …
21st January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Dec.) …
20th January 2009
There is still no universally accepted single cause of the Great Depression. But our analysis suggests that the main culprit for the role of catalyst was the bursting of the bubbles in the equity and commodity markets, accompanied by falling house prices. …
19th January 2009
The raft of further measures to support the banks is a significant step. It is clear that the Government has realised that the banking system will not start functioning properly again without more state intervention. Less clear is whether these measures, …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Government needs to take further steps to support the banks …
Should UK interest rates fall to zero, it is likely that UK policymakers will follow in the footsteps of the US Federal Reserve and adopt a formal policy of quantitative easing (QE). While QE is a powerful tool, we think that the practical limitations …
16th January 2009
Faced with soaring recession-related bad debts, we doubt that banks, if left to their own devices, will start lending enough to kick-start the economy. The Government will therefore have to force them to lend. State-decreed lending targets, perhaps via …
15th January 2009
This week’s Bank of England interest rates data confirmed that banks have so far taken advantage of the cuts in official interest rates to boost their profit margins by cutting savings rates more aggressively than borrowing rates. In theory, banks should …
14th January 2009
Many of the retailers’ trading statements have been coming in at the better end of expectations, suggesting that Christmas on the high street was not quite as bad as feared. But if the latest BRC Retail Sales Monitor is anything to go by, it was still …
13th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trade & BCC Survey (Nov./Q4) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC slows down, but rates still headed for zero …
12th January 2009
Discount and value retailers have proved to be the relative winners during this consumer spending slowdown, as households have traded down to buying cheaper goods. What’s more, they could benefit further as falling inflation boosts the spending power of …
9th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Ind. Production & Producer Prices (Nov/Dec) …
Today’s cut in interest rates to record low levels confirms that, for now at least, monetary policy remains focused on reducing the cost of money. We still expect rates to get down to zero, or very close, before the emphasis switches to boosting the …
8th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide House Prices (Dec.) …
6th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (December) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Dec.) …
Despite cutting interest rates by another 1% in December to 2%, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has signalled that it has more work to do. Given the further deterioration in the economic outlook, we now think that interest rates will fall all the way …
5th January 2009
The data over the last month have made it look much more likely that GDP will fall very sharply this year. The National Accounts revealed that GDP fell in Q3 by 0.6%, worse than the previous estimate of a 0.5% drop. What’s more, the further falls in the …
Deflation is back! For the first time in very nearly half a century, the UK is likely to experience negative consumer price inflation in 2009. … Living with deflation (Q1 …
24th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q3) …
23rd December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prolonged period of zero interest rates ahead …
22nd December 2008
If the recession is to end next year, as is widely expected, past experience suggests that we should already be seeing turning points in leading indicators such as confidence. But with the economic data still worsening, we doubt that the recession will …
18th December 2008
There might yet be a last minute rush to the shops. For now, though, it looks likely to be an awful Christmas on the high street. Admittedly, the cuts in taxes and interest rates modestly improve the outlook further ahead - we now think that interest …
In line with other central banks, the Bank of England has recently begun a policy of quantitative easing (QE). Admittedly, the Bank has taken action to limit the increase in the monetary base. And it has done less quantitative easing than the Fed. But …
The recent dreadful news on the UK economy and the fall in US interest rates very close to zero have convinced us that UK interest rates are set to fall even further than we had previously thought. Rates are effectively heading to zero on this side of the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Nov.) …
