Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
From what we can tell so far, the high street has had a surprisingly good Christmas – and not just due to people trying to beat the VAT rise. We have had our fingers burnt before in betting agains UK consumers. But even so, we find it hard to see how they …
18th January 2010
With roughly as many settlements taking place in January as in the entire second half of the year, the start-of-year pay round will give us a steer as to whether or not pay growth is stabilising along with the wider economy. We still think that the labour …
14th January 2010
November’s industrial production figures suggested that, while activity in the manufacturing sector has stabilised after the steep falls of the previous year or two, a return to strong and sustained rates of expansion remains some way off. … UK Industrial …
13th January 2010
The UK trade figures continued to disappoint in November, with the lower pound still having little visible positive effect. But at least consumers are still proving surprisingly happy to keep spending on the high street. … UK Trade (Nov.) & BRC Retail …
12th January 2010
Uncertainties over the likely path of the economic recovery suggest that the timing of the general election might have an important influence on its outcome. Should Mr Brown hang on to the last in the hope that the recovery steadily gathers pace? Or go …
11th January 2010
Last week’s news, all but confirming that the deepest peacetime recession on record finally came to an end in the fourth quarter of last year, suggests that the economy started 2010 with a reasonable amount of forward momentum. … 2010 – A bumpy road to …
December’s producer prices figures revealed a further pick-up in cost pressures in the industrial sector. But this is unlikely to prevent consumer price inflation from falling back sharply later on this year. … Producer Prices …
8th January 2010
The sharp rise in household saving suggests that the required adjustment in the consumer sector is further advanced than previously thought. However, we think that the process still has further to go. … Consumer adjustment not over …
7th January 2010
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) remains firmly in wait and see mode until its February meeting. While the quantitative easing programme may be drawing to a close, other measures to support the economy are yet possible and any real tightening of …
The latest rise in house prices has not changed our view that a second leg in the house price correction still lies ahead. Admittedly, the timing of any renewed fall in prices is uncertain. But given the still weak outlook for unemployment and wage …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (Dec) …
December’s CIPS/Markit report on services provided further evidence that the economy moved decisively out of recession in the fourth quarter. However, the recovery is likely to struggle to maintain its recent momentum. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services …
6th January 2010
The National Accounts published at the end of last year left the economy looking better-balanced than before. The balance of payments deficit should have recorded the smallest deficit last year since 1998, while the household saving rate rose above its …
Growing concerns over the UK’s fiscal position are unlikely to ease this side of the general election and could well intensify further. But the prospect of a long period of very low inflation and interest rates should limit the damage to the bond market …
5th January 2010
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to wait for February’s Inflation Report before reviewing its asset purchase programme. Interest rates and the £200bn quantitative easing programme are therefore likely to be left unchanged at this week’s …
4th January 2010
Broad money growth remains disappointingly sluggish given the large amount of money the Bank of England has pumped into the economy. And while lenders claim to be expanding the supply of credit, lending growth itself remains weak and is likely to …
December’s data on industry and the housing market suggest that the UK economy ended last year with reasonable momentum. Nonetheless, 2010 is likely to be a year of gradual recovery, rather than booming growth. … CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing …
A mood of doom and gloom has descended regarding the UK economy. The fact that the UK has been much slower to exit recession than other economies has raised concerns that its previous economic success was just an illusion and that the recent crisis has …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q3) …
22nd December 2009
Conditions in the banking sector have been improving, but in its latest Financial Stability Report (FSR), the Bank of England echoed our view that banks still have a lot more work to do in repairing their balance sheets. We still doubt that bank lending …
18th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Public Finances & Money Supply (Nov.) …
It does not appear to have been a spectacular run-up to Christmas on the high street so far. But with the Chancellor confirming that VAT will return to 17.5% on 1st January, we should see an end-of-year surge as people bring forward some spending. This …
17th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Nov.) & CBI Dist. Trades (Dec.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Data (Oct./Nov.) …
16th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Nov.) …
15th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Nov.) …
11th December 2009
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) never looked likely to take any action today. But even though the Committee has slowed its rate of asset purchases, it might yet have to give the economy more support in the new year – whether through more quantitative …
10th December 2009
As highlighted by this week’s dismal trade figures, evidence of a boost from the lower level of sterling is conspicuous by its absence. There remain few signs that the drop in the pound is either boosting exports or reducing imports. … Still little …
Consumers are likely to bear the brunt of the looming tax rises and government spending cuts. The worst year of the fiscal squeeze looks likely to be 2011, when we think that it could knock some 2.5% off households annual income growth. … Pre-Budget …
9th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Trade (Oct.) …
This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Pre-Budget Report speech at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. … Pre-Budget …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Ind. Prod. (Oct.) & CBI Industrial Trends (Dec.) …
8th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (Nov) …
With the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) likely to wait for February’s Inflation Report before reviewing its asset purchase programme, this week’s meeting should be a non-event. In any case, the Committee’s decision to extend its quantitative easing (QE) …
3rd December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Nov.) …
Consumers are likely to bear the brunt of the looming tax rises and government spending cuts. The worst year of the fiscal squeeze looks likely to be 2011, when we think that it could knock some 2.5% off households annual income growth. … How will …
2nd December 2009
October’s rise in CPI inflation from 1.1% to 1.5% marked the start of an upward trend which could see inflation rise to 3% or above early next year. (See Chart.) Energy base effects and the planned reversal of the VAT cut will be the main drivers of the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Nov.) …
1st December 2009
The narrow M0 measure of the money supply is being kept high by the Bank of England’s asset purchases. However, the broad money aggregates remain weak. In fact, today’s data showed that the measure of the money supply most closely related to economic …
30th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mortgage lending (October) …
25th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP: Output, Income and Expenditure (Q3) …
All of the main measures of retail spending were strong in October. And spending will receive further support in the next month or two as consumers bring forward some purchases ahead of the reversal of the VAT cut on 1st January. So although it is …
19th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales, Public Finances & M4 (Oct.) …
