Filtered by Subscriptions: Latin America Economics Use setting Latin America Economics
Last night’s warning by the Brazilian Finance Minister, Guido Mantega, that an ‘international currency war’ has broken out has grabbed some predictable headlines. We discussed the issue of rapid currency appreciation in Latin America in a recent Focus …
28th September 2010
This weekend’s elections provide the strongest evidence yet that Venezuela’s economic woes have begun to dent President Chavez’s popularity. All eyes are now on the 2012 presidential elections and, with the opposition set to mount a vigorous challenge to …
27th September 2010
Colombian Q2 GDP growth came in well below consensus, but in line with our forecast of 4.5% y/y. While global headwinds could cause the pace of growth to slow to around 3.0% in 2011, the mediumterm outlook remains very favourable. … Colombian GDP growth …
23rd September 2010
Latin America’s banking sector remains in good shape and robust credit growth should continue to support the region’s impressive recovery for a while yet. But while the outlook for Latin America’s banks remains good, several developments warrant careful …
Latin America’s floating currencies have bounced back strongly after a brief wobble in May and, with the notable exception of the Mexican peso, most now look expensive relative to ‘fair value’. Concerns about the competitiveness of non-commodity exporters …
22nd September 2010
After a rapid rebound from last year’s recession, it seems that growth in Latin America is now starting to ease to a more sustainable pace. Monetary tightening has further to run in Chile and Peru, where interest rates are still below their neutral level. …
20th September 2010
The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) last night hiked interest rates by 50bps to 2.5%, as expected. In the near-term, the strong pace of growth means that policymakers will probably continue to raise rates to a more neutral level of 4%. But with concerns over …
17th September 2010
The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) this afternoon announced that it will resume market intervention to stem the appreciation of the peso. History shows that this may be successful in preventing the currency from appreciating further, but it is unlikely …
15th September 2010
Brazilian consumers made a weaker than expected start to Q3, adding support to our view that interest rate hikes are likely to remain off the agenda for the rest of this year. Looking ahead, while consumer spending growth has now shifted to a more …
14th September 2010
Colombian interest rates are converging towards those in Chile and Peru. While the strength of the peso has kept Colombian rates down this year, a more general improvement in policymaking in recent years justifies lower rates over the medium-term. We …
13th September 2010
Last night, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) hiked interest rates by 50bps to 3.0%, as expected. With the economy still growing at a red-hot pace, we expect rates to rise to 4.0% by year-end. But with concerns about a global slowdown likely to …
10th September 2010
The outlook for Latin America remains good and, while the developed world will struggle to grow by 2% next year, we expect the region as a whole to grow by 4%. Brazil, Chile, Peru and Colombia will lead the way, while Venezuela will continue to lag well …
According to a report in this morning’s Financial Times, the Argentine government has performed a sharp u-turn and will now allow the IMF to scrutinise its much-maligned national accounts in an attempt to settle its debt owed to western governments (the …
9th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets still overestimating rate hikes in Chile …
8th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brazil: beware the pitfalls of resource-based development …
7th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brazilian growth slows to a more sustainable pace …
3rd September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brazil: Rates on hold as fears about overheating subside …
2nd September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brazil Election Watch: Becoming a one horse race …
31st August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Peru surges ahead while the outlook for Argentina deteriorates …
27th August 2010
Growth in Brazil has shifted to a more sustainable pace in recent months, but otherwise the region’s recovery remains on track. For now, at least, the major threat to growth stems from global rather than local developments. While we expect the world’s …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brazil: current account financing becoming a concern …
25th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets still overestimating the pace of tightening …
23rd August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mexico: Q2 GDP likely to be as good as it gets …
20th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brazil: shifting to a more sustainable pace of growth …
19th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Chile: Q2 data confirm that the recovery is back on track …
18th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brazil Election Watch: Where's the fiscal giveaway? …
16th August 2010
From the perspective of economic policy, the over-riding priority for Brazil’s new president must be to raise the level of domestic savings. Without this, much-needed investment will have to be funded from overseas, raising the risk that periods of good …
11th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mexican inflation falls again, rate hikes still some way off …
9th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Peru surprises again, rates heading for 3.5% by year-end …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brazilian inflation dragged down by food prices …
6th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Chile's post-earthquake bounce starting to fade …
5th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brazil's industrial slowdown becoming a cause for concern …
3rd August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Argentina is losing competitiveness, and quickly …
29th July 2010
This month’s data have brought fresh signs that the region’s recovery, which has so far been pretty impressive, is starting to lose some of its steam. Brazilian industrial production stagnated in monthon- month terms in May and April’s decline was revised …
27th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Venezuelan rift unlikely to derail the Colombian economy …
23rd July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Market still overestimating pace of Brazilian rate hikes …
22nd July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mexican investment boom is some way off …
20th July 2010
Although the incoming data from Latin America have shown tentative signs that the recovery in the region is losing some of its steam, this is in line with our expectations and does not alter the outlook for monetary policy. Policymakers in Brazil are …
19th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Chilean rates edging up while Mexico's remain on hold …
16th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brazil's consumer boom probably stalled in Q2 …
13th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mexico’s industrial recovery losing some of its steam …
12th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Peruvian central bank stays ahead of the game …
9th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Inflation still benign in Chile and Mexico …
8th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Q2 may have been the high-point for Mexican industry …
6th July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brazil Election Watch: Dilma pledges to build on Lula’s legacy …
2nd July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brazil's recovery losing some of its steam …
1st July 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Chile: Recovery back on track …
30th June 2010
The latest data from the region have been somewhat softer than expected. Industrial production slowed in both Brazil and Mexico last month, while forward looking indicators weakened too. Data on the household side have also disappointed – Brazilian retail …
29th June 2010
Colombia had a relatively ‘good’ crisis but following his victory in Sunday’s election the new President, Juan Manuel Santos, will need to pursue aggressive supply-side reforms to mitigate the threat of ‘Dutch disease’. Top of the list should be measures …
23rd June 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brazil Election Watch: Serra sets out his stall …
22nd June 2010
