Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
The lags between economic activity and the labour market appear to have shortened during this recession. Nonetheless, unemployment looks unlikely to start falling again until at least 2011. … Unemployment unlikely to peak until …
25th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jun.) …
24th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trade boost under threat? …
22nd June 2009
Consumer spending looks unlikely to keep falling at such a sharp rate as the 1.2% drop seen in Q1. After all, it now looks like the overall economy could be out of recession as soon as Q3, or even the current quarter, and given its 65% or so weight in …
19th June 2009
The latest monetary indicators confirm that the Bank of England’s asset purchases under its quantitative easing (QE) programme are providing some boost to the money holdings of the non-bank sector. But there is still little evidence of a wider pick-up in …
18th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (May) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (Jun.) & Labour Data (Apr./May) …
17th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (May) …
16th June 2009
One of the puzzles of this recession is why consumer spending on the high street is so much stronger than spending off it. The credit crunch driven nature of the slowdown appears to have played a key role in this. But as the weakening labour market starts …
15th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the recession over? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BoE Inflation Attitudes (May) …
11th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Industrial Production & Trade (Apr.) …
10th June 2009
Yesterday, we revised up our forecasts for economic growth in the UK. Our new forecasts still leave the economy on a very weak path, which will not prevent further falls in employment and household income. As such, hopes that house prices are approaching …
9th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May) …
Today we have revised our key economic forecasts. At the same time, we have updated our projections for currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. The new market numbers are presented in the table at the bottom of page 2. Included for the first time …
8th June 2009
Upward revisions to our global economic forecasts and an improvement in the economic data at home have led us to revise our forecasts for UK GDP growth higher. But the outlook remains weak and extremely uncertain, while the large amount of spare capacity …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC’s bond yield conundrum …
7th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (May) …
5th June 2009
The MPC’s decision to pause today was no surprise in the light of the announcement only last month to extend quantitative easing and recent signs of improvement in the economic data. But we still suspect that further policy support will be required to …
4th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (May) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (May) …
3rd June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England Lending Figures (Apr.) …
2nd June 2009
The forward-looking economic indicators have continued to improve over the past month and are still pointing to a much smaller contraction in GDP in Q2 than in Q1. But we have yet to see anything that points to actual growth in the economy. Nonetheless, …
1st June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (May) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rising pound not a problem yet …
31st May 2009
There is little reason for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to alter the current course of asset purchases under its quantitative easing (QE) programme. After all, it was only last month that it extended the programme by £50bn to a total of £125bn. But …
28th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May) …
On the face of it, the plummeting level of UK exports suggests that the sharp drop in the sterling exchange rate over the last year or two has done nothing to cushion the UK’s external sector from the global recession. But a closer look suggests that the …
27th May 2009
The falling level of interbank lending rates has been an encouraging aspect of the recent improvement in conditions in both financial markets and the wider economy. Unfortunately, there is limited evidence that lenders are passing on this drop in their …
26th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Why is UK inflation lagging behind? …
24th May 2009
The chances that a country like the UK or even the US might lose its AAA rating in the coming years are rather greater than generally assumed. However, the consequences for the financial markets may not be quite as serious. … How serious is the threat to …
22nd May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q1) …
The likely sharp fall in overall consumer spending in Q1 probably marks the low-point during this downturn. After all, the consumer sector has shared in the tentative signs of improvement, or at least stabilisation, seen in the economy as a whole …
21st May 2009
The latest monetary indicators show that the boost to the monetary base from the Bank of England’s asset purchases is not yet feeding through into a ignificant pick-up in lending to the wider economy. … Monetary Indicators Monitor …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Retail Sales & Public Finances (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes & CBI Monthly Trends (May) …
20th May 2009
The recent pick-up in corporate bond issuance suggests that, even though banks remain reluctant to lend, companies are managing to access funds from elsewhere. However, it looks unlikely that higher bond issuance will be able to compensate fully for …
19th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Apr.) …
Average earnings in the UK are already falling outright for the first time since the 1930s. We expect them to fall further, intensifying the risk of a prolonged period of deflation. … Pay cuts intensify deflation …
18th May 2009
